🚨 Are you 'feeling like you understand' thanks to the Japan Company Handbook? 'True Corporate Analysis' to wake you up from the Matrix
Main text:
Hello, this is Kato-chan.
This may be sudden, but are you familiar with the classic movie 'The Matrix'?
The protagonist, Neo, is forced to make an ultimate choice: take the 'blue pill' and continue sleeping in the comfortable virtual reality (a world of lies) as he always has, or take the 'red pill' and wake up in the cruel world of truth.
In fact, the exact same thing is happening in today's stock market.
There are countless investors who take the 'blue pill'—news headlines and brokerage reports—and are made to participate in a game of Old Maid played by adults within a comfortable illusion.
However, those of you reading this note right now, who were able to perceive the inner workings of Kioxia or the collapse of the Nikkei Stock Average as 'inevitable consequences' in advance, have already taken the 'red pill.' You are 'Neos' yourselves, now able to visually grasp the real code (truth) of the market from primary sources like 10-Ks and 10-Qs.
Over the past three installments, I have updated classic investment books (Siegel, Malkiel, Graham) to fit the modern market. As a special extra edition, I want to cut into the bible of tools that Japanese investors rely on most as their 'blue pill.'
That is the 'Japan Company Handbook' and the 'US Company Handbook.'
Many investors search for stocks with this book in hand, reading the earnings trends and the few lines of commentary written there to judge, 'So this is the state of this company,' before buying the stock.
However, let me offer some harsh advice from someone who analyzes companies daily by reading SEC disclosure documents (primary sources) directly.
'You should absolutely stop investing while acting like you understand everything based solely on the information in the Company Handbook.'
In this installment, I will talk about the 'correct way to use' the Company Handbook in this information-saturated modern age, and the 'orthodox method of corporate analysis' that a true investor who has taken the red pill should follow.
The Company Handbook is a 'catalog,' not an 'analysis tool'
To be clear, I am not denying the Company Handbook tool itself. If the purpose is screening (finding stocks) to get a sense of 'what kind of companies are in this sector' among the thousands of US stocks, it is an extremely excellent catalog.
However, what is listed there is merely the 'result' of past numbers neatly rounded off, and it is nothing more than secondary information processed by someone else.
The truly important things—the 'enthusiasm of management for self-investment (AI infrastructure, etc.),' the 'intense scale of share buybacks,' and the 'depths of free cash flow'—can never be read from the limited space in the Company Handbook.
The 'three royal steps' of true corporate analysis
So, how do you precisely analyze a company you have found in the Company Handbook?
I will reveal the 3 steps that serve as the 'absolute orthodox method' of corporate analysis that I practice.
Step 1: 'Find' with the Shikiho
First, use the Shikiho as a catalog to pick up ticker symbols (stock codes) of companies that seem to fit your investment theme. The role of the Shikiho is,where it ends.
Step 2: 'Strip bare' with the 10-K (Annual Report)
This is where the real analysis begins. Jump to EDGAR (the US SEC database) and first thoroughly read the most recent '10-K (Annual Report)'.
This is the most important point: looking at the quarterly report (10-Q) right away is a mistake. The 10-Q is merely an unaudited preliminary figure. First, read the '10-K', which has passed the rigorous audit of an independent auditing firm and covers the company's overall picture, business model, and potential risk factors, to build a solid foundation for your analysis.
Step 3: 'Capture the latest changes' with the 10-Q (Quarterly Report)
Only after grasping the company's solid foundation and risks with the 10-K does the latest '10-Q (Quarterly Report)' become useful.
While basing your analysis on the audited foundation, you pursue the 'changes'—such as the latest movements in operating cash flow every three months and how management is deploying capital (share buybacks or business investments).
Conclusion: Once you awaken, there is no going back
Being satisfied with 'finding a good stock' by looking at the Shikiho and buying it as is is like building a house worth tens of millions of yen just by looking at a photo in a catalog.
Find it with the Shikiho,grasp the essence with the audited '10-K', and capture the cash flow with the latest '10-Q'.
This is the true orthodox method for surviving in the modern market without being swayed by information.
Once you take the 'red pill' and know the power of this primary information, you can never return to the shallow world of secondary information.
From now on, I will continue to share the 'real appearance of companies' deciphered from 10-Ks and 10-Qs on this note.
Thank you very much for reading until the end.
If this article provides even a little hint for your investment, please 'like' and follow me!
Everything is for the readers!!!
(Disclaimer: This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute solicitation, investment advice, or a guarantee of the completeness of financial analysis for any specific stock. Investing involves risks. Please be sure to make final investment decisions at your own responsibility.)
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