🌸 Management Future Notebook - Saturday (Issue 80) - Complete Preservation Edition: "The Future Can Only Be Born from Conflict" - Backcasting Learned from the "Invisible Story" of Starbucks' Founding

🌸 Management Future Notebook - Saturday (Issue 80) - Complete Preservation Edition: "The Future Can Only Be Born from Conflict"
-- Backcasting Learned from the "Invisible Story" of Starbucks' Founding

(Written by Akifumi Yasumura / Business Ability Development Co., Ltd.)

■ Saturdays are for delivering "Future Thinking and Stories"

Today, we will unravel the "conflict" that is unavoidable when envisioning the future, focusing on the story of Starbucks founder Howard Schultz.
The future does not begin with hope, but with conflict.
His life quietly teaches us this.

■ Introduction

Backcasting—a way of thinking that determines the present by working backward from the future.
Jobs said, "Look at the future and work backward from there," and Bezos said, "Work backward from customer delight."
However, envisioning the future is not easy.
This is because the very act of envisioning the future is "the work of facing conflict."
The story of Starbucks' founding is a symbol of this.

■ Starbucks began with "conflict"

When Schultz encountered espresso culture in Italy, a future was born within him.
"To create a 'third place' in America."
A place that is neither home nor work,
a place where people can return with peace of mind.
A place where the aroma, conversation, and warmth relax people's hearts.
However, that future collided head-on with "reality."

■ Conflict 1: Collision with culture

In America at the time, the common sense was that coffee should be "cheap and fast."
"Such a culture will not take root."
"Americans don't stop."
"No one will drink expensive coffee."
The vision of the future and the reality of the culture clashed.
This was the first conflict.

■ Conflict 2: Collision with colleagues

Surprisingly,
all the founding members of Starbucks at the time opposed him.
"Starbucks is a specialty bean shop, not a cafe."
"Changing the culture is too risky."
After being "rejected dozens of times,"
still, somewhere in Schultz's heart,
the voice saying "I am not wrong"
did not disappear.
After much agonizing, Schultz
left to realize his own vision.
As a result of backcasting from the future, he let go of his current organization.
This was backcasting itself.

■ Conflict 3: Collision with funding

The concept of a third place was not understood by investors,
and he was rejected dozens of times.
However, Schultz kept talking.
The aroma the moment you enter the shop,
the conversation with the barista,
the sense of security in being called by name,
the atmosphere of a "third place" that is neither home nor work.
He kept talking about the "experience" of the future.
In other words, the story of the future broke through the conflict.

■ Backcasting is "living ahead" in the story of the future

Schultz did not just envision the future.
He "began to live" that future before anyone else.
The sound of the machine grinding coffee beans,
imagining the aroma of the future shop,
picturing the smiles of future customers,
he tried to bring the atmosphere of the future into the present.
That is why his brain entered "preparation mode,"
actions became automated,
colleagues gathered,
the culture changed,
and the world moved.
The future begins to move the moment you envision it.
That is the essence of backcasting.

■ However, people cannot envision the future

Why?
There is one reason.
Because when you envision the future, you see the conflict.
- Collision with culture
- Collision with colleagues
- Collision with funding
- Collision with your own weaknesses
Envisioning the future is
the act of looking directly at these "things you want to avoid."
That is why many people
give up before they can envision the future.
This is also a structure that
always occurs at the scene of corporate transformation.

■ How to overcome conflict

The answer derived from Schultz's story is clear.
1. Understand conflict as a "structure"
There are several types of conflict.
However, those conflicts gradually disappear.

・Supporters will appear
・Small successes become breakthroughs
・Moving forward by letting go
Conflict is not scary once you understand its "type."
When you structure it, you can move forward.
② Drawing the story of the future
Just as Starbucks created the story of the "third place,"
your future vision will also start to move when you draw it as a "story."
The scent of the future, the air of the future, the conversations of the future.
By feeling these in advance,
the brain begins to recognize the future as a "real story."
This is the switch for realizing the future.

■ What we can do to move the future ✍️

The first act to move the future
is not a big decision or a grand investment.
It is "writing."
Writing is the act of converting the future into a "story that the brain begins to prepare for."
The moment you write it down, the brain begins to boot up the OS of the future.

✍️ ■ What should you write? (3 lines are enough)

① Write a "trailer" for the future
② Write about the "conflict" along the way
③ Write about how to overcome that conflict
With just this, the future changes from an "ideal" to a "story."
The future does not begin with action.
It begins with writing.

■ Editor's Note

Drawing the future is not about drawing hope.
It is about drawing conflict.
And only those who can draw conflict
can move the future.

■ Today's Question

What conflict are you avoiding right now?
If you were to draw that conflict as "part of a story,"
what kind of future would begin to move?

😺 Cat's Murmur

"That scent makes me want to go again, meow."

👉 Please send us your thoughts.

yasumura@biz-noukai.com I will definitely reply.

All articles of the Management Future Notebook are here

https://note.com/quiet_gnu5848/n/n02fd172fe229

■ Next Issue Preview

"Why does AI make us feel guilty?"

■ Appendix