"Superforecasting": A Compass for Surviving in Uncertain Times

"What on earth is going to happen next?"

I imagine everyone feels anxious about the future at some point.

The global situation is changing rapidly, and unpredictable events are occurring one after another in every field, including politics, the economy, society, and technology.

As symbolized by the term VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity), we are constantly forced to face uncertainty and make decisions while trying to predict the future.

So, is there any way to see even a little bit into the foggy future?

As one answer to that, I would like to introduce the book "Superforecasting" co-authored by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

This book is a volume that presents concrete methods for acquiring the ability to predict the future, or in other words, "superforecasting power."

What is superforecasting power?

"Superforecasting power" is not just a matter of gut feeling or intuition, but the ability to predict the future with surprising accuracy through data-driven analysis and probabilistic thinking.

This book reveals the existence of people called "superforecasters" who have achieved a level of prediction accuracy that surpasses experts and intelligence agency analysts.

How are they able to see into the future?

To explore that secret, a research team led by Mr. Tetlock conducted a large-scale forecasting tournament called the "Good Judgment Project."

In this project, thousands of general participants gathered from all over the world made predictions about the future in various fields, such as politics, the economy, and international relations.

Participants answered questions on an online platform and competed for the accuracy of their predictions.

The research team continuously tracked the participants' prediction accuracy and analyzed their thinking methods and behavioral patterns in an attempt to clarify the characteristics common to superforecasters.

10 Rules for Becoming a Superforecaster

The results of the "Good Judgment Project" revealed a surprising fact.

It is that even ordinary people without special abilities or knowledge can achieve prediction accuracy that surpasses experts by receiving appropriate training.

This book analyzes the thinking methods and behavioral patterns of superforecasters and unravels how they achieve such high prediction accuracy.

And it summarizes that essence as "10 Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters," presenting concrete methods for anyone to acquire superforecasting power.

Forecasting Techniques and Thinking Methods

Superforecasters use the following techniques and thinking methods to make predictions.

Decomposition of problems
Breaking down complex problems into smaller elements to make them easier to analyze. Breaking down complex problems into smaller elements to make them easier to analyze.

Just like solving a giant puzzle, by first grasping the overall picture and then dividing it into small pieces, you can deepen your understanding of the individual pieces and eventually unravel the whole picture.

Classification of known and unknown information
Organizing the information necessary for prediction and clarifying what is known and what is not known.

Probabilistic thinking
Thinking about things in terms of probability rather than in black and white. For example, using expressions that take uncertainty into account, such as "it will happen with a 30% probability."

Utilization of base rates
Setting a base rate as a starting point for prediction by referring to past data or similar cases.

Utilization of external opinions
Revising your own thinking by referring to the opinions and predictions of others.

Continuous updates
Updating predictions whenever new information becomes available.

Fermi estimation
Breaking down problems that seem impossible at first glance into smaller, more manageable parts.

When faced with a big problem, people can inevitably feel overwhelmed and their thinking can stop. However, by breaking down the problem and solving it one by one, the path forward becomes visible.

Dragonfly eyes
Like the compound eyes of a dragonfly, capturing things from multiple perspectives to gain a more comprehensive understanding. If you only look at a problem from one perspective, you may inevitably have a biased view. However, by using dragonfly eyes, you can analyze problems from multiple angles and make more accurate predictions.

Active open-mindedness
Having a high desire for intellectual stimulation and always trying to be open to different perspectives.

Superforecasters possess the flexibility to constantly embrace new information and different perspectives without clinging to their own opinions or ways of thinking.

Non-deterministic thinking
Thinking about things in terms of probability rather than fatalism. Whether something happens is the result of a complex interplay of various factors, and one cannot simply conclude that it was 'fated to happen'.

Superforecasters can make more accurate predictions by always considering multiple possibilities and viewing things through a probabilistic lens.

By mastering these techniques and mindsets and practicing them continuously, anyone can move closer to becoming a superforecaster.

In fact, results have shown that participants in the 'Good Judgment Project' improved their prediction accuracy by learning these principles.

It may seem like a small difference, but through continuous effort, that difference will grow into something significant.

10 Principles for Aspiring Superforecasters

This book introduces '10 Principles for Aspiring Superforecasters' as a concrete method for becoming a superforecaster. The 10 rules are summarized below.

1. Break down problems

2. Distinguish between known and unknown information

3. Combine inside and outside views

4. Adjust the weighting of evidence

5. Be aware of your own biases

6. Think in probabilities

7. Embrace uncertainty

8. Learn from your mistakes

9. Respect the opinions of others

10. Keep learning constantly

The Significance of Superforecasting

Forecasting ability is a crucial skill in every field, including business, politics, medicine, and education. Accurate predictions help avoid risks, seize opportunities, and make better decisions.

For example, in business, accurately predicting market trends and customer needs can increase the success rate of new product development and marketing strategies.

In politics, predicting international affairs and social changes allows for more effective policy formulation and diplomatic negotiations.

In medicine, predicting the onset of diseases and treatment outcomes enables the provision of optimal care for each individual patient.

Superforecasting does not just introduce methods for prediction; it also provides insights intohow to think about uncertaintyandhow to approach decision-making.

The thinking methods introduced in this book can be applied not only to forecasting but also to various situations such as problem-solving and strategic planning.

Conclusion

"Superforecasting" is a book that serves as a compass for navigating uncertain times.

By reading this book, you will be able to enhance your ability to predict the future, make better decisions, and gain insights for living a richer life.

The thinking methods of superforecasters introduced in this book might seem like a special ability at first glance.

However, it is by no means out of reach.

Anyone can approach superforecasting through conscious effort and repeated practice.

Why not pick up this book and polish your ability to predict the future?