Nikkei Average Soars Over the Weekend | My Holdings Didn't Move Even 1%
On May 22, the Nikkei Stock Average closed up 1,654 yen from the previous day, a rise of 2.68%, hitting a new all-time high for the first time in about a week. The day's market was pushed up by buybacks as investors welcomed the easing of geopolitical risks following reports that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran had ended.
My holding, SoftBank Group, also surged by +11.88%. Despite this, my own portfolio only rose by +0.59% from the previous day. And yesterday, against a market environment of +3.14%, I was at +0.36%. The same thing has happened for two days in a row.
Once is a coincidence, twice is a trend.
Yesterday was +0.36% against +3.14%. Today was +0.59% against +2.68%. Over these two days when the index moved significantly, I have barely participated in either.
If it were just one day, it could be explained by market fluctuations. But if the same gap appears for two consecutive days, it is not a coincidence, but a trend. Moreover, I hold SoftBank Group, which pushed the index up by over 570 yen today. The fact that I hold the biggest driver and yet the overall result was +0.59% means that my other holdings, excluding SBG, performed poorly in total on both days.
A 'Distorted Broad-Based Rally' Revealed My Weaknesses
Today's rise looked like a broad-based rally on the surface, but the reality was skewed. While capital concentrated in AI/semiconductors, electronic components, and optical communications—stocks like Kioxia, Fujikura, and Taiyo Yuden—funds did not flow into real estate stocks, which were discouraged by high long-term interest rates, or insurance stocks, which had been bought recently. funds did not flow into real estate stocks, which were discouraged by high long-term interest rates, or insurance stocks, which had been bought recently.
My satellite portfolio is firmly positioned on this side of the headwind.Growth stocks like SaaS and M&A intermediaries, and real estate resale companies like Star Mica and Mugen Estate. Most of my satellite holdings are in sectors where rising interest rates act as a drag.
One could call this a 'sector coincidence.' But if I have been standing on the side of the headwind for two days in a row, it should no longer be taken as luck, but as an evaluation of the portfolio design itself.
By the way, today's trigger for the SBG surge was the report that its top investment, OpenAI, would soon file for an IPO. I have organized the argument that 'OpenAI's listing could be a counterattack scenario' in detail in an article analyzing the earnings report itself. If you are interested, please take a look here.
I Let the Two-Day Bull Market Pass by with Zero Cash
And today, I couldn't move for the exact same reason as yesterday. I have absolutely no surplus cash.
Yesterday, I wrote that I could have disposed of poor-performing stocks and switched to high-quality stocks that were also down—that kind of restructuring was possible. The composition remains the same even in a bull market like today's. If you don't have cash, you have no choice but to sell something to buy something else. In the end, I let the two-day bull market pass by with zero cash. I had no ammunition to attack, and no ammunition to restructure. While my policy is not to trade frequently, that is a different matter from 'being unable to move because I have no ammunition.'
Now That a Trend Is Visible, the One Point to Move Next
The results of the two days have upgraded what I wrote as a 'suspicion' yesterday to a 'trend.' The fact that my satellite growth stocks and real estate resale stocks are weak points, and that high interest rates are structurally supporting that weakness rather than it being a temporary issue. These two points are no longer hypotheses.
However, even if the entire sector is being sold, there are individual stocks that can be looked at. Instead of rejecting the entire satellite portfolio, I need to sort out which ones are structurally weak—that is what I need to do next.
Amidst the cheers of the all-time high, I was on the sidelines for two days in a row. Rather than frustration, I have a stronger recognition that this is a structure that needs to be inspected. The review of growth stocks has already reached the stage of 'implementation' rather than 'consideration'.
Regarding SoftBank Group, which was the star of the day, and Mugen Estate, which is in the midst of interest rate headwinds, I have posted an article on Value Navi that analyzes the content of their earnings reports in depth. It includes content that delves into the progress rate of actual results versus full-year forecasts, an organization of both sides of the argument, and cross-comparisons with competitors, so I hope those who hold them or are considering them will use it as a basis for their judgment.
