[Learning from the Past, Observing the Future] The Day the Footsteps of Eradicating Extreme Poverty Stop—The Future of Countries Without Growth

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Max Roser "The end of progress against extreme poverty?" (Our World in Data, November 17, 2025)

• Summary: An article analyzing the possibility that the progress in reducing extreme poverty over the past few decades may stagnate in the future, based on World Bank projection data. It points out the current situation where the extreme poor are concentrated in countries with stagnant economic growth, and warns that if this continues, the number of people in extreme poverty could start to increase again after 2030.

The astonishing achievements of the past 30 years and what lies behind them

Furano: Looking at this data again, it's truly amazing. In the 35 years from 1990 to 2025, 1.5 billion people have escaped extreme poverty. That calculates to 115,000 people per day.

Phrona: 110,000 people. It's like the population of a small city escaping extreme poverty every single day. When you see it in numbers, it doesn't feel real, but that must be truly historic.

Furano: Yeah. But if we don't understand how this achievement came about, we won't be able to see what's coming next. The article points out the fact that in the early 1990s, the majority of the world's extreme poor lived in countries that would go on to achieve rapid growth.

Phrona: In other words, the timing just happened to be good.

Furano: That might sound a bit blunt (laughs), but that's the essence of it. In 1990, more than two-thirds of the population in China and Indonesia were in extreme poverty. But since then, these countries have grown economically rapidly, and now their extreme poverty rate is below 10%.

Phrona: India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines followed the same trend, right? All of Asia rode the wave of growth.

Furano: Exactly. And it wasn't just Asia; poverty rates also fell with growth in Ghana, Cameroon, Brazil, and Mexico. In short, the key to reducing extreme poverty was the economic growth of the country as a whole.

Phrona: But that's obvious, isn't it? If the economy grows, people's incomes increase.

Furano: That's the theory, but actually achieving it isn't easy. And the problem now is that many of the countries where today's extreme poor live are not growing.

Countries without growth—Madagascar as a mirror

Phrona: What exactly do you mean by 'not growing'?

Furano: The example of Madagascar is symbolic. In this country, the GDP per capita has hardly changed between 1950 and now. It has remained economically flat for over 70 years.

Phrona: 70 years... that's not just stagnation, it's like time has stopped.

Furano: Since the population keeps increasing, the size of the economy itself is growing little by little, but there is no growth per capita. Therefore, the number of people in extreme poverty also increases in proportion to the population growth.

Phrona:Can't that be solved through redistribution? I feel like if we corrected the disparity in wealth, things might change a little.

Furano:That's the difficult part. The article points out that in countries like Madagascar, the average income is below the poverty line. In other words, even if you were to make everyone's income perfectly equal, everyone would still be in a state of extreme poverty.

Phrona:...That is more serious than I imagined.

Furano:The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Malawi, Burundi, and the Central African Republic. In these countries, more than half of the population is in a state of extreme poverty. And because their economies have been stagnant for decades, this situation doesn't change.

Phrona:In other words, without economic growth, you can't escape extreme poverty.

Furano:At the very least, large-scale poverty reduction is impossible. While individual support measures certainly have meaning, economic growth as a whole is necessary to bring about structural change.

What will happen after 2030?

Phrona:So, what will happen from here on out? According to the World Bank's projections.

Furano:Assuming current trends continue, it will decrease from 831 million in 2025 to 793 million in 2030. However, it is projected to turn back to an increase after 2030.

Phrona:It will increase? That means... the trend of the past 30 years will be completely reversed, right?

Furano:Yes. That is the meaning of the article's title, 'The End of Progress in Reducing Extreme Poverty.' Of course, this is a projection, not a prophecy. It's a conditional scenario, assuming current trends continue.

Phrona:But it seems difficult to change that trend.

Furano:The geographical distribution will also change. Thirty years ago, the majority of the extremely poor were in Asia, but now they have shifted to sub-Saharan Africa. This trend will continue, and while extreme poverty in Asia will be almost eliminated through growth, in Africa, the extremely poor population is expected to remain flat or increase due to stagnation and population growth.

Phrona:It's as if the map of progress is being rewritten.

Furano:Yes, I think that's an accurate expression. And this isn't just about the period up to 2040. If incomes don't rise in the poorest countries, extreme poverty will remain a reality.

Relative progress and stagnation at the very bottom

Phrona:But the article also mentioned a bit of hope, didn't it? That if you look at a slightly higher poverty line, such as $5 or $10 a day, there is a possibility that improvements will continue.

Furano:Yes. That is an important point. While progress stops when looking at extreme poverty—that is, the minimum poverty line—improvements are expected to continue when looking at higher standards of living.

Phrona:What does that mean?

