Why the Number of Visitors to Japan Won't Decrease Even with a Tripled Departure Tax and Quintupled Visa Fees
On July 1, 2026, the tax levied when departing Japan was raised from 1,000 yen to 3,000 yen. On the same day, visa fees for foreigners were also increased: from 3,000 yen to 15,000 yen for single-entry visas, and from 6,000 yen to 30,000 yen for multiple-entry visas. This is said to be the first revision in 48 years. Normally, one would think that if the cost of travel increases, demand will decrease. However, I do not believe this price hike will reduce the number of visitors to Japan. The reason is that the relationship between price and demand in this field does not function according to textbook theory in the first place.
Departure Tax and Visa Fees: What Is the Purpose of the Price Hike?
The departure tax is officially called the "International Tourist Tax" and was introduced in 2019. It is a tax collected from everyone departing Japan (regardless of nationality) per trip, which had previously been 1,000 yen. From July 2026, it will be 3,000 yen. Tax revenue is intended to be used for measures against congestion at tourist destinations (countermeasures for overtourism), the development of multilingual guidance, and policies to disperse tourists to regional areas.
The increase in visa fees applies to foreigners applying for visas at Japanese diplomatic missions abroad for the purpose of visiting Japan. The fees, which had remained largely unchanged for 48 years since 1978, have been significantly raised for the first time. Considering the weak yen and rising prices, one could even say this revision was overdue. The "single-entry visa" went from 3,000 yen to 15,000 yen, and the "multiple-entry visa" went from 6,000 yen to 30,000 yen. While the amounts look shocking, they are still only a fraction of the total travel budget, which includes airfare and hotel costs.
This is not irrelevant to Japanese people either. The departure tax applies to Japanese travelers as well. Every time you go abroad, you will pay 2,000 yen more than before. However, there is a transitional measure where the old tax rate applies to tickets issued on or before June 30, 2026.
I recently had the opportunity to speak with a German acquaintance who plans to come to Japan. When I told them the news about the price hike, their reaction was, "It doesn't bother me that much. The airfare is more expensive anyway." From the perspective of the total cost of the travel experience, the increase in departure tax and visa fees is not a large enough amount to influence the decision.
The Illusion That "Higher Price Means Higher Value"
Economic analyst Manabu Tauchi points this out in his book, "The Illusion of Financial Anxiety."
We tend to fall under the illusion that "the higher the price, the higher the value." This is a clever trap of capitalism.
This is not to justify fraudulent price hikes. It simply means that the very fact that the price has gone up can sometimes strengthen the impression that it is a "place to visit while you still can," rather than reducing interest in the destination. In fact, every time news of a price hike is reported, posts on social media saying "I want to go to Japan before the price goes up" increase. It cannot be denied that the announcement of the price hike itself acts as a form of advertising that triggers last-minute demand.
Desire Is Not Stopped by Minor Price Hikes
Kosuke Shinagawa explains the essence of capitalism in his book "Capitalism and Living" using the term "desire expansion principle."
Capitalism constantly expands the desires of consumers. We are beings forced to desire new things in order to continue consuming.
Once a desire to visit a travel destination is formed, it is different from daily necessities. If the price of rice or electricity goes up, you can reduce the consumption itself, but in the case of travel, it is difficult to replace the "experience of Japan" with something else. The autumn leaves in Kyoto and the food culture in Osaka cannot be experienced in other countries. In economics, this is called low price elasticity. It is the nature of demand not to decrease easily even when prices rise.
What Is Scarier Than Price Hikes Is a Decline in the Quality of the Experience
The real risk for tourist destinations is actually elsewhere, rather than the increase in departure tax or visa fees themselves. It is the decline in satisfaction with the experience due to congestion from overtourism. In that sense, it makes sense that the tax revenue is being used for "measures against congestion at tourist destinations" and "maintenance of tourism resources." The idea of protecting the quality of the experience even if it means raising prices is structurally the same as the strategy of a popular restaurant raising prices to limit the number of customers and increase the satisfaction per person.
Looking only at the news of the price hike and thinking "traveling to Japan has become a bad deal" is merely judging based on a single number: price. What travelers are really looking at is not the amount they pay, but the total volume of the experience they get there. Even if the departure tax becomes 3,000 yen, that total volume remains almost unchanged.
This is not just about tourists. The same structure applies to those of us posting on note. Rather than packing free articles with information worth paying for, thinking about how to create a "density of experience" that matches the price leads to a sense of satisfaction for the reader. Lowering the price is not the only correct answer. We need to decide in advance what we want people to pay for.