2026 AI Adoption and the IPO Pivot — Will Software Stocks Be Winners Again?
While AI-related stocks garnered significant market attention in 2025, the overall performance of software stocks lagged behind the S&P 500. This summary outlines the background of this trend and the outlook for AI adoption and IPO (Initial Public Offering) activity in 2026, based on insights shared by Ashley MacNeill of Vista Equity Partners on CNBC.
1. AI Adoption Moves in Waves — The Context of Software Stock Lag
1-1. Software Stocks in 2025
In 2025, software stocks (as measured by the IGV index) reportedly rose by only about 10%, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of over 16%. This is analyzed as being due to investors not yet seeing clear proof points of AI's true value creation.
MacNeill stated that "the AI adoption cycle moves in waves," noting that while value was initially captured by hardware, infrastructure, and hyperscalers (major cloud providers), the software (application) layer is now set to emerge. This signifies a phase shift where AI implementation and monetization expand from initial infrastructure to actual business and industry-specific applications.
2. The Relationship Between SaaS Companies and AI — The Key is "Agentic" Capabilities
2-1. A Turning Point for the SaaS Model
MacNeill pointed out that how SaaS (Software as a Service) companies transform into AI-centric services is critical. She stated that company valuations may diverge based on how effectively they can integrate "agentic AI models" (AI functions as autonomous agents) rather than just utilizing AI.
For example, the discussion surrounding Salesforce considering a name change symbolizes the company's effort to emphasize the value it provides through AI agents.
2-2. Polarization of Value
Because of this, the software strategy is polarizing between "companies that can convert AI into value creation" and "those that cannot," which is the background for the dispersed performance seen in 2025.
3. Macro Environment and AI Investment — The Impact of Interest Rates
The interest rate environment significantly impacts the cost of capital and the IPO market, but MacNeill noted that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it would have a positive impact on how AI-related companies are valued.
This aligns with general financial theory that lower interest rates reduce the cost of capital and promote investment in new technologies. For software companies with high capital requirements for AI adoption, rate cuts can be considered a "tailwind" that accelerates growth investment.
4. The 2026 IPO Market — Will AI Be the Driver?
4-1. Signs of Recovery in the IPO Market
MacNeill mentioned that the IPO market could become more active in 2026.
The following three points are important:
Investor appetite for funding is increasing.
Companies are also considering the public market as an option for capital raising.
Market stabilization in the second half of 2025 is boosting confidence in IPOs
Furthermore, data citing a nearly 50% year-over-year increase in filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suggests that preparations for IPOs are underway.
4-2. Are IPOs for AI-related companies imminent?
MacNeill also touched on the possibility that large-scale AI companies like OpenAI might enter the IPO market in the future. While not necessarily close enough to go public immediately, he suggests that using public markets for capital raising is an inevitable trend.
5. Private vs. Public — Perspectives on AI Valuation
There is a point being made that "the AI bubble is happening in the private market, not the public market", but MacNeill states that this can be explained by the fact that growth rates are being used as a proxy for AI adoption. In other words, because high valuations are grounded in growth expectations, the current situation is viewed as a shift in valuation metrics taking place first.
Conclusion: 2026 is the "Year of Implementation and Proof"
2025 is a period for laying the foundation for AI adoption and changing valuation cycles
2026 is the year software companies demonstrate AI value through actual figures
The IPO market may be revitalized by the emergence of AI-related companies
All of this depends on how market participants evaluate AI's value creation. 2026 can be called a turning point for whether AI adoption moves from mere concept to clear profit margin improvement and corporate value.