Furano:The group that has slightly escaped extreme poverty, for example, people living on $5 a day, are in a position to easily benefit from growth. In countries where economic growth continues, this group will move further up.

Phrona:But, people at the very bottom aren't able to ride the wave of growth in the first place, right?

Furano:That's right. That's why the author of the article says that the argument for setting the international poverty line higher is wrong. While a higher line is certainly necessary, we must not lose sight of the lowest line—the line of extreme poverty. If we do, the fact that those in the most dire situations are being left behind by growth becomes invisible.

Phrona:So, you mean we need multiple poverty lines.

Furano:Yes. If you judge everything by a single standard, things get overlooked. That's why Our World in Data publishes poverty data with various definitions.

Is this a prediction or a warning?

Phrona:But Furano-san, isn't this prediction a bit too pessimistic? The future might change more than this, right?

Furano:No, that's true. As the article emphasizes, this isn't a 'prediction,' but an 'outlook' if current trends continue.

Phrona:What's the difference?

Furano:A prediction tries to guess the future. But this outlook shows the state of our world as it is now. In other words, it's an assessment of the current situation in the form of 'this is what will happen if we do nothing.'

Phrona:Ah, I see. So, this is also a warning.

Furano:Yes. In the past, many countries have broken out of stagnation and onto a growth trajectory. So, the possibility that the poorest countries will reach such a turning point certainly remains.

Phrona:But if that doesn't happen, hundreds of millions of people will continue to live in extreme poverty for decades, right?

Furano:That is the future this article points to.

Growth, redistribution, and another path

Phrona:Then, what should we do? I understand that economic growth is the key, but are there no other methods?

Furano:The article suggests three approaches. First is, as expected, economic growth. This is the most important and leads to a fundamental solution.

Phrona:But that's the problem because it's difficult, isn't it?

Furano:Yes. So, as a second approach, there are social policies and direct support. Even in extremely poor countries, policies targeting the most impoverished people are possible. Historically, social protection policies played an important role in the process of today's wealthy countries escaping poverty.

Phrona:So, targeted support.

Furano:Yes. And the third is international redistribution. In the world today, extremely poor people and extremely wealthy people coexist. Therefore, global redistribution is possible.

Phrona:It's like an organization like GiveDirectly. Delivering cash directly.

Furano:Exactly. This is an option that didn't exist in the past. In the past, almost everyone was poor, so there was no way to redistribute. But now it's different.

Phrona:But that doesn't provide a fundamental solution, does it? It's only temporary support.

Furano:That's right. That's why the article's conclusion is that growth, domestic redistribution, and international redistribution are all necessary. Any one of them is not enough.

The beginning of the end, or a sign of a turning point?

Phrona:The more I hear about this, the heavier it feels. Especially the fact that the achievements of the past 30 years were, in a sense, a product of coincidence.

Furano:Yeah. But rather than coincidence, I should say it was a historical moment. It coincided with the period when China and India steered toward open policies and became integrated into the global economy.

Phrona:So that cycle has completed, and we've moved to the next stage.

Furano:That's right. And in the next stage, countries without growth engines have been left behind. This is a structural problem, so it won't be solved easily.

Phrona:But there is hope, right? At least we are aware of this problem.

Furano:That is the first step. As the author of the article says, this problem has been known for several years, but it hasn't received enough attention. Reducing extreme poverty was one of humanity's greatest achievements in the past few decades. If that progress stops, it will be one of the worst realities of the coming decades.

Phrona:That's why it's important to talk about this issue now.

Furano:I think so. Prediction is not destiny. Current trends don't have to become future facts. Just as many countries have escaped stagnation in the past, there is a possibility that such a turning point will come for the poorest countries today.

Phrona:The question is, what can we do to make that possibility a reality?

Furano:I think it's at least to know, talk about, and keep thinking about this issue. And to keep positioning this issue as a priority for the international community. The first of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was to "end poverty in all its forms everywhere." Unfortunately, the world is clearly off track to achieve this goal. But keeping the goal is meaningful.

Phrona:So we need both hope and the ability to face reality.

Furano:That's right. Not being too optimistic, not being too pessimistic. Just understanding exactly what is happening now and looking for what we can do. I think that's all there is to it.

Summary of Points

• Remarkable achievements of the past 30 years

  • From 1990 to 2025, 1.5 billion people escaped extreme poverty, which calculates to about 115,000 people escaping extreme poverty per day. This was the fastest progress in poverty reduction in human history.

• Geographical Conditions Behind Success

  • In the early 1990s, the majority of the world's extreme poor were concentrated in Asian countries such as China, Indonesia, India, and Bangladesh. As these countries subsequently achieved rapid economic growth, the rate of extreme poverty dropped dramatically. Economic growth was the primary driver of poverty reduction.

