Why do live concert tickets only let you win for one day in advance lotteries? Insights gained from attending over 100 concerts

I have attended many concerts with audiences ranging from several thousand to tens of thousands of people, such as those by the Sakamichi groups (Nogizaka46, Sakurazaka46, Hinatazaka46).
I believe I have attended over 100 performances in total.
Through these experiences, I have come to notice something.

“Even if you apply for all dates of a multi-day concert in the first advance lottery, you only win for one performance”—this experience keeps repeating itself.

For example, let's say there is a three-day concert at Yokohama Arena.
Even if you apply for all three days in the first advance lottery, you will always only win for one of those performances.
Is this a coincidence, or is there some kind of mechanism behind it? Through my experience of continuously applying for concerts, I have developed several trends and hypotheses.

This time, I would like to organize and summarize them.

Why do tickets only let you win for one day?

In my experience, when a concert is held over multiple days, even if you apply for all the dates, the result is very often that you only win for one day.

Why does this happen? As one hypothesis, I think it is possible that the lottery organizers are intentionally adjusting the “winning probability per registered name.”

The behind-the-scenes of concert management and revenue

Concerts cost more money than you might imagine.
Venue rental fees, staff accommodation, production and decorations, lighting and sound, costume costs—.
And in addition to those, when you include the finer details like equipment transportation, setup costs, and labor costs, a significant amount of cost is incurred.

As artists and management often mention, it is said that for concerts,revenue from ticket sales alone often just breaks even.
Therefore, what becomes important for concerts is “merchandise sales.”

Now, please think about one thing here.

For example, suppose a concert is held for two days,
if Person A wins for both days, will they buy merchandise on both days?

In many cases, I think the answer is “no.”

This is because the merchandise you buy when going to a concert—T-shirts, towels, penlights, fans, etc.—can basically be reused sufficiently once purchased.

In other words,even if the same person attends multiple days, it is highly likely that the number of merchandise purchases will remain at one time.

Let me give a concrete example here.

• Suppose Person A wins for two days. Person A bought a full set of merchandise on the first day. They will attend the concert on the second day as well, but since they already have the necessary merchandise,there is no need to buy more.

• On the other hand,if Person B and Person C win for one day each, both are in a situation where it is theirfirst time attending.
  → It becomes highly likely that both Person B and Person C will buy merchandise on their respective attendance days.

• IfPerson D and Person E also attend for one day each, then merchandise sales will be generated forfour people.

In this way,merchandise sales are overwhelmingly more likely to increase when four attendees come once each rather than one attendee coming twice.

That is precisely why, from the management's perspective, allocating tickets to a larger number of 'different people' is more advantageous for overall revenue than having the same person win for both days; this line of reasoning holds up.

Whether this hypothesis is truly correct is, of course, something only the management knows internally.
However, even considering my own experience and the voices of those around me, I feel that such 'bias in winning' is not unrelated to the revenue structure.

But sometimes you can win for multiple days

However, it is not the case that you 'only win for one day' for every concert. I myself have won for multiple days in advance lotteries.

For example, for the Nogizaka46 Birthday Live held at Nagoya Dome in February 2020, I won for two days in the first round of advance tickets.
For the Nogizaka46 Under Live at Makuhari Messe Event Hall in January 2025, I also won for two out of the three days.

In other words, depending on conditions such as 'the venue's large capacity' or 'the status of the number of applications,' I think it is quite possible to win for multiple days.

Is there a step-by-step 'adjustment' in the lottery?

I suspect that there might be some kind of 'step-by-step adjustment' in the probability of winning tickets.

First, as a premise, I have had the experience of winning multiple performances in the first round of advance tickets before.
In other words, my personal experience is that it is not a system that completely excludes people who have already won.

However, on the other hand, for smaller venues or concerts with higher competition ratios,
there have been many times where the pattern was 'once you win one performance, you don't win anything after that.'

The hypothesis I derived from this is that ticket lotteries are not completely random, but rather 'adjust the winning probability step-by-step' according to the winning status.

Specifically, the following mechanism can be considered.

• In the first round of advance tickets, the lottery is conducted with a relatively flat probability for all applicants.
  -> Since there is no track record of winning or losing yet, everyone is in a state where they have a chance.

• From the second round of the lottery onwards,
  - The winning probability for those who already won in the first round decreases
  - Those who lost in the first round or applied newly are given priority

In other words, even with the same application details, there is a possibility that balance adjustments are being made as the lottery stages progress, in a way that is 'slightly disadvantageous' to winners and 'slightly advantageous' to non-winners.

If this mechanism exists, it is likely built with the intention of ensuring tickets reach more people. It is considered that having two people win for one day each is more fair and makes more sense in terms of merchandise sales, etc., than having one person win for two days.

Of course, this is just a guess based on my own experience and trends.
However, as I have applied many times, the feeling that 'once you win, the second time becomes more distant' is somewhat consistent, which led me to think that such a step-by-step adjustment mechanism might exist.

To those who want to attend more concerts

So far, I have talked about the possibility that step-by-step adjustments are being made in ticket lotteries.
Then, what should you do if you want to attend more concerts?

What I strongly feel from my actual experience is that
'trying for general sales is extremely important.'

General sales are what is known as "first-come, first-served" sales that take place after the various advance lotteries have concluded.
In these general sales, there is basically no manipulation of winning probabilities like in a lottery, and tickets are allocated on a first-come, first-served basis.

In other words, there is absolutely no adjustment like the ones I have described so far, where "your winning probability decreases because you have already won," and it is a world where
the person who accesses and secures the ticket first is the one who gets it.

General sales might feel like a high hurdle.
You need to operate quickly in front of your computer or smartphone, and your connection speed and reaction time also play a role.
As the term "ticket battle" suggests, they can sometimes sell out in a few minutes or even a few dozen seconds.

However, it is still well worth the challenge.

This is because even if you keep losing the lottery, there is definitely a possibility of getting tickets through general sales.

I myself have had the experience many times in the past of "securing tickets for performances I couldn't get in the advance lottery through general sales and attending all the dates."

There were times when I felt like giving up after losing the lottery repeatedly, but
thanks to trying for the final chance of general sales, I have tasted the joy of being able to attend a concert I really wanted to go to many times.

General sales are by no means an "impossible game."
It is certainly difficult, but if you don't try, the probability is zero.

That is why, even if you keep losing the lottery,
"don't give up until the end and try for general sales as well"
is the simplest advice I want to give to those who want to attend more concerts.

Make sure to apply for the advance lottery as well

Having gained a lot of experience, I have gradually come to understand, "This is one of those cases where you can only get one day in the first round."
But even when I think that, I end up applying for the second and third round lotteries anyway.
Thinking, "Maybe I'll win."

And even though I am writing this column myself, I still apply for every single selection process every time.

And then, sometimes, even for the ones I thought I wouldn't win, I somehow end up winning in the general advance sale.

Well, in most cases, I finally secure the ticket in the final first-come, first-served general sale, though...

But if there is a concert you want to go to, I think it is better to apply for all the lotteries you can without worrying or overthinking it.

In conclusion

I am writing this column in the hope that it will be an opportunity for someone who is worried, "Why can't I win?" to think, "Oh, there is this perspective and way of thinking too."

The mechanism of ticket lotteries is not completely visible, but there are certainly things I have felt and thought about from experience, and I would be happy if sharing them could be of even the slightest help to someone.