[New Declining Birthrate] Part 3: The Population Explosion Was an 'Exception'

Why the 20th Century Was Too Special

"People used to have many children in the past," "Why can't we do that now?"—these kinds of comparisons are often made in discussions about the declining birthrate.

However, we need to pause here and calmly rethink this. Is it really true that the "past" was normal and the present is abnormal?

To put it briefly, the population growth of the 20th century was an exceptional event in human history.

In this installment, I will organize why the population exploded in the 20th century and why it is remembered as if it were "normal."

Human population hardly increased for a long time

For a long time after the birth of humanity, the population grew only very slowly. Looking at the numbers, that "slowness" stands out.

During this era, epidemics, famines, and wars occurred periodically, and the population went through cycles of increasing, decreasing, and recovering. A society where the population continued to grow stably did not exist for a long time.

What happened in the 20th century

Entering the 20th century, this long-standing premise collapsed all at once.

There are three major factors that supported this explosive growth.

1. Rapid progress in medicine and hygiene

Vaccines, antibiotics, and the development of water and sewage systems—these dramatically increased the probability that children born would survive.

In demography, this phenomenon is called "demographic transition".

Because the birth rate remained high while only the death rate dropped sharply, the population increased all at once.

2. Dramatic improvement in food production

Chemical fertilizers, mechanization, and selective breeding (the so-called "Green Revolution") rapidly resolved food shortages. The constraint of "not being able to feed children even if you have them" was significantly loosened.

3. Population Mobilization by the State

The 20th century was also an era of war, reconstruction, and economic growth. In many countries, population was viewed as national strength itself, family policies encouraging people to "bear and raise children" were promoted, and the fixation of women's roles progressed.

An era when there were too many reasons to "have many children"

The 20th century was, by coincidence, an era where the following conditions were met simultaneously:

• children were less likely to die (rapid decline in mortality rate)

• there was enough food (agricultural revolution)

• the state demanded population (post-war reconstruction and economic growth)

These conditions were met simultaneously.

The figure of 2.27% per year is a speed almost unprecedented in human history. What is important is the point thatthis state was not 'normal'.

We are using an 'exception' as our standard

In current discussions on the declining birthrate, we unconsciously view the population structure of the 20th century as the normal state.

In other words, the 20th-century style of growth is the exception. Put another way, it can be said that we are evaluating the present based on an 'era when the population increased exceptionally'.

That is why it also looks like it is 'returning to the original state'

In modern society, medicine has already matured, birth rates have rationally declined, and we are in a situation where the state does not force population growth.

Whether one views this state as 'abnormal' or as a 'return to a long-term trend' will significantly change the approach to policy.

The declining birthrate is not 'something that has been lost'

If we think of the 20th-century population increase as an 'ideal,' 'normal,' or 'state that should be regained,' the declining birthrate will always look like a 'failure'.

However, from the perspective of the history of civilization and modern history, the declining birthrate can also be seen as the result of a special era coming to an end.

The problem is not that it is decreasing.

What we really need to think about is not that the population is decreasing, but how to design a society based on the premise of a decrease.

Social systems based on the 20th-century model will inevitably become distorted somewhere under conditions of population decline.

Next Episode Preview

Next time, we will cover why women's economic independence lowered the birth rate.

This is not a matter of values, but a matter of structure. We will organize where individual happiness and social sustainability began to diverge.