• Current Structural Issues

  • Today, many of the extreme poor live in countries where economic growth has been stagnant for a long time, such as Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, and Malawi. In these countries, the extreme poverty population is increasing alongside population growth.

• The Limits of Redistribution

  • In countries like Madagascar, where the average income is below the poverty line, domestic redistribution cannot eliminate extreme poverty. Even if the income of the entire population were perfectly equalized, everyone would still be in a state of extreme poverty. Large-scale poverty reduction is difficult to achieve without economic growth.

• World Bank Projections

  • If current trends continue, the extreme poverty population is projected to decrease from 831 million in 2025 to 793 million in 2030, but it is expected to turn back to an increase after 2030. This signifies the 'end of progress in extreme poverty reduction.'

• Shifts in Geographical Distribution

  • Thirty years ago, the majority of the extreme poor lived in Asia, but now they have shifted to Sub-Saharan Africa. Going forward, while extreme poverty in Asia is expected to be almost entirely eliminated due to economic growth, the extreme poverty population in Africa is expected to remain flat or increase due to stagnation and population growth.

• The Need for Multiple Poverty Lines

  • While progress at the extreme poverty (international poverty) line may stall, improvements are expected to continue when viewed through higher poverty lines, such as $5 or $10 a day. By continuing to track the lowest poverty line, we can visualize the reality that the most destitute people are being left behind by growth.

• A Warning, Not a Prediction

  • These outlooks are not meant to predict the future, but rather to show what will happen if current trends continue. Just as many countries have escaped stagnation in the past, the possibility remains that a turning point could still arrive for the poorest nations.

• Three Approaches

  • To address extreme poverty, we need: (1) the realization of economic growth, (2) support for the most destitute through social policy and direct assistance, and (3) global redistribution (including direct cash transfers like GiveDirectly). A single approach is insufficient; all of these are required.

• The Responsibility of the International Community

  • The UN's Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) No. 1, 'End poverty in all its forms everywhere,' is clearly off track. The stalling of progress in reducing extreme poverty—the greatest achievement of the past few decades—could become one of the worst realities of the coming decades.

Keyword Explanations

[Extreme Poverty]]
A state of living below an internationally defined minimum poverty line. Specifically, it refers to a situation where daily living expenses are extremely low, and there is a lack of basic life infrastructure such as food, access to clean water, basic medical care, and electricity.

[International Poverty Line]]
A poverty threshold set by the World Bank. It is the lowest standard for measuring extreme poverty and is set based on purchasing power parity (PPP). Apart from this, higher poverty lines, such as $5 or $10 a day, are also set to evaluate poverty from multiple perspectives.

[GDP per capita]]
The value obtained by dividing a country's total economic scale (GDP) by its population. It is one of the key indicators for measuring economic wealth and standard of living. If the population grows but the economy does not grow commensurately, GDP per capita will remain flat or decline, and individual living standards will not improve.

[Economic Stagnation]]
A state in which there is little or no economic growth over a long period. In the case of Madagascar, GDP per capita has remained almost unchanged from 1950 to the present, representing over 70 years of continued economic stagnation.

[Sub-Saharan Africa]]
The region of Africa south of the Sahara Desert. Currently, the majority of the world's extreme poor are concentrated in this region. In many countries, long-term economic stagnation combined with high population growth rates makes it difficult to escape extreme poverty.

[Redistribution]]
The act of redistributing income and wealth within society through tax systems and social security programs. This includes both domestic redistribution and international redistribution (such as aid from developed to developing countries). However, in countries where the average income is below the poverty line, domestic redistribution alone cannot eliminate extreme poverty.

[Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)]]
Seventeen international goals adopted by the United Nations in 2015, aimed at being achieved by 2030. The first goal is to "end poverty in all its forms everywhere," positioning the eradication of extreme poverty as the highest priority.

[World Bank]]
An international financial institution that supports international development. It provides loans and technical assistance to developing countries to promote poverty reduction and economic growth. It also collects and analyzes poverty data and conducts economic forecasting; the projections of the extreme poverty population cited in this article are based on World Bank research.

[GiveDirectly]]
A non-profit organization that provides support by sending cash directly to people in the poorest segments of society. Unlike traditional development aid, it achieves efficient support by delivering funds directly to beneficiaries without intermediaries. It is attracting attention as a new form of global redistribution.

[Social Protection Policies]]
Policies targeting the poor and vulnerable, such as cash transfers, food assistance, public healthcare, and educational support. Even in countries with limited economic growth, targeted support for the most impoverished segments can achieve certain results.

This article was first published on the Projeteam, Inc. website.
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