Decoding the 'First-Day Surge' and 'Aftermath' of 2025 IPOs

We analyze the 'first-day surge' of notable companies that held an IPO (Initial Public Offering) in 2025, as well as the subsequent trajectory of their stock prices as they decline and potentially recover. This report focuses on the 2025 calendar year, covering major technology, healthcare, and space, defense, and industrial companies listed on U.S. (NYSE/Nasdaq) and Hong Kong (HKEX) markets. First, we define the 'first-day surge' as the stock price increase on the first day, calculated as (opening price / offering price) - 1, and clarify terms such as turnover ratio (first-day trading volume / listed shares), free-float ratio, the exercise of greenshoe (over-allotment) options, lock-up periods and early release conditions, and the Quiet Period (analyst coverage release date). Using these indicators, we visualize first-day performance and subsequent price movements to interpret the impact of supply-demand factors and fundamental factors. Data is primarily sourced from company press releases, S-1 filings, exchange data, and reports from firms like Renaissance Capital, and we also incorporate event studies (measuring stock price fluctuations starting from a specific date) as an analytical methodology.