Flickering Lights: Between Financial Anxiety and the Performance of Stability (October 20, 2025 - Livermore Jr.'s Monday Market Journal)
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Introduction
The week has begun.
Domestic politics have finally taken shape, and an "stable administration" led by the LDP and Ishin is coming into view.
However, global markets are quietly trembling.
The CFD Nikkei is unexpectedly high at 48,499 yen <As of 7:56>
But I do not feel reassured by this height right now.
My tentative forecast for today is as follows.
Open: 48,400 yen
Close: 47,900 yen
Bearish candle
The "stability of politics" and the "calm of the market"
do not always align.
The "Performance of Reassurance" Brought by Political Stability
The political situation, which was in turmoil until Friday,
has begun to feign "stability" at the start of the week.
"Going with LDP and Ishin"
With this news,
the market breathes a momentary sigh of relief.
But that is not the reassurance of seeing clear policies, but merely the relief of a pause in chaos.
The newspapers will write about a "stable cabinet."
Television will report that "the weak yen is a tailwind."
However, beneath that, the market's breathing is shallow.
Investors are whispering deep in their hearts, "Is this really okay?"
"Quiet Noise" from Overseas
In the United States, scandals at financial institutions are occurring one after another.
JPMorgan, Bank of America, and regional banks.
In all of them, words like interest rate manipulation, fraudulent accounting, and loss processing are flying about,
sending a cold wind into market sentiment.
In particular, the risks of non-bank lending (shadow banking),
known as "private credit," are becoming apparent.
This structure reminds me of the "eve of the subprime crisis" in 2008.
In other words,
just as Japan is buzzing with the "performance of stability",
the shadows of overseas finance are creeping in.
Image of Today's Price Movement
In the morning, buying will lead due to "stability expectations," reaching 48,400 yen.
However, in the afternoon,
the market will price in overseas financial risks, leading to profit-taking sales.
As a result,
a bearish candle leaving a long upper shadow.
It is as if,
“The lights of expectation flicker on for a moment,
only for the shadows of reality to return immediately.”
Such is the day.
Young Livermore's Notebook
The market begins with hope and ends with reality.
It is precisely when politics performs stability
that the market regains the coldness of reality.
The focus this week is
whether the “performance of reassurance” or “financial anxiety” will dominate market sentiment.
The brighter the lights, the deeper the shadows become.
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