“Unshaken by Sales Slumps”: Investor Mindset and Tesla’s True Value
In recent years, Tesla has consistently been in the spotlight as a growth company. However, deliveries for the second quarter (Q2) of 2025 remained at approximately 110,000 units, falling short of consensus estimates. On the other hand, the stock price has remained resilient, and the investor support base remains solid. This is backed by the potential of the company's “robotaxi” and “Full Self-Driving (FSD) software” visions, as well as expectations for R&D investments fueled by its abundant cash reserves. This article analyzes the situation through five perspectives: (1) Q2 performance and market reaction, (2) factors sharpening investor support, (3) regional trends and the impact of the Chinese market, (4) financial health and investment capacity, and (5) risk factors and future outlook.
1. Q2 Shipment Results and Market Reaction
1-1. Shipment Results: 110,000 Units
In the second quarter of 2025, Tesla announced deliveries of approximately 110,000 units. This result fell below many analyst expectations, putting temporary downward pressure on the stock price. However, because it “surpassed the lowest consensus estimates,” there is a strong view that the “worst-case scenario was avoided.”
1-2. Deviation from Forecasts and Market Evaluation
Craig (a market analyst) pointed out that “110,000 units is still a very significant number given the company's scale,” explaining why the stock avoided a sharp plunge. Furthermore, following the Q2 results, market forecasts have been significantly reset, and the focus of investor evaluation is shifting from a “growth company” to a “vision-realizing company.”
2. Investor Support Base
2-1. Long-term Perspective: The Robotaxi Concept
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management says, “In the long term, we are looking at a future where Tesla operates a robotaxi ride-hailing service.” In the past, a target of 10 million units produced by 2030 was set, but current annual delivery forecasts have realistically settled to around 2 to 3 million units. Even so, the SaaS-style revenue model (FSD software at $100 per month or an $8,000 one-time purchase), premised on delivery volumes more than 10 times higher than competitors, is valued for its high margins.
2-2. FSD Software and High-Margin Strategy
FSD software serves as a continuous revenue source separate from hardware deliveries. “If all 2 million vehicles purchase FSD, we can expect billions of dollars in subscription revenue annually,” Munster emphasizes. Investors see this as enabling a transition to a high-margin business that transcends temporary slumps in delivery numbers.
3. Regional Trends and the Impact of the Chinese Market
3-1. Shipment Trends from the Shanghai Factory
Although monthly shipments from the Shanghai factory in China have been on a downward trend for the past few months, it is said that “even a slight hint of green (increase) is a sign that it has bottomed out.” According to statistics from the China Passenger Car Association, while June figures remain sluggish compared to the same month last year, they are beginning to flatten or show a slight increase compared to the previous month.
3-2. Signs of Bottoming Out and Changes in Management Structure
The view that the “bottom has been reached” is strengthening, as the management structure of the Shanghai factory was recently transferred to direct control by the U.S. headquarters. This is expected to improve productivity and stabilize quality, bringing peace of mind to investors regarding renewed growth in the Chinese market.
4. Financial Health: Cash Position and Investment Capacity
4-1. Approximately $30 Billion in Cash and Equivalents
Tesla held approximately $30 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of the quarter, and it is estimated that “even with 1.6 to 1.7 million deliveries, the company can maintain $3.3 to $3.5 billion in cash through 2025-26.” This is considered sufficient investment capacity for developing autonomous driving technology and launching new vehicle models.
4-2. Effects of Tax Credits and Impact on Stock Price
The U.S. EV tax credit program is expected to provide a rebate of up to $7,500 for vehicles that meet the execution requirements by the end of 2025. While this is expected to lead to a roughly 3% increase in deliveries in the fourth quarter, Gene Munster states that 'front-loaded demand from tax credits should be viewed as noise, and its significant impact on the stock price will be limited.'
5. Risk Factors and Future Outlook
5-1. Competitive Landscape: Waymo, BYD, etc.
In the autonomous driving sector, powerful competitors such as Waymo, Baidu's Apollo, and BYD are emerging. BYD, in particular, is rapidly expanding its sales volume in the Chinese market using price competitiveness as a weapon, and the fact that it is '20-30% cheaper for equivalent models' could put pressure on Tesla's market share.
5-2. Economic/Policy Risks and Brand Risks
U.S.-China relations, supply chain constraints, and even the political statements of CEO Elon Musk could influence the brand image. Caroline (a Bloomberg reporter) points out that 'while interactions with Mr. Trump do not directly affect autonomous driving policy, they act as a noise factor for investor sentiment.'
Although Tesla saw a temporary stagnation in delivery numbers in the second quarter of 2025, its long-term vision, high cash reserves, and expectations for FSD software as a future revenue source are factors maintaining investor support. Moving forward, while keeping a close eye on regional production and delivery trends, competitor movements, and policy risks, the degree of realization of the robotaxi concept and the direction of legal regulations will determine the medium- to long-term trend of the stock price.
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