"Bet on the Things That Don't Change"—Jeff Bezos on the Principles of a "Life Without Regrets and Long-Term Thinking"
Speaking at the American Business Forum, Jeff Bezos shared his consistent "way of thinking" in a talk at his old stomping grounds in Miami, covering everything from the founding of Amazon to his space venture, Blue Origin, and AI.
It is a strategy of betting on "what will not change" rather than "what will change," a "way of living to minimize regret," and an attitude of "moving the world forward as an inventor."
Below, we organize his remarks and explain them in a way that business professionals and entrepreneurs can easily apply to their own work.
1. From McDonald's to Space—The Starting Point is the "Front Line" and Long-Term Dreams
Bezos began by reflecting on how, since he was in high school in Miami, he had dreamed of "creating a space company that would move heavy industry off-Earth." At the same time, he was working at a local McDonald's.
"The ketchup dispenser broke, and the whole floor was covered in red ketchup. Who do you think cleaned it up? It was me."
What he learned here is very simple, yet universal.
Being punctual
Starting from the very bottom
Doing the dirty work yourself
The stories of world-class entrepreneurs are often told starting from "founding in a garage," but Bezos himself cites front-line experience like working in a kitchen or cleaning toilets as his starting point.
It is a reminder that every "unicorn" has its starting point in humble operations.
2. The "Regret Minimization Framework"—How to Make Career Decisions
Regarding the decision to found Amazon, Bezos says this:
"If I didn't try, I knew I would be haunted by 'what if' for the rest of my life."
What he used is the so-called "Regret Minimization Framework."
Project yourself forward to when you are 80 or 90 years old.
Look back from there and try to minimize the number of regrets caused by "things you didn't do."
Most regrets arise from "things you didn't do" (abandoned opportunities) rather than "things you did."
"I want to minimize regret in my life. Most regrets come from things you didn't do."
Changing jobs, starting a business, new projects...
This is a way of thinking that can be used in situations where you cannot decide based solely on an Excel "pros and cons" list.
3. A strategy of betting on "things that don't change" rather than change
Many executives try to predict 'what will change in the future,' but Bezos's perspective is the opposite.
“Strategy should be built on things that are stable.”
He starts by thinking about customer needs that will likely remain unchanged even ten years from now.
In the case of Amazon:
Wanting lower prices
Wanting faster delivery
Wanting higher quality
“No one will say in ten years, ‘I love Amazon, but I wish they delivered more slowly.’”
He says this 'things that don't change' thinking can also be applied to city management.
“I love Miami, but I wish there were more crime.”
“I wish ambulances would arrive more slowly.”
“I wish taxes were higher.”
No citizen thinks this way. That is precisely why he argues that one should invest in
improving ambulance arrival times from 11 minutes to 10 to 9
gradually lowering crime rates
and other improvements to stable values. Rather than being swayed by volatile factors,
concentrating resources on 'unchanging needs'—this is the Bezos style of strategic design.
4. Data and Intuition—Neither Alexa nor AWS were 'requested by anyone'
While Bezos states that 'data is essential,' he emphasizes that it is not enough on its own.
“Data doesn't tell you everything. Especially regarding ‘changes that haven't been measured yet.’”
That is where intuition, anecdotes, and gut feeling become important.
Voice assistant "Echo / Alexa"
→ Customers did not request a device to talk to a black cylinder in advanceAWS (Cloud)
→ At the time, almost no one was saying, "Please provide servers as a service for developers"
He explains that these are examples of "diving in with hypotheses and intuition before sufficient data was available."
Furthermore, at Blue Origin, they are exploring "cloud computing in outer space." Since space provides about eight times more solar energy than Earth, the idea of placing data centers in space is technically feasible. However,
"It works technically, but many 'mysteries' remain, such as launch costs."
He states that in such areas of uncertainty, a "wandering" attitude is essential.
5. Blue Origin's ultimate goal: "Moving heavy industry off Earth"
Bezos's vision for space is not a temporary fad. He says he has consistently thought this way since he was in high school.
"If we want to grow civilization and increase the amount of energy available to each person, we must eventually move heavy industry off Earth."
