The 'New Social Contract for the AI Era' Envisioned by OpenAI: Decoding Policy Proposals for Public Wealth Funds, a Four-Day Workweek, and Expanded Safety Nets
The rapid evolution of AI technology is poised to fundamentally transform the structure of our economy and society. Amidst this, OpenAI, standing at the forefront of AI development, has released a comprehensive set of policy proposals that is unusual for a technology company. From the creation of a public wealth fund and the expansion of safety nets to the reduction of working hours and the development of power infrastructure, the content goes beyond mere opinion on regulation to present a 'new social contract for the AI era.'
In this article, based on Bloomberg Tech's reporting, we will organize the contents of OpenAI's policy proposals while also examining the current state of AI investment from multiple angles, including the SpaceX IPO, the Big Tech earnings season, and the insights found in Jamie Dimon's annual letter.
1. OpenAI's Policy Proposals: What is the 'New Social Contract for the AI Era'?
1-1. Why Policy Proposals Now?
Chris Lehane, OpenAI's Chief Global Affairs Officer, explained the background of these proposals in an interview with Bloomberg Tech.
'This document reflects the work and thinking of OpenAI's researchers. They understand and recognize that this technology is on par with historical general-purpose technologies like the printing press, the internal combustion engine, and electricity.'
According to Lehane, AI policy discussions have tended to fall into a binary opposition between 'laissez-faire' and the 'doomer' view that technology is dangerous and must be managed by a select few. OpenAI aims for a 'third way' in between—presenting effective solutions that fit the current state of technology.
Regarding the timing of the proposals, some view it as influenced by the fact that a new model release is expected within weeks, and that an IPO plan is underway. Lehane himself explained, 'It was necessary to speak out at this time precisely because our researchers understand the direction and speed of this technology.'
1-2. Pillars of the Proposals: Public Wealth Funds and the 'Open Economy'
The proposals are divided into two main sections. One is the 'Open Economy'—an economic framework designed to make AI free, fair, and safe.
Of particular note is the concept of a 'Public Wealth Fund.' This is modeled after the Alaska Permanent Fund, a mechanism that distributes revenue from oil resource extraction to all residents of Alaska as dividends. OpenAI proposes applying this to the AI economy to create a system where the economic benefits brought by AI can be widely enjoyed by the public.
Lehane emphasized, 'AI needs to be understood as a right that everyone in this country, and everyone in the world, has at least the opportunity to participate in. That is the foundation of these proposals.'
Other wide-ranging proposals include reducing working hours (considering a four-day workweek), expanding safety nets, and rapidly upgrading the power grid.
1-3. Analogy to the New Deal: How Far Has the Dialogue with Government Progressed?
Lehane compared the proposals to FDR's 'New Deal.' However, this is not meant to imply a big-government solution, but rather a metaphor in the context of emphasizing the need to 'rebalance capital and labor and maintain the balance of the social contract' as technology accelerates industrialization.
Regarding the progress of specific policy dialogues, he revealed, 'I cannot name names, but we are discussing these concepts with dozens of officials within the administration and senators.' A connection to the 'Trump Accounts' (a type of fund concept) promoted by the Trump administration has also been suggested.
2. Big Tech Earnings Season and the 'Too-Hard Bucket' Problem
2-1. Signs of CapEx Recovery That Investors Want to Identify
While AI policy discussions are accelerating, investors are looking toward the upcoming earnings season. Jed Ellerbroek of Argent Capital Management summarized investor interest in Big Tech—particularly Amazon (AWS), Google (GCP), and Microsoft—as follows:
'Investors want more conviction that high CapEx (capital expenditure) will lead to high revenue and profits. There are early signs, but not enough to reassure investors. This earnings season is a major milestone for them.'
While AWS and GCP may see clear acceleration in the first quarter, Microsoft is said to be in a 'somewhat chaotic situation as it reevaluates the prioritization of its own model development following the renegotiation of its contract with OpenAI.'
2-2. Jamie Dimon's Assessment: 'Not a Bubble, but Winners Are Not Yet Visible'
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon mentioned AI in his annual shareholder letter, stating that while it is 'not a speculative bubble,' he pointed out that 'it is not yet possible to distinguish who will be the winners and who will be the losers in the AI-related industry.'
Mr. Ellerbroek expressed strong empathy for this view.
'His comments accurately described today's market. In the investment environment, some companies fall into the "too-hard bucket." There are too many unanswered questions and too much uncertainty, leading investors to choose to stay on the sidelines. Today, that "too-hard bucket" is much larger than usual.'
