Why OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Is Starting to Look "Expensive"—The Backdrop to Investors Quietly Switching to Anthropic

A new turning point is approaching in the battle for supremacy in the AI industry. According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), some of OpenAI's investors are beginning to express skepticism regarding the company's $852 billion valuation. The backdrop to this is the rapid growth of its competitor, Anthropic.

While OpenAI is restructuring its strategy to acquire enterprise customers, Anthropic is seeing its revenue surge, fueled by demand for coding tools. As the landscape surrounding the "top pick" for AI investment shifts, we break down the key points that investors and business professionals should keep in mind.

1. Anthropic's Rapid Growth—The Shock of ARR More Than Tripling in 3 Months

1-1. Momentum Shown by the Numbers

According to the FT report, Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate (ARR) surged from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to approximately $30 billion by the end of March 2026. This represents a more than threefold increase in just one quarter.

This growth is primarily driven by demand in the coding tools sector. The Claude models provided by Anthropic are highly regarded for software development support, and adoption by corporate development teams is reportedly accelerating rapidly.

1-2. A "Reversal of Popularity" in the Secondary Market

The difference in growth rates is clearly reflected in the secondary market. According to the FT, demand for Anthropic shares is "nearly insatiable," while OpenAI shares are being traded at a discount.

The secondary market, where shares of private companies are traded, reflects supply and demand among institutional investors and employees, serving as an indicator to gauge market sentiment regarding future valuations. This "reversal of popularity" here may not be just a temporary phenomenon.

2. OpenAI's $852 Billion—The "Calculated Anxiety" Held by Investors

2-1. A Prerequisite of Over $1.2 Trillion at IPO

OpenAI's most recent funding round, at $122 billion, garnered attention as the largest private company funding in history. However, an investor who has backed both OpenAI and Anthropic, speaking to the FT, offered the following perspective.

To justify OpenAI's current round, one must assume a valuation of over $1.2 trillion at the time of an IPO—meaning that unless one factors in a further increase of more than 40% from the current $852 billion market cap, the return on investment would not be commensurate.

2-2. Why Anthropic's $380 Billion Looks "Relatively Cheap"

Based on this calculation, Anthropic's current valuation of $380 billion appears relatively cheap. The logic is that if one can invest in a company whose ARR has tripled in a quarter at less than half the valuation of OpenAI, it is rational to shift funds toward Anthropic from a risk-reward perspective.

Of course, making investment decisions based solely on valuation comparisons is an oversimplification, but given that such a difference in growth rates has emerged between two companies operating in the same AI sector, it is a natural progression for investors' eyes to turn toward Anthropic.

3. Investor Choice—The Clear Position of Iconiq Capital

3-1. "The Winner Takes All"—Comments by Roy Luo

The stance of investors regarding AI investment is most succinctly expressed by the comments of Iconiq Capital partner Roy Luo. While the firm has invested over $1 billion in Anthropic, its investment in OpenAI remains on a smaller scale.

Luo stated the following to the FT.

"There is room for both companies to coexist. But fundamentally, there is a first-place and second-place dynamic, and the first place wins disproportionately big. We have chosen."

This statement is based on the view that the AI market will have a winner-takes-most structure. And it clearly indicates that Iconiq Capital has chosen Anthropic as that "first place."

3-2. OpenAI's Counterargument

Meanwhile, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar has countered this in an interview with the FT.

"The fact that the $122 billion round, the largest private funding in history, was completed is itself proof of investors' continued confidence."

Indeed, the $122 billion funding amount is on an unprecedented scale, and it is a fact that many institutional investors are betting on OpenAI's future potential. However, as the FT report suggests, it is worth noting that a difference in sentiment is beginning to emerge even among that investor base.

4. Sam Altman's Track Record and Structural Risks

4-1. Lessons from the Y Combinator Era

The FT also touches on episodes from when Sam Altman led Y Combinator (YC). It is said that as a result of aggressive valuation markups at the time, some portfolio companies became financially stuck, while others generated returns that sufficiently justified those valuations.

This history suggests that an overly high valuation does not necessarily guarantee success, and that backing by sustainable growth is essential to justify the valuation.

4-2. OpenAI's Strategic Shift—Focusing on Enterprise

Currently, in addition to ChatGPT for consumers, OpenAI is rapidly increasing its focus on corporate clients (enterprise). According to the FT, while Anthropic is growing rapidly in the coding tools sector, OpenAI is also attempting to strengthen its revenue base by expanding its corporate solutions.

However, whether this strategic shift can close the gap with Anthropic depends on future performance. The enterprise market has long adoption cycles and is characterized by the difficulty of replacing products once they are established, so the key will be whether they can establish a first-mover advantage.

5. Three Perspectives AI Investors Should Consider

5-1. ARR Growth Rate vs. Market Cap "Multiples"

When evaluating an investment target, it is important to check not only absolute revenue but also the relationship between growth rate and market capitalization (valuation multiples). A simple comparison between Anthropic's $30 billion ARR and $380 billion market cap, and OpenAI's $852 billion market cap, shows a difference in the "weight" of the valuation relative to revenue.

However, it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate both companies' revenue composition, profit margins, customer base, and the technical superiority of their models, so it is premature to make a judgment based on ARR alone.

5-2. Does the "First and Second Place Dynamic" Really Hold?

Whether the "first place wins overwhelmingly" structure pointed out by Mr. Luo applies to the AI market has not yet been concluded. There are markets where winners concentrate, such as search engines (Google's dominance) and smartphone OS (the iOS/Android duopoly), and there are markets where multiple players coexist, such as cloud infrastructure (the three-way battle between AWS/Azure/GCP).

Since which pattern the AI foundation model market approaches may change depending on future model performance, ecosystems, and the regulatory environment, a perspective that does not rely excessively on a single scenario is required.

5-3. How to Read Secondary Market Signals

Changes in supply and demand in the secondary market act as a mirror reflecting "insider-like" sentiment toward pre-IPO companies. The surge in demand for Anthropic shares and the discount on OpenAI shares indicate that, at least in the short term, market participants' preferences are shifting. However, because the secondary market has low liquidity and a small number of large trades can significantly move prices, one must be careful not to over-evaluate these signals.

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