Is the Death of SaaS a Buying Opportunity for IT Stocks? Companies Destroyed by AI vs. Companies That Embrace AI

The term "death of SaaS" is being used.

It sounds a bit exaggerated.

However, there are points that the market is concerned about.

SaaS refers to software services used via the internet.

For example, these are services that companies pay a monthly fee for, such as sales management, accounting, human resources, chat, customer support, and project management.

Instead of buying software and installing it on a computer like in the past, you log in to a service on the cloud to use it.

For enterprise SaaS, there is often a pricing structure based on a monthly fee per employee.

It is a system where the usage fees paid by the company increase as the number of users grows.

It is said that AI agents might pose a threat to this model.

AI agents are AIs that receive instructions from humans to perform tasks such as researching, inputting, aggregating, replying, and processing.

AI will perform the tasks that humans used to do by opening SaaS screens.

If that happens, the value of traditional SaaS will change.

However, to start with the conclusion, I do not think SaaS will end entirely.

What will become difficult is SaaS that cannot change from its current form.

Companies that only make people use their work screens will be eroded by AI.

On the other hand, companies that control corporate data and business workflows and can incorporate AI into their own services will remain.

Whether IT stocks are a buying opportunity cannot be decided by whether the stock price has fallen.

Is it a company whose value will be eroded by AI?

Or is it a company whose value will increase due to AI?

This is where the difference lies.

Why is SaaS being sold off?

Until now, SaaS was based on the premise that people would open screens and perform tasks.

Entering customer information. Updating project progress. Processing billing data. Replying to inquiries. Registering tasks. Creating reports. Routing internal approvals.

Employees perform these tasks on SaaS platforms.

That is why companies pay subscription fees for the number of users.

More employees. More departments using it. More contracts. SaaS company revenue also grows.

This was the straightforward growth model for traditional SaaS.

However, as AI agents become capable of performing tasks on behalf of humans, the mindset of companies is changing.

Is it really necessary for a person to open a screen to do this work? Is a contract for every person necessary? If AI can process it in the background, how much of the existing SaaS interface is actually needed?

This question is emerging.

The talk of the death of SaaS does not mean that software will become unnecessary.

Can SaaS that assumes human operation maintain the same pricing and growth rates as before?

This is what is being questioned.

SaaS vulnerable to being eroded by AI

What is vulnerable to being eroded by AI is SaaS that simply has users process routine tasks on a screen.

Entering data. Transcribing. Searching. Aggregating. Returning template responses. Updating progress.

These tasks are areas where AI agents are likely to excel.

Of course, not everything will be replaced immediately.

Enterprise systems involve permissions, audits, security, internal rules, and exception handling.

In the field, there will still be tasks that cannot proceed without human judgment.

However, even if only a portion of the work is replaced by AI, it will impact the revenue models of SaaS companies.

What previously required a contract for 10 people can now be done by 5 using AI.

AI will process in the background what humans previously had to touch every day.

When this happens, models where revenue increases based on the number of users will weaken.

Companies that do not have a firm grasp on customer data are in a particularly difficult position.

Companies that are merely making peripheral tasks more convenient, rather than being at the core of operations, are also in trouble.

Companies that cannot find a reason to raise prices even after implementing AI will also struggle.

Simply put, SaaS that only makes tasks more convenient will be cut.

SaaS that does not control the business operations themselves will find it impossible to maintain their pricing in the AI era.

SaaS that can embrace AI

On the other hand, there are SaaS companies that will survive even in the AI era.

The strong ones are companies that control corporate data and business workflows.

Customer information. Transaction history. Billing information. Sales activities. Support history. Internal approvals. Inventory and production data. HR and labor data.

SaaS that possesses this kind of data becomes the foundation for AI.

For AI to perform work, it needs material for judgment.

Which customer to contact. Which project to prioritize. Which inquiry to process. Which document to create. Which figures to base decisions on.

If this information is within the SaaS, that SaaS is not just an input screen.