The long-term roadmap envisioned by Blue Origin is:
First, expand functions already partially performed in space, such as communications
Build factories and data centers in space
Procure materials not from Earth, but from the Moon and asteroids
He emphasizes that space has "infinite energy" and "nearly infinite materials," and that Earth is the "only special planet" that must be protected.
"We have sent robotic probes to every planet, but only this one is a 'good planet.' There is no Plan B."
It is a grand project spanning many generations, and it may not even be finished in his children's generation. Even so, he says it is "worth doing."
6. "Permits and licenses" changed by AI and the seeds of a $100 billion business
When asked about AI, Bezos states clearly:
"AI will have the impact that is 'being said.' It will make every industry more productive."
After stating that there are no exceptions, from healthcare (diagnostics and drug discovery) to manufacturing, the area he spoke about most concretely was the government's permitting and licensing process.
I would propose this to the mayor of Miami.
"You should have an AI read building permit drawings and regulations and give a 'yes or no' in 10 seconds."
If the answer is "No",
which 6 items need to be corrected to get a "Yes"
and why that is a problem
should be returned immediately.
In current large-scale developments, interest costs can reach $200,000 to $400,000 per day, so a single day's delay in permits means a massive amount of capital is wasted.
"This will be a $100 billion business."
He went as far as to say this, pointing out that there is a huge white space in theRegTech × AIsector.
7. The "4 Principles" shared by Amazon and Blue Origin
Bezos cites the following four principles that run through both Amazon and Blue Origin.
-
Customer Obsession
Watch the competition, but be "obsessed" with the customer
-
Eagerness to Invent
Now is truly a "Golden Age" of AI and space
Rapid change is actually an advantage for startups
-
Long-Term Thinking
The "way to get rich slowly" that Warren Buffett talked about
Those who can think in 7-year increments have a huge advantage over competitors thinking in 3-year increments
-
Operational Excellence
While praising the conference organizers, he emphasizes the importance of "the attitude of doing the details that no one sees from the outside perfectly, even when no one is watching."
"You know the 'inner details' that no one else notices. Whether or not you can take pride in those parts."
8. "Day 1 Mindset" and Decision Making — Make Decisions Quickly for "One-Way Doors"
Bezos says that while large companies tend to become "bureaucratic," Amazon intentionally continues to talk about the "Day 1" mindset.
They even have a building at headquarters actually named "Day 1."
There are two points.
-
Maintaining a Beginner’s Mind
While being a domain expert, re-examine the world through the "eyes of a toddler who knows nothing."
-
Categorizing decisions into "two types of doors"
High-risk, irreversible decisions: Slowly and carefully
Low-risk, reversible decisions (Two-way door): Decided quickly by one person with high judgment
"Many decisions are reversible. So, decide quickly, and if you are wrong, you can just go back."
Furthermore,
"People who are right a lot are people who change their minds a lot."
he states, and goes as far as to say thatit is foolish not to change your mind when you have obtained new data or analysis.This is a value system where an attitude often criticized as "flip-flopping" in the world of politics becomes a strength in the world of innovation.
9. Aim for "Harmony," not "Work-Life Balance"
Toward the end of the session, when the moderator praised him as a role model for balancing work and private life, Bezos immediately corrected him.
"You should aim for 'harmony,' not balance. The word balance has a nuance of trade-offs."
If you are happy at home, you will be happier at work.
If you take care of your health, your energy for work will also increase
In other words, the message is that it is important to make work and life not a relationship of "competing for resources," but a state where they amplify each other (harmony).
Conclusion: How to apply Bezos's way of thinking to practical work
To summarize Jeff Bezos's talk, it can be broken down into the following practical tips:
Think about important career decisions using "regret minimization"
Build your strategy on "needs that don't change"
In addition to data, listen to "intuition" and "anecdotes" that have not yet appeared in the numbers
Redefine the four pillars—long-term thinking, customer-centricity, inventiveness, and operational excellence—for each business
Categorize decision-making by whether it is "reversible," and make quick decisions on those that are
Design the relationship between work and life as "harmony" rather than "balance"
Whether it's the grand vision of moving heavy industry into space or the concrete idea of using AI to issue building permits in 10 seconds, the root is the same.
As an "inventor," bet on values that don't change and enrich the world little by little over a long time horizon.
That way of thinking may be the truly "reproducible part" of how Bezos went from a high school student in Miami to a global entrepreneur.