Looking Back at the Netherlands Match Through Numbers
Based on the official FIFA match report, this time I would like to tactically look back at that intense 2-2 draw, daringly from the perspective of the Netherlands national team.
Looking at the Netherlands' stats throughout the match, they recorded 529 total passes and an 89% pass completion rate. Looking at the numbers alone, it should have been a game where they were perfectly controlling the rhythm.
However, immediately after the Netherlands took a 2-1 lead in the 64th minute, the "tempo" on the pitch began to visibly fall apart.
The Netherlands' "Pass Stall" Proven by Numbers
The relentless pressing initiated by Japan's front line steadily wore down the stamina of the Dutch midfield in the sweltering heat. This was most notably reflected in the progression of pass counts. The Netherlands' passes, which numbered 280 in the first half alone, plummeted to just 110 in the final 30 minutes of the second half. Even though they were passing the ball, it was no longer to control the game, but had shifted to "forced passing" just to deflect Japan's pressure.
The "Structural Discrepancy" That Struck Manager Koeman in the 75th Minute
At this point, Japan made three substitutions—Yukinari Sugawara, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Koki Ogawa—and switched their system to a two-striker formation. This was the first miscalculation for Manager Koeman.
With Japan's two strikers, Van Dijk and Van Hecke, who were the starting points for the build-up, were pinpointed and restricted. And above all, what caught Manager Koeman's eye was the "fearsome momentum" that appeared on Japan's right flank.
The overwhelming sprints initiated by substitutes Yukinari Sugawara and Junya Ito caused the "number of line breaks by Japan (88 total in the match)" on the match report to jump sharply in the final stages. Of the 24 total crosses Japan recorded in this match, more than half were concentrated in these final 30 minutes of the second half.
Van de Ven's Isolation and Manager Koeman's "Calculation"
At this time, by Japan's left flank taking a high position, Dutch right-back Dumfries was pinned in his own half. As a result, Van de Ven on the left was left exposed to both Ito and Sugawara, forced into a state of complete isolation.
Sensing the limit, Manager Koeman brought on defender Nathan Aké for inside-half Gravenberch in the 81st minute, shifting to a 5-back formation. There must have been a clear "probabilistic calculation" in the manager's mind. Against Japan's crosses from the right, they could intercept with "three players," including Van Dijk in the center.
The Netherlands' expected goals (xG) for this match was only "0.63," and even without breaking down the opponent much, they had scored two goals through individual quality, converting two of their six shots on target. If they could just solidify their defense, they could probabilistically hold on for a 2-1 win, and if things went well, they could snatch a third goal on the counter.
The Fatal Gap Caused by Rational Judgment
However, this supposedly rational judgment created a fatal discrepancy on the pitch. Immediately after shifting to a 5-back, a distortion in judgment (a delay in handing over marks) occurred between Van de Ven, who had moved to the left wing-back position, and Aké, who stood inside him. Japan did not miss that gap. As a result, they finally snatched the second goal from a corner kick, resulting in a dramatic draw.
The Fearsome "Adaptability" of the Japan National Team
This is a scenario I personally constructed from the perspective of the Netherlands national team, but when you unravel the data and timeline like this, the brilliance of the Japan national team's "adaptability"—the ability of the players to see the opponent's situation and change their way of fighting flexibly—is highlighted once again. It was a match where I truly realized the value of a magnificent point, having thrown the calculations of the powerhouse Netherlands into disarray by exploiting the minute discrepancies on the pitch.