It becomes the infrastructure that powers AI.

This is the major difference.

SaaS that can be replaced by AI is weak.

SaaS that serves as the foundation for running AI will remain.

Furthermore, pricing models will also change.

Until now, billing based on the number of users has been the standard.

From now on, billing will shift toward processing volume, usage, work reduced, and value closer to outcomes.

Companies that sell how much work they can reduce, rather than just providing a screen to use, are the ones to watch.

Companies that can transform into this will be able to provide value even in the AI era.

Are IT stocks a buying opportunity?

When IT stocks are sold off due to talk of the 'death of SaaS,' it can sometimes look like a buying opportunity.

Companies that were previously highly valued as growth stocks are falling.

They are being sold off collectively due to AI anxiety.

When that happens, it feels like even high-quality IT stocks have become cheap.

However, buying just because the price has dropped is dangerous.

Even with the same decline, the underlying situation is different.

If they are only being sold due to temporary AI anxiety, it can be a buying opportunity.

But if the business model itself is being eroded, I won't buy, even if it looks cheap.

If it were me, I would first check these five things.

・Is the number of users or contracts growing?
・Has the churn rate worsened?
・Are unit prices being maintained or increased?
・Has the operating profit margin dropped significantly due to AI investment?
・Are AI features contributing to revenue or retention rates?

I will not buy companies where these metrics are deteriorating, even if the stock price falls.

The number of users is not growing.

Churn rates are rising.

Unit prices are falling.

Costs for AI integration are only increasing.

Operating profit margins are dropping.

In this scenario, regardless of the term 'death of SaaS,' I would treat them with caution as investment targets.

IT stocks are easily bought based on expectations.

Therefore, when those expectations fade, they drop significantly.

Is that decline just temporary anxiety?

Or is it a decline that has begun to factor in changes to the business model?

If you get this wrong, you will get caught in the downturn of growth stocks.

Conditions to consider as a buying opportunity

If you are considering IT stocks as a buying opportunity, there are conditions.

Possessing corporate data.

Being deeply integrated into core business operations.

Customers cannot easily switch to a competitor.

The value of the service increases the more AI is used.

The ability to shift the pricing structure from per-user contracts to usage-based or outcome-based models.

Companies that meet these conditions will remain strong even in the AI era.

Conversely, I avoid companies that merely provide a workspace interface.

Where people have to input data, search, aggregate, or perform routine tasks.

Companies that rely on value here are highly likely to be eroded by AI.

SaaS is not ending; it is changing its form.

From SaaS that sells screens to SaaS that reduces workloads.

From per-user contracts to billing based on usage or results.

From tools operated by people to foundations where AI advances work.

I consider only companies that can adapt to this change as buying opportunities.

Summary

You do not need to avoid all IT stocks just because of the phrase 'the death of SaaS'.

However, just because prices are falling, it is also wrong to think everything is a buying opportunity.

As AI agents spread, SaaS that assumes people will open screens to perform tasks will face difficulties.

Services that only make input, aggregation, search, and routine processing convenient will be eroded by AI.

On the other hand, companies that control corporate data and business workflows will remain.

Companies that incorporate AI into their own services and can provide value closer to work reduction or results will also remain.

I do not consider the death of SaaS to be 'news to avoid all IT stocks'.

I consider it news to re-select IT companies that will survive in the AI era.

Therefore, what you should look at is not the rate of stock price decline.

Is it a company that will be destroyed by AI?

Is it a company that will become stronger by incorporating AI?

This is the point.

I will not buy just because the stock price has fallen.

Even if sold off due to AI anxiety, companies whose user counts, unit prices, churn rates, and operating margins remain intact are candidates.

Conversely, avoid companies where only AI-related costs increase without translating into sales or profits.

SaaS is not ending; it is changing its form.

Companies that cannot keep up with that change will face a difficult time.

However, companies that incorporate AI and remain at the center of corporate data and operations will become stronger.

Whether IT stocks are a buying opportunity is something I will judge only after confirming those points.