I'm anxious about my old age, so I started investing in stocks DAY 56 [Practicing Visual Inspection: Kusuri no Madoguchi (5592)]
― Walking with Haru, Age 60 Investment Record Day 56 ―
A day to verify with my own eyes
I watched one video today as well.
By DAY 55, I had narrowed it down to 67 companies.
Today, I picked one company from that list,
Kusuri no Madoguchi (Securities Code: 5592)and
investigated it with my own hands.
I use the term "visual inspection" because
I'm not just leaving it to tools,
but verifying it properly with my own eyes.
📍 Current location on the roadmap
Specific stock selection (DAY 55) → Practicing visual inspection (Today) → Fundamentals analysis summary
📚 What I did today
① Deconstruct the business model
First, I applied it to the 7 elements I learned on DAY 50.
━━ Who is the customer?
Dispensing pharmacies (member stores) and patients receiving prescription drugs.
━━ What value is provided?
For pharmacies: Online reservation system and operational efficiency.
For patients: Ability to reserve prescription drug pickup via smartphone.
━━ Where does the revenue come from?
Monthly usage fees from pharmacies and commissions per prescription received.
It is primarily stock-based revenue.
━━ What are the costs?
System development and maintenance costs, sales expenses,
and M&A-related expenses.
━━ Who are the competitors?
Medley (online medical care)
EM Systems (systems for pharmacies).
━━ What are the strengths?
Collaborates with 20,000 stores nationwide and has a high market share in prescription transmission services.
EPARK brand.
━━ What are the channels?
Internet and smartphone apps.
All 7 filled in.
Stock business✅
Nationwide expansion type✅
Simple✅
This company meets the conditions I learned on DAY 49-50.
⭐️ Point
If you can fill in the 7 elements in your own words, you understand the business. Kusuri no Madoguchi is filled in.
② Confirm the representative
I will look at it using the 4 points from DAY 51.
━━ Background: Representative Director and President
Representative Director and President, Koji Tsutsumi. I haven't confirmed any YouTube presence yet. I made this a homework assignment for later.
━━ Will to generate profit
I opened the performance screen in iSPEED.
Sales: +10.1% compared to the previous term
Next term forecast: +16.8% more
Ordinary profit: +37.4% compared to the previous term
I felt that the management team's growth ambition is reflected in the numbers.✅
━━ Keeping promises
Progress rate for the previous full-year: 100.0%
I also checked the history of earnings forecast revisions.
They have been continuously revising upward the forecasts made at the beginning of the term.
There were no downward revisions. At the very least, it seems they have been steadily achieving their forecasts so far.✅
━━ Shareholding ratio
I checked the list of major shareholders.
Shareholding ratio of President Koji Tsutsumi: 1.6%
Largest shareholder: EPARK, Inc. (37.5%)
This is a △. The president is not the largest shareholder. I need to keep this in mind.
(iSPEED - Major shareholders screen)
③ Dig deeper with the Stock Scouter
I was able to confirm the basic numbers in iSPEED. But I wanted to look a little deeper. I opened the Stock Scouter. Opening an account with Monex Securities was also because I wanted to use this tool.
I looked at the performance trend graph.
Sales have been rising for 5 consecutive years since 2022.
The growth in operating profit is far exceeding sales.
Checking the index graph, with 2022 as 100, at the time of the next fiscal year's forecast:
Net sales: approx. 220 (2.2x)
Operating profit: approx. 420 (4.2x)
While sales have doubled, profit has quadrupled. I also checked the 3-year average growth rate table.
Net sales: 18.4%
Operating profit: 36.7%
Ordinary profit: 41.7%
Net income: 96.2%
Profit is growing at more than double the speed of sales. I felt this was the shape of a company with a maturing business model.
━━ I also checked the cash flow
There was something I was concerned about.
I opened the cash flow trend graph.
Operating CF (ability to earn from core business) has remained positive every period.
However, free CF dropped significantly into the negative in the fiscal year ending March 2025.
Investment CF has increased significantly.
It is possible that there were growth investments such as M&A or capital expenditures.
Free CF is showing a recovery trend for the fiscal year ending March 2026.
It is possible that it was a temporary dip.
However, I felt that this area requires continued close attention.
⭐️ Point: If operating CF is positive, the core business is healthy. However, also look at the movement of free CF together. Determining whether it is temporary or structural is a matter for a little later.
④ Let's calculate the future stock price
It's time to actually use the calculation formula I learned on DAY 52.
━━ Checking the current numbers
I opened the indicator screen on iSPEED.
Current PER (forecast): 13.48x
Current EPS (forecast): 188.90 yen
For confirmation, I tried multiplying them.
13.48 × 188.90 = approx. 2,547 yen. It almost matched the actual stock price. I confirmed with my own eyes that the formula holds true.
━━ Calculating next fiscal year's EPS. Next fiscal year (fiscal year ending March 2027)
Company forecast net income: 3.1 billion yen
Number of issued shares: approx. 11.45 million shares
Dividing the company's forecast net income of 3.1 billion yen by the number of issued shares, the next fiscal year's EPS will be approximately 270.6 yen.
Next fiscal year's EPS = 3.1 billion yen ÷ 11.45 million shares = approx. 270.6 yen
━━ Estimating the future stock price
Future stock price = Next fiscal year's EPS × Current PER
270.6 × 13.48 = approx. 3,648 yen. Compared to the current stock price (approx. 2,547 yen), this calculation suggests there is a possibility of a stock price about 43% higher.
⭐️ Point: However, this is an estimate assuming the PER is maintained as it is now. PER changes depending on market conditions. Read it as a map of possibilities, not a guarantee.
💬 Satsuki's questions and Haru's answers
🌸🌸 Me: "3,600 yen... That's 43% up from the current stock price."
🌱 "However, this is assuming the P/E ratio remains as it is now. If the entire market cools down, the P/E ratio may also drop. Please keep the calculation result as a reference point." - Haru
🌸 Me: "I have to be honest and look at the points that concern me as well."
🌱 "That's right. The fact that the president's shareholding ratio is low, and that the largest shareholder is EPARK. Looking at the good points and the concerning points with the same eyes. That is what inspection is." - Haru
I will summarize the points that concerned me today.
The president's shareholding ratio is low at 1.6%. The largest shareholder is EPARK, not the president.
The cash flow situation is on a recovery trend, but it requires continued monitoring. When looking only at the numbers, I tend to get ahead of myself. But I look at the concerning points with the same eyes. I believe that is what inspection is.
📝 Today's summary in one sentence
I have finished the visual inspection of Kusurino Madoguchi (5592). I broke down the business model, checked the representative, dug deep into the performance using the stock scouter, and calculated the future stock price. It wasn't a difficult task. Just doing it in order. That was all.
The way I see things has changed from before I did it to after I did it.
I watched the video, took notes, and summarized them in an article. A total of 1 hour. 1 hour every day. That's all it takes. I believe that continuing is my greatest talent.
Next time is the final summary of fundamental analysis. I will organize what I have built up since DAY 38 into a single map. I will continue tomorrow as well.
📣 "Friends walking with Haru" is in preparation. I am creating a place where friends who have started investing in the same way can report their progress and support each other's continuation. If you would like to participate, please let me know in the comments 🌸
📚 Click here for related articles for DAY 56
#FundamentalAnalysis #StockAnalysis #KusurinoMadoguchi #InvestmentBeginner #InvestingInYour60s #RetirementAnxiety #StartedWithAI #WalkingHandInHandWithHaru I will continue tomorrow as well.
