[4/30] Prepare for the Tech Winter: Reading the Headwinds of the US Economy and AI Infrastructure
In May 2025, the US economy recorded its worst GDP stagnation since 2022 due to the impact of the tariff war, and headwinds are blowing fiercely for technology companies. Regarding the outlook for AI infrastructure demand, companies such as Super Micro, Snap, and Grab have successively revised or warned about their earnings forecasts. Furthermore, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang appealed for national-level AI promotion policies through his testimony in the US Congress. This article details these key themes from the following six perspectives.
1. The Current State of US GDP Deterioration and the Tariff War
1-1. The Decline in Q1 2025 GDP
The US GDP for the first quarter of 2025 slowed down more than ever compared to the same period last year, and market participants point out that "the economy is buckling under the weight of the tariff war." The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also fell sharply following this announcement, with selling spreading mainly among technology stocks.
1-2. The Impact of the Tariff War
The "tariff war," centered on tariffs against China, has caused confusion in multilateral supply chains, and "import costs have risen, dampening corporate willingness to invest in equipment" (Bloomberg report). As a result, decisions on data center construction and AI server deployment have been temporarily postponed, casting a dark shadow over the performance of related manufacturers.
2. Super Micro's Order Stagnation: Forecasting AI Infrastructure Demand
2-1. Customer Trends Waiting for the Blackwell Transition
Super Micro announced earnings for the latest quarter that were significantly below analyst expectations, revealing that "customers are continuing to digest inventory of older generation chips and are waiting for the announcement of the new generation Blackwell chips" (company statement).
2-2. Server Manufacturer Lead Times and Challenges
Server manufacturers are required to have a lead time of more than two years to support next-generation chips according to their product roadmaps. However, customers are hesitant to adopt them, disliking the "difficulty of developing cooling infrastructure ranging from 140 kilowatts/rack to 600 kilowatts/rack" (from an interview). Manufacturers are being forced to adjust their plans.
3. NVIDIA's Policy Proposals and Manufacturing Strategy
3-1. CEO Jensen Huang's Congressional Testimony
CEO Jensen Huang, who requested an investment of approximately $500 billion in AI infrastructure, emphasized in Congress that "we cannot meet AI demand unless we build new factories ourselves." He also appealed regarding current technology export regulations, stating, "The world has changed fundamentally, so the old rules should be reconsidered."
3-2. The Necessity of Domestic Foundries
The CEO proposed maintaining US competitiveness by bringing foundries (semiconductor contract manufacturing) back to the country. He stated that "policies should boost the spread of AI technology and accelerate the diffusion of technology to the world," and called for large-scale government-led subsidies and incentive systems.
4. Snap's Deteriorating Advertising Revenue and Lack of Guidance
4-1. Background of Guidance Below Expectations
Although Snap's revenue barely exceeded analyst expectations in its Q1 2025 earnings, it refrained from providing guidance for the current quarter. This is due to the fact that "Chinese retailers are already curbing their advertising budgets" (according to a senior analyst), and there are signs of a slowdown in the platform's sales growth.
4-2. Advertiser Spending Trends
Advertisers are increasingly concentrating their funds on major platforms such as Meta, TikTok, and Google, leaving investment in Snap as a secondary priority. In the North American market in particular, monthly active users have decreased from 100 million to 99 million, and the decline in high-profit users is being viewed as a long-term risk.
5. Grab's Upward Revision of Earnings Forecast: Strengths of the Southeast Asian Market
5-1. Diversified Platform Strategy
Southeast Asian ride-hailing and food delivery giant Grab achieved record-high revenue and profitability in the first quarter of 2025, leading to an upward revision of its full-year outlook. A key feature, as noted by Sameer, is that it "provides multiple services within a single app, covering a wide range of users from price-sensitive segments to high-value segments."
5-2. Cost Optimization Through AI Utilization
Grab has introduced AI-assisted tools internally to boost engineer productivity and promote the automation of operations. As a result, the company has successfully balanced hiring restraint with increased productivity, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of labor costs.
6. Future Outlook and Corporate Strategy
6-1. Long-term Perspective on Infrastructure Investment
AI server and data center construction are not considered transient demands, but rather an "infinite race" that will continue for over a decade. Companies need to maintain medium- to long-term capital investment plans without being swayed by short-term performance fluctuations.
6-2. Macro Factors and the Balance of Tech Companies
Against a backdrop of economic slowdown, tariffs, and geopolitical risks, tech companies are required to simultaneously pursue flexible supply chain design and multilateral diversified investment. It can be said that the coordination between policy support and private investment will determine the competitiveness of the US in AI and semiconductors.
While the stalling of the US economy and tariff wars are shaking the earnings outlook for tech companies, there are also companies like NVIDIA that are making policy recommendations, and companies like Grab that are achieving results through region-specific strategies. Not being swayed by short-term economic sentiment and keeping an eye on the evolution of AI infrastructure and advertising platforms from a medium- to long-term perspective will be the key to building the next generation of competitive advantage.
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