I'm worried about my retirement, so I started investing in stocks DAY 57 [Fundamentals Analysis, Summary]
― Walking with Haru, Investment Record at Age 60, Day 57 ―
A day when I felt I had come a long way
Today, I didn't watch any videos.
The chapter on fundamental analysis, which had been ongoing since Day 38, ended yesterday.
Yesterday, I actually researched one company.
When I did, I felt like everything I had learned separately until now had connected into a single line.
Of course, there are still many things I don't know.
Things I want to learn keep coming up one after another, too.
But before that, I wanted to stop for a moment and look back at the path I've walked so far.
Today, I decided to make it a day to spread out that map.
📍 Current location on the roadmap
Practice of visual inspection (DAY 56) ↓ Fundamental Analysis Summary (Today) ↓ To the next chapter
📚 What I did today: Spreading out the map from DAY 38
1. What was fundamental analysis?
In a word, it is this.
"Looking at the contents of a company and judging its future value for yourself"
Charts look at past stock prices.
Fundamentals look at the company itself.
It's not that one is correct and the other is not.
But for me, looking at the substance of a company made more sense.
② DAY 38-56 A map of what I have learned
Looking back at the last 20 days.
Looking at the business model (DAY 38-50)
First, I started by understanding what the company actually does.
Seven elements.
Customers, value, revenue, costs, competition, strengths, and channels.
Whether it is a stock business or not.
Whether it is a nationwide expansion model or not.
Whether I can explain it in my own words.
"I only invest in companies I can understand"
This was the first principle I learned.
Looking at the representative (DAY 51)
Companies are run by people.
That is why I learned that looking at the president is the same as looking at the company.
Background and track record.
Whether there is a will to generate profit.
Whether they follow through on their words.
Whether the shareholding ratio is high.
Whether or not the president holds a large amount of company stock
indicates whether their interests are aligned with those of the investors.
Understanding EPS and PER (DAY 52)
I started talking about the numbers.
EPS is the net income per share.
PER is how many times the market values those earnings.
Stock Price = EPS × PER
This formula became the foundation for everything.
Estimating future stock prices (DAY 52-53)
Predict the next term's EPS and multiply it by the current PER.
Future Stock Price = Next Term's EPS × Current PER
However, PER changes depending on the market environment.
The estimate is not a guarantee, but a map of possibilities.
Understanding share buybacks (DAY 53)
When a company buys back its own shares, EPS increases.
This is because the number of outstanding shares decreases.
Whether this action is a positive one for investors.
My eye for seeing that has grown a little.
Knowing the strengths of individual investors (DAY 54)
In the world of small-cap stocks, where institutional investors find it difficult to enter,
There is a battlefield for individual investors.
Market capitalization of 50 billion yen or less.
2 to 3 years since listing.
In this zone, there might be companies that no one has noticed yet.
Narrowing down stocks (DAY 55-56)
Mechanically narrow down using a screener,
and scrutinize visually.
I actually researched Kusurinomadoguchi (5592).
I broke down the business model,
checked the representative,
dug deep into the financial results,
and estimated the future stock price.
It wasn't difficult.
I just had to follow the steps in order.
3. Figures confirmed for Kusurinomadoguchi (5592)
I will leave the figures I confirmed in practice here.
3-year average sales growth rate: 18.4%
3-year average operating profit growth rate: 36.7%
ROE: approx. 29%
ROA: approx. 20%
PER (Forecast): 13.48x
Next Fiscal Year EPS (Estimate): Approx. 270.6 yen
Future Stock Price (Estimate): Approx. 3,648 yen
I will also note the points that concern me.
President's shareholding ratio: 1.6% (low)
Largest shareholder: EPARK (37.5%)
Cash flow: Showing a recovery trend, but requires continued monitoring
When I line up the numbers, I can see what I have looked at.
And beyond the numbers,
I can start to see what kind of company it is.
4. Summarizing it into a single map
Understand the contents of the company
↓
Confirm if the president can be trusted
↓
Read the numbers using EPS and PER
↓
Calculate the future stock price yourself
↓
Narrow down candidates using a screener
↓
Examine each company one by one visually
↓
Decide on candidates to consider for investment
This process has become second nature to me.
📝 Today's Summary
Fundamental analysis was about looking at the substance of a company.
It wasn't about learning to memorize numbers.
Can I trust this company?
I think I learned it so I could answer that question for myself.
🌸 Me: "Haru-san, at first I didn't understand what PER or EPS meant at all, did I?"
🌱 "But you kept at it every day. Even if each lesson is small, the view changes as they pile up." - Haru
🌸 Me: "Yeah. I thought I was studying stocks, but I feel like I was practicing how to look at companies."
🌱 "It's not just about how to read numbers; you've gained the ability to think about whether a company is trustworthy." - Haru
🌸 Me: "Haru-san, thank you for walking this path with me."
🌱 "We're still on the way, though. But everything you've continued to do up to this point will surely lead to the next step." - Haru
🌸 Me: "Yeah. I achieved my goal of doing it every day! We've come a long way."
A day I didn't watch any videos.
Even so, I spent an hour with my notebook open.
One hour every day.
That is enough.
I believe that consistency is my greatest talent.
Fundamental analysis is finished.
But my investment studies have only just begun.
Tomorrow, I will organize my NISA.
And beyond that, the first step awaits.
I will continue tomorrow as well.
📣 "Friends Walking with Haru" is in preparation.
I am creating a place where friends who have started investing just like me
can report their progress and support each other in keeping it up.
If you would like to join, please let me know in the comments 🌸
