Nominal Separation or Effective Control? The Battle Over TikTok's US Business and AI Capital Strategy
The US tech market is experiencing a simultaneous wave of "TikTok sale proposals," "AI infrastructure investment," "semiconductor policy," and "new IPOs." This article traverses the key players (ByteDance/TikTok, Oracle, MGX (UAE), Meta/Alphabet, NVIDIA x Intel, CoreWeave, OpenAI, Qualcomm, Klarna, etc.) and organizes "what is essential" from the perspectives of investors, advertisers, and policymakers.
1. TikTok US Business: The Impact of a $14 Billion Valuation and the "Half-Profit" Structure
Core of the Deal: The Trump administration signed an executive order to sell TikTok's US business to US investors for approximately $14 billion. Oracle, US-based Silver Lake, and the UAE's MGX are discussing becoming anchor investors and joining the board of directors. ByteDance's stake is expected to be limited to less than 20%.
The Reality of "Separation": According to Bloomberg reports, ByteDance could potentially receive about 50% of US TikTok's profits (algorithm licensing fees + remaining equity), leading some to view it as merely a "nominal separation" given the low valuation.
The Presence of UAE Money: It is reported that MGX (Abu Dhabi) plans to hold approximately 15% and a board seat, expanding the political and governance issues.
1-1. Advertiser Decision-Making
Even with "Project Texas"-style data separation and retraining, what advertisers care about is the final CPI/CPC/ROAS. In the short term, a temporary increase in allocation to Meta/YouTube is rational, and if user engagement and advertising effectiveness are maintained, it will shift to an operational mode of re-entry.
2. Meta's "Ads or Subscription": Moving Toward "Consent or Pay" in the UK
Meta is set to expand its ad-free subscription, introduced in the EU, to the UK. Following the UK ICO's guidance, a model of choosing between consent (personalized ads) or payment (ad-free) is becoming acceptable. Prices are reported to be £2.99–£3.99 per month in the UK. Advertisers should prepare for changes in UK inventory and pricing, and are at a stage where they should separate creative/measurement designs by country and jurisdiction.
3. Semiconductors: "Consideration" of a 1-to-1 Domestic Production Rule Moves the Market
Various newspapers reported that the US administration is considering a 1:1 rule where "imported chip volume = domestically produced chip volume," with tariffs if the target is not met. This could force a supply chain reorganization, leading to speculative buying of domestic production boosters like Intel, GlobalFoundries, and TSMC US. However, uncertainties regarding definitions (complexity, types) and implementation grace periods remain high, so the direction of the final policy should be closely watched.
4. NVIDIA x Intel: A "New Class" of PC Integrated Graphics and the Eve of AI PCs
The partnership between NVIDIA and Intel aims to create a "new integrated graphics" for the laptop segment, according to CEO Huang. It is viewed as leading to the expansion of the AI PC base, and Qualcomm also welcomes it as the "moment they have been waiting for" in the context of mobile-originated power efficiency and high performance. The PC supply chain is seeing accelerated competition in combinations of GPUs, CPUs, and NPUs.
5. Will Compute Become a "Commodity"?: CoreWeave and OpenAI
Bloomberg has proposed the "marketization (auctioning) of compute." CoreWeave has built up its contract with OpenAI to a total of 2.24 trillion yen ($22.4 billion) this year, highlighting the duality of its market capitalization exceeding 5 trillion yen (> $50 billion) and its expanding losses. The perspective is that if computing resources can be traded like futures, counterparty risk can be hedged and investment promoted.
5-1. "Circular Funding" Criticism and the Bond Market
Many large deals involve debt financing or mutual ordering, leading to suspicions of "whether funds are circulating among the same players." Verifying whether debt repayment is possible through sustainable cash flow and whether there is backing in power (GW) is the key to checking the "fundamentals."
6. IPO Environment Temperature: The Lesson Shown by Klarna
Klarna went public at $40 on September 10, closing up 15% ($45.82) on the first day, but subsequently fell below $40. Even with buzz and initial supply-demand momentum, when interest rates, geopolitics, and competition overlap, the focus quickly shifts to the resilience of the revenue model—a symbol of the reality of the 2025 IPO market.
7. Autonomous Driving: The "Volume" Battle Between US and Chinese Mega-Players
Waymo is solidifying its foothold in the US, while China's Baidu Apollo is committed to deploying at a scale of 1,000 vehicles across multiple cities. Despite the geopolitical headwinds, their KPI is scaling after the removal of safety drivers. They are aiming for non-linear growth in fleet size through a three-pronged approach of procurement, regulation, and local partnerships.
Summary
The keywords for 2025 are "nominal separation vs. effective control" (TikTok), "capital sustainability" (AI infrastructure), and "regulation-driven inventory and price fluctuations" (Meta). Even if individual developments are flashy, evaluations will ultimately converge on grounded factors: cash flow, power, and regulation. As long as you don't lose sight of these, short-term volatility can be turned into an opportunity.
