[Saturday, October 25] “Elimination Candidates” Derived from AI Pedigree Analysis—Revealing Dangerous Pedigrees with EV Under 20%
💛Introduction
This report is specialized in pedigree analysis .
We quantify the “hidden side of dangerous data” that cannot be seen through pedigree alone using AI statistical analysis.
By comparing it with your own predictions, the goal is to identify “horses you should not buy” = elimination candidates .
Read horse racing through probability, without being swayed by intuition or popularity. We are revealing the dangerous zone of “EV under 20%” derived by Pedigree x Statistical AI.
📉 Pedigree Lower-Rank Analysis Table (EV under 20%)
⚠️ “Dangerous Zone” warned by Pedigree AI
The top 10 horses all have EV under 20% = pedigree compositions with statistically low reliability .
They share the following 3 points👇
The sire line has many explosive or lightweight pedigrees, making them disadvantageous in endurance races.
The dam's sire tends to be weak on power-type courses or in conditions of slightly heavy ground or worse.
They are types prone to poor performance depending on the race development and are easily over-hyped.
Especially on “Tokyo Turf,” there are many horses with a closing style that relies on their final kick,
and a pattern of finishing outside the top 5 frequently occurs when the race pace is slow.
🧩 How to identify “elimination candidates” based on data
The EV (Expected Value) shown by the AI is a numerical value that integrates pedigree, past trends, and track suitability .
Below 20% = “The probability of not finishing well is overwhelmingly higher than the probability of finishing well.”
Even if they are among the top favorites, it is judged that “the basis for buying is weak” data-wise.
EV 20–25% → Caution Zone (pick only under specific conditions)
EV under 20% → Elimination Candidate (avoid as both a core pick and a secondary pick)
💬 Editor's Note
Rather than “looking for horses to buy,” the first step to increasing your recovery rate is to “eliminate horses not to buy.”
Please use this list as that “hidden data.”
AI analysis is ultimately just probability.
By combining it with your on-site intuition, horse physique, and reading of race development,
maximizing your hit rate x recovery rate becomes possible.
🔻 Other provided information
🧩 Pedigree x Jockey Combined EV Analysis Edition
👉 Statistically calculating the compatibility of pedigree + jockey, we reveal “S-Rank Stability” horses to buy and dangerous horses based on jockey adjustments.
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