A country where the number of universities increases even as the student population declines

There is a country where the 18-year-old population is shrinking. While the university enrollment rate has also plateaued recently, it is said that universities are still increasing, and the number of students is growing as well.

(I couldn't believe such a country existed)

Since I couldn't believe it, I verified it myself using statistical data.

University data

If you plot the country's 18-year-old population, number of universities, number of students, number of international students, number of faculty and staff, and the estimated number of students entering university (18-year-old population multiplied by the enrollment rate) on a single graph, it looks like this.

The 18-year-old population (blue line) has been declining since its peak of 2.05 million 34 years ago in 1992. The enrollment rate (bottom graph) increased to 61.7% in 2024 after exceeding 55% in 2008, but the growth is not enough to compensate for the decline in the 18-year-old population, and the estimated number of students entering university (brown dotted line) is gradually decreasing.

On the other hand, the number of universities and the number of faculty and staff continue to increase, and the number of university students is also slowly rising. However, it seems that the number of university students is being supported by international students accepted from abroad.

The enrollment rate looks like this. Growth has slowed down, and further increases seem difficult.

University productivity

The number of students per university and the number of students per faculty/staff member are as shown in the graph below.

Since around 1997, the number of students per university and the number of students per faculty/staff member have been gradually declining, and the efficiency of university operations continues to drop.

Just to be sure, I also looked at high school data.

High school data

The number of high school students, the number of high schools, and the number of faculty and staff look like this.

Since 1990, while the number of high school students has decreased rapidly, the number of high schools has only seen a gradual decline. One can imagine that they are significantly under-enrolled.

High school productivity

The number of students per high school and the number of students per faculty/staff member are as shown in the graph below.

Since around 1990, the number of students per high school has decreased rapidly, and the number of students per faculty/staff member has been gradually declining. Operational efficiency in high schools is likely declining as well.

Summary

It seems to be a country where a will to 'somehow maintain the number of schools and faculty/staff' is at work, much like a company that continues to produce products even when there is no demand, or a major power that continues to build apartment complexes even when there is no demand.

Presumably, they must be promoting numerous subsidies and tuition-free programs to attract pupils and students. They are wasting that country's human and economic resources. Countries with this kind of mindset are likely seeing their GDP deteriorate steadily.

🕵️‍♀️ By the way, do you know which country this is talking about?