【Free】【August 16, 2025】“Nikkei Futures” — Closed at 43,370 with a small red candle. Why the upward trend remains intact and what numbers to focus on from tomorrow onward

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1. The close was 43,370 (-100), yet the short-term moving averages continue their upward slope.

2. Heavy resistance sits near 43,700, but the 43,500 zone remains the key battleground.

3. A thick volume profile cushion lies between 41,900–41,600.

4. Momentum oscillators hold in the 70s, showing that the rally still has life.

5. Here we break down “what must hold for the uptrend to continue, and what would signal a pause,” all in numbers.

🔗 Full article (note): https://note.com/novel_iguana7053

Daily Summary (Numbers at a glance)

Close: 43,370 (down 100 pts / -0.23%)

Short to mid-term averages

5-day ≈ 43,094 (rising slope)

20-day ≈ 41,427

25-day ≈ 41,905

50-day ≈ 41,610

75-day ≈ 41,315

Momentum indicators: 74.45 / 70.82 (staying high)

RSI(14): 68.66 (midline reference ≈ 62.84)

MACD: +0.693 / +0.204 (histogram expanding, positive)

Pivot (Classic)

R2: 43,750｜R1: 42,480｜P: 41,880

Volume Profile (VPVR): Strong support at 41,900–41,600

Outlook (General Market View, Not Investment Advice)

Upside Scenario

Holding above 43,500 on an hourly close → challenge of 43,700–43,800 (includes pivot R2 43,750).

If momentum oscillators stay near 70 and RSI crosses 70, short covering could drive further gains.

Pause / Shallow Pullback Scenario

Breaking 43,200 with weak rebound → drift toward 42,800–42,500.

41,900 (25-day) is a key divider; losing it could mean testing 41,600–41,300 (50/75-day + volume shelf).

Negation Level (Cancel short-term bullish bias)

Closing below 42,480 (R1) signals fading momentum.

Checklist for the Next Sessions

1. Close above 5-day (≈43,094) with a green candle → basic continuation.

2. RSI near/above 70 → check for longevity of momentum.

3. Rising volume on an upside attempt → validates breakout strength.

Risks to Note

Being an index future, U.S. yields, FX, and global futures can sway intraday moves.

After consecutive green candles, watch for overextension → upper wick pullback. A wide pullback may serve as “healthy breathing.”

▼ Full quantified observation sheet continues below (Paid Section)

1. Scenario Cases (with Triggers)

A: Uptrend continuation

Trigger: Break and hold above 43,500 for 2+ hourly closes

Target: 43,700–43,800 (incl. R2 43,750)

Invalidation: Drop below 43,320 (signals failed breakout)

B: Shallow pullback

Trigger: Break below 43,200 with weak rebound

Target: 42,800–42,500

Invalidation: Quick reclaim of 43,200

C: Deeper correction

Trigger: Close below R1=42,480

Next targets: 41,900 (25d) → 41,600 (50d) → 41,300 (75d)

Invalidation: Reclaim 42,480 next day on strong volume

1. Multi-Timeframe View

Daily: Higher highs/lows, 5-day up, RSI 68.66 (bullish but not extreme).

4H: Watch whether price “stays” above 43,500.

1H: 43,320–43,350 is micro support → holding it favors 43,700 test.

1. Volume Profile Notes

Thick support: 41,900–41,600

Thin zone: 42,900–43,200 → easy glide if broken

Ceiling: 43,700–43,800

1. Cycle Rhythm (≈20 trading days)

5/26 → 6/24 → 7/15 → 8/06: recurring “advance → pause → lift.”

Latest move fits “pause → lift” rhythm.

Next signal: RSI cross + 5-day break.

1. Disclaimer

This is a market observation note, not buy/sell advice.

Adapt thresholds to your own system and risk control.

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