Navigating Regulatory Hurdles: Nvidia to Launch China-Specific Blackwell Chips
Despite being under U.S. export restrictions, Nvidia is developing and planning to launch AI-specific chips for the Chinese market as a strategy to make a comeback. Significant attention is focused on this move, as the company aims to provide products that do not violate regulations by intentionally limiting advanced technology while refining its existing 'Blackwell' architecture.
1. Background: U.S.-China Regulations and Nvidia's Position
1-1. Evolution of U.S. Export Controls
In early 2025, exports of Nvidia's 'H20' chip to China were effectively banned, leading to an inventory write-down of approximately $5.5 billion and a revenue loss of about $15 billion.
The U.S. is taking a particularly strict approach to the export of products containing advanced specifications such as 'High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)' and 'NVLink'.
1-2. Importance of the Chinese Market
China is Nvidia's fourth-largest market, accounting for 13% of annual revenue in fiscal year 2024, or approximately $17.1 billion.
China has the world's largest developer population, and because the economic cost of leaving Nvidia's CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) ecosystem is high, it remains an important market.
2. New China-Specific Chip Strategy
2-1. Product Overview
Targeting a product launch in September 2025, the company plans to ship chips based on the Blackwell RTX Pro 6000, modified to exclude HBM and NVLink.
Sales are expected to begin after receiving approval from both the U.S. and Chinese governments.
2-2. Performance and Pricing
Although the content is limited, Chinese customers are highly motivated to adopt them due to CUDA lock-in, and testing of initial samples is already underway.
The new chip, 'RTX Pro 6000D' (also known as B40), will replace HBM with GDDR7 memory. The price range is expected to be between approximately $6,500 and $8,000.
3. Economic and Regulatory Challenges
3-1. Impact on Inventory and Revenue Structure
Nvidia faces financial risks associated with revaluing existing inventory and changing model configurations. Demand is also expected to be lower than that of the H20.
3-2. Tug-of-War with Politics and Regulations
CEO Jensen Huang is busy engaging in dialogue with both U.S. and Chinese leaders and regulatory authorities. He is coordinating meetings in Beijing with Premier Li Qiang and Vice Premier He Lifeng, and business discussions are also expected to take place in Washington, D.C.
Mr. Huang has criticized U.S. export controls as a "failure," expressing the view that they are a factor accelerating China's independent development.
4. Future Outlook and Strategic Significance
4-1. Maintaining Technology Lock-in
Nvidia is prioritizing the maintenance of its ecosystem, taking into account the "switching costs" for Chinese companies highly dependent on CUDA when they consider moving to new chips.
4-2. Global Supply Chain Optimization
In addition to these products for China, Nvidia is continuing its global expansion despite regulations, with the establishment of an R&D base in Shanghai and the construction of a large-scale facility in Israel currently underway.
4-3. Limits and Risks of Regulatory Evasion
Current regulations are trending toward tightening, and it is highly likely that indirect export routes through Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, and others will be included in the scope of restrictions, challenging long-term strategic flexibility.
Nvidia's plan to introduce AI chips for China is a strategy that balances the dual needs of regulatory compliance and business continuity. Even with limited functionality, a certain level of demand is expected in the Chinese market, where dependence on the CUDA ecosystem is high. However, it will be necessary to adjust product specifications and sales plans while carefully assessing trends in export controls and geopolitical risks. With the CEO himself engaging in negotiations with key figures, negotiation skills and diplomatic strategy will be the keys to the future.
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