The Future Map of US Tech: H-1B Reform and NVIDIA's $100 Billion Investment
In recent years, structural changes surrounding the US startup and tech industry have been accelerating rapidly.
One major factor is the review of immigration/residency policies (such as the H-1B visa system) and another is the concentration of massive investment in AI infrastructure. In this article, we will organize and examine the impact on US startups and related companies, changes in industrial structure, and the risks and possibilities, focusing on these two themes.
1. Changes to the H-1B Visa System and Impact on Startups
1-1. Overview of the H-1B Visa System and Recent Modifications
The H-1B visa is a work visa issued to foreigners who take jobs in the US that require specialized knowledge (mainly in STEM fields).
However, in September 2025, a policy (executive order) was announced to impose an additional $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applicants. Under the old system, such a fee was not anticipated, and this modification represents a very significant shift in policy.
The fact that this fee does not apply to already issued/renewed H-1B holders and is limited to new applicants seems to act as a buffer.
1-2. The Blow to Startups and Mid-sized Companies
This system change is considered a blow, especially to startups and mid-sized companies with weak financial and bargaining power.
The cost of trying to hire specialized talent from overseas will jump sharply.
While large companies are highly likely to be able to absorb this cost internally or change their hiring structures, emerging companies do not have that luxury.
According to a report from Northeastern University, the view is that "startups and mid-sized companies will be hit the hardest."
A TechCrunch article expresses criticism, with a startup founder stating that this $100,000 is truly a "talent tariff."
Quoting the statement of an AI startup founder, there was an expression of being "dismayed" rather than "surprised" by such modifications.
1-3. Long-term Structural Changes and Strategic Responses
The impact of the system change will go beyond mere cost burdens, forcing a rethink of startup launches, talent strategies, and location configurations. The following are the main points of discussion and potential responses:
Note that while the arguments surrounding the H-1B visa system also involve political aspects such as "wage suppression by immigrant workers" and "impact on US employment," this article prioritizes the startup perspective.
2. NVIDIA to OpenAI's $100 Billion Investment: Meaning and Debate
2-1. Structure and Aim of the Investment
In September 2025, NVIDIA announced a partnership to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI in stages.
This investment is structured not as a lump sum, but to be triggered as OpenAI rolls out new AI infrastructure in stages, with the first approximately 1 gigawatt expected to be operational by late 2026.
Furthermore, it is envisioned that OpenAI will build and operate data centers using NVIDIA systems, resulting in a 'circular funding and trading relationship' where OpenAI continuously purchases NVIDIA's GPU/accelerator products.
This type of investment structure is known in the past as a method for hardware companies to provide financing to customers (vendor financing), and it has become a subject of debate regarding competitive constraints and the location of risks.
2-2. Expected Effects and Summary of Issues
The expected effects and concerns regarding this massive investment are as follows.
(Positive Expectations)
Securing Scale and First-Mover Advantage
OpenAI is highly likely to gain access to large-scale computing infrastructure, providing it with economies of scale that could overwhelm competing models.Vertically Integrated Expansion Capability
Integrated optimization linking model development, hardware, and data center operations becomes possible, paving the way for cost efficiency and performance optimization.Signaling Effect and Capital Attraction
NVIDIA's backing sends a strong signal to the market, making it easier to induce cooperation from other investors and companies.
(Risks and Concerns)
Monopoly and Competition Restriction Risks
Concerns arise that NVIDIA might prioritize GPU supply to OpenAI or restrict other customers. Regulatory authorities are also turning their attention to antitrust checks.Risk of Overinvestment
If the underlying revenue projections are overly optimistic, the bloating of facilities and capital could lead to debt and cash depletion.Circularity and Transparency of Capital
There may be criticism that it is difficult to determine whether the 'capital rotation' structure of investment, product purchase, and reinvestment is accompanied by actual value creation.Changes in the Competitive Landscape
Competing AI companies such as Anthropic, Google, and Meta may be placed at a relative disadvantage. The article also discussed how much OpenAI's advantage would increase due to NVIDIA's investment and whether it would be disadvantageous for Anthropic.
2-3. Ripple Effects on Industrial Structure and the Industry
This investment has the potential to have a structural impact on the entire AI infrastructure industry, going beyond a simple partnership between two companies.
Capital and CapEx Boom
Vast computing resources are essential to seize the initiative in AI model development, intensifying the zero-sum competition for AI-related CapEx investment as a whole.Trend Toward Hardware-Software Integration
In the past, 'software-first' models were emphasized, but from now on, the integration of both software and hardware will be essential.Changes in the Competitive Environment for Mid-to-Downstream Startups
For startups in the position of procuring GPUs and cloud infrastructure, there may be differences in supply priority and price bargaining power.Focus on Regulation and Competition Policy
Such large-scale partnerships and investments cannot escape the scrutiny of antitrust laws and industrial policy. Issues are arising, particularly regarding the link between NVIDIA's GPU market dominance and its involvement with OpenAI.
3. Implications for Young Startup Executives and Investors
Amidst these developments, I will outline the perspectives and strategies that startup founders and investors (especially those in early-stage investing) should keep in mind.
3-1. Reviewing Value Proposition Modes
In an era where the capital intensity of hardware infrastructure spending is increasing, companies focusing on differentiable 'software/algorithms,' 'model efficiency,' and 'resource-saving learning methods' may have an advantage.
3-2. Risk Response to Cost Structures
Anticipating variable factors such as H-1B visa costs and infrastructure procurement costs, companies should adopt designs that enhance capital efficiency (such as lightweight structures, utilization of cloud/shared resources, and increasing the ratio of variable costs).
3-3. Designing Investor Agreements
When receiving funding, it is desirable to incorporate clauses that allow for the sharing of risks related to infrastructure investment expansion and high capital expenditure (such as caps, installment payments, and milestone-linked investments).
3-4. Flexibility in Scaling Paths
Keep options open for expansion outside the US or into other regions. Alternatively, keep in mind partnerships with cloud GPU vendors and product strategies for layers built on top of them.
Conclusion
Significant cost changes to the H-1B visa system will force startups and mid-sized companies to restructure their talent strategies both immediately and in the long term.
Meanwhile, the $100 billion-scale investment from NVIDIA to OpenAI invites the AI infrastructure race to a higher dimension, potentially impacting the competitive landscape, capital procurement structures, and the regulatory environment.
Young entrepreneurs and investors should adopt designs that are conscious of cost risks, differentiation strategies, and securing flexibility, and caution is required regarding excessive hardware dependence or capital-depleting models.
These two trends have the potential to significantly shake the dynamics of the US tech industry. It is essential to keep a close watch on future developments and refine strategies in response to changes.
