熱狂なき過熱――「ミニバブル」がもたらす政権の隘路

　（大都市における）地価が3分の1にまで暴落し、日本経済を30年間凍りつかせたあのバブル崩壊から長い歳月が流れました。皮肉なことに、今また株価の急騰や大都市圏の不動産高騰が世間を賑わせています。
　30年前との違いは、社会全体にあの頃のような「熱狂」がないことです。だからこそ、現在の状況はタチが悪い。実体経済が冷え切ったまま一部の資産だけが膨らむ「ミニ・バブル」であり、その不条理な膨張の先には、当然ながら「破裂」のリスクが文字通り背中合わせで存在しています。
　この危うい経済の舵取りを担う高市総理ですが、その政治姿勢や打ち出される政策には、市場を納得させる合理性が見出せません。風船がこれ以上膨らまなくなったとき、政権を待つのはどんな結末でしょうか。「ミニ・バブル」の破裂という経済的衝撃によって退陣を余儀なくされるのか、それとも政策の機能不全から全方位の支持を失い、自滅的に四面楚歌へ陥るのか。時計の針は、着実に進んでいます。

Editor’s Note: Heat Without Enthusiasm — How a "Mini-Bubble" Could Corner the Administration ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Decades have passed since the collapse of Japan’s asset price bubble in the late 1980s—an era that saw urban land values plummet to a third of their peak and froze the Japanese economy into what became known as the "Lost Decades." Ironically, we are now seeing a massive surge in both stock prices and metropolitan real estate values once again.
The crucial difference from 30 years ago is the lack of societal "enthusiasm." This absence of hype is precisely what makes the current situation so insidious. With the broader real economy remaining stagnant, we are witnessing a "mini-bubble" where only specific asset classes are inflating. The risk of a sudden "burst" is lurking just beneath the surface of this irrational expansion.
Amid this precarious economic tightrope walk, Prime Minister Takaichi’s political stance and economic policies seem to lack market-convincing rationality. When this balloon can no longer expand, what kind of end awaits the administration? Will it be forced out of office by the economic shock of a bursting mini-bubble? Or, even before that happens, will a total policy failure leave the administration completely isolated and trigger its own demise? The clock is ticking.