Valuations for software companies have compressed significantly, and similar pressure is being applied to industries like insurance brokers, where 'it is difficult to determine whether AI will be a net positive or negative.' On the other hand, Mr. Ellerbroek also stated, 'That "too-hard" situation actually looks like an opportunity for investors.'
3. SpaceX IPO: A $2 Trillion Market Cap 'Bet'
3-1. Current Status Toward a June Listing
One of the biggest events in the 2026 tech market is the SpaceX IPO. According to Bloomberg reports, SpaceX has already submitted a confidential S-1 to the SEC and is aiming for a market capitalization of over $2 trillion. 'Testing the waters' meetings with banks are underway, and a June listing is becoming a realistic possibility.
Bloomberg reporter Bailey Lipschultz explained the assumed timeline leading up to the IPO as follows: about one month for formal comments from the SEC, followed by responses, the publication of the S-1, and a 15-day waiting period, with the listing expected between mid-to-late June.
The fundraising scale is reported to be $75 billion, which is more than double the largest IPO in history. There are plans to allocate approximately 30% to retail investors, and it appears that in addition to sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors, sales efforts are also being directed toward strategic investors.
3-2. Is There a Basis for the Valuation?
Lise Buyer of IPO advisory firm Class Five Group offered a candid view on SpaceX's valuation.
'There is no math that connects current revenue to a $2 trillion market cap. Zero. In other words, this is a bet on the future. It is a bet on a future that is compelling, attractive, holds enormous potential, and is at the same time highly uncertain.'
While it has been reported that the Starlink business could reach up to $20 billion in revenue in 2025, 'trust in the vision' and 'FOMO (fear of missing out)' will still play a major role in justifying a $2 trillion valuation.
Buyer also referred to the classic investment principles of Graham & Dodd, saying, 'In new fields and with companies we have never seen before, there is a chance to gain large profits by getting involved early. However, everyone needs to understand that this is not an investment based on fundamentals, but a speculative bet.'
3-3. Ripple Effects of Large IPOs: Anthropic and OpenAI Are Also Waiting
In 2026, in addition to SpaceX, IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI are also rumored. Mr. Ellerbroek pointed out, 'The most interesting tech question for 2026 is where the money to invest in the SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will come from.'
Buyer also touched on the impact that the success or failure of large IPOs has on the subsequent IPO market as a whole. 'If a large IPO succeeds like Alibaba, companies on the sidelines will step on the gas. If it stumbles at the start like Facebook, companies will return to hibernation. The SpaceX IPO could be the one to open that door.'
4. OpenAI's Organizational Restructuring and Revenue Expansion
4-1. Management Changes: Growing Pains or Strategic Pivot?
Over a long weekend, OpenAI saw a series of management changes. A former Instacart CEO who played a key role in the company's product and business operations is stepping down in the short term, while the CFO is transitioning to a new role overseeing the enterprise deployment of AI business. There were also reports that Steve Mo is stepping down to undergo cancer treatment.
Bloomberg AI editor Seth Figerman pointed out, 'This is a significant organizational restructuring at a time when an IPO plan is underway and one of the largest funding rounds in history is nearing completion.'
4-2. $122 Billion Raised and Rapid Revenue Growth
Lehane characterized the recent $122 billion funding round as a 'vote of confidence in the team, the researchers, and the overall strategy.' In terms of revenue, he noted that while it was $1 billion per quarter in 2024, it has now reached $2 billion per month.
'Compute is Sam's insight. He got there faster than anyone else. It is the most finite resource in the age of intelligence, and that compute is what drives the leap. For every unit of compute, we are effectively generating three times the revenue,' Lehane said.
5. Three Perspectives Tech Investors Should Focus On Now
5-1. The Direction of AI Policy Will Influence the Investment Environment
OpenAI's policy proposals are merely 'conversation starters,' but if ideas like sovereign wealth funds and revisions to labor systems materialize into policy, they will directly impact the business environment and regulatory risks for AI-related companies. It is also necessary to monitor developments in various countries, such as AI literacy policies in Japan and South Korea, government AI integration in Estonia, and the introduction of AI in education in Greece.
5-2. Will Earnings Season Show the 'First Evidence' of CapEx Recovery?
The first-quarter results for AWS and GCP could be a turning point that restores market confidence in Big Tech's CapEx investments. If improvements in free cash flow outlooks are confirmed, it will likely trigger a shift in sentiment toward the latter half of 2026.
5-3. Capital Allocation in Preparation for a Wave of Major IPOs
If the three major IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI materialize in 2026, there could be pressure for capital to flow out of existing tech stocks. However, Ellerbroek of Argent Capital stated, 'We don't pre-trade by preparing cash months in advance,' indicating a cautious stance toward excessive front-running.
