The Future of Humanity Opened by Lunar Commons
Introduction
In the previous issue, we looked at how the operation of the International Space Station aligns with the principles of successful commons and has been operated peacefully for decades under international cooperation, as well as the relationship between space food commons, water commons, and astronauts. In this issue, while referring to those examples, we will explore the possibilities for the sustainable use of lunar commons.
The Rise of the Lunar Industry
The era has arrived where humanity is aiming for the Moon once again. More than 50 years have passed since the Apollo 11 moon landing in 1969, and humanity is attempting to return to the lunar surface through projects such as the US-led Artemis program [1]. The possibility of water on the Moon was discovered in the 1990s, and in 2018, evidence of ice on the Moon was found for the first time [2]. Water can be used not only for drinking and hydroponics but also as rocket fuel if converted into oxygen and hydrogen. Furthermore, the potential for resources such as large amounts of rare metals and Helium-3, which is used for nuclear fusion, has been confirmed on the Moon. By utilizing these, concepts for lunar habitation and relay bases to Mars are emerging.
NewSpace companies [3] that excel in the lunar environment, which has gravity, are entering the market, and in Japan, many companies from the automotive, construction, and plant industries are also entering the lunar business. In the United States, a venture company called Moon Express, which mines lunar ice, has even been born.
The Outer Space Treaty and Lunar Resources
As the use of the lunar surface expands, new governance challenges are emerging. The Outer Space Treaty (which entered into force in 1967) stipulates that "outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty." However, there is no mention of the ownership of lunar resources, and there is room for interpretation regarding the assertion of such rights. It also stipulates that "the exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be the province of all mankind." [4].
On the lunar surface, since places where ice and sunlight can be obtained are limited, it is possible that rare areas where both water and sunlight can be obtained for exploration purposes could be occupied [5]. Apart from the US-led Artemis program, China and Russia are planning to build a manned lunar space station and have plans for long-term manned activities from 2026 to 2045 [6]. Furthermore, in June 2024, a Chinese lunar probe landed on the far side of the Moon and brought back resources from the far side to Earth for the first time in the world [7].
In response to this intensification of competition between nations, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) is considering the formulation of rules regarding space resource exploration. In 2021, a working group was established, and it was decided that discussions would be held over five years [8].
Lunar Resources as Commons
Lunar resources are a shared property that belongs to no one; they are truly a commons. Elinor Ostrom, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for her work on the commons, points out that "compared to traditional commons such as forests and rivers, global commons such as the oceans and Antarctica are enormous, but traditional commons can be used as a reference." She also notes that "behind every successful commons, there is extremely deep and broad communication, and using examples of failures as well as successes is the key to success" [9].
For example, the enclosure of the oceans began long ago with the treaties between Spain and Portugal to divide the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans (1494, 1529), and currently, the principle of peaceful use is stipulated for almost the entire world under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS, 1982). However, the scope of EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zones) can overlap between nations, and there are cases where conflict resolution is difficult. This is because they do not satisfy Ostrom's success principles: (1) "clearly defined boundaries" and (6) "simple conflict resolution mechanisms."
Analyzing the successes and failures of commons management in the oceans and Antarctica, as well as comparing them with Ostrom's commons success principles (Table 1), can lead to exploring the possibilities of lunar commons. In terms of peaceful operation through international cooperation, the operation of the International Space Station as a commons (see the previous issue) will also be a useful reference.
For the peaceful use of lunar commons, it is necessary to formulate binding international rules while ensuring consistency with the Outer Space Treaty, based on deep and broad consultations with stakeholders. Following the United States, Luxembourg, and the UAE, Japan enacted the Space Resources Act in 2021, recognizing the ownership rights of private companies to resources collected on celestial bodies. Japan is also advancing lunar landings by private companies, and we would like to lead the discussions and rule-making regarding space resources and lunar commons internationally with an all-Japan approach.
Commons in Lunar Habitation
The Lunar Industry Vision Council has set a vision of 1,000 people living on the Moon by 2040 [10]. Once lunar habitation begins, various lunar commons will emerge. Successful commons are not operated by either the "government" or the "private sector," but are flexibly operated according to regional characteristics by "self-governing organizations" that have the characteristics of both (see here). Such methods of managing the commons provide important implications for lunar commons as well.
As a new society is built on the Moon, lunar commons will include not only mineral resources such as water, regolith, and Helium-3, but also various new commons such as cultivated plants, cultured meat, and the education and medical care received by people born and raised on the Moon. For example, since water is a precious resource on the Moon, it will be purified and reused repeatedly, like the water on the International Space Station, and as astronauts say, "today's urine is tomorrow's coffee." Urine inside the body is one's own (private property), but urine that has been excreted is everyone's (a commons). Rules regarding the balance between the labor burden of plant cultivation or cultured meat production and the rights obtained will also be necessary.
In the management of lunar commons, it is important to adopt a flexible and autonomous management style tailored to the characteristics of the Moon, while referring to the successes and failures of Earth's water commons, agricultural commons, and educational commons. The concepts (thoughts) and technologies that value water and food on the Moon will also lead to new lives and businesses on Earth. For example, food production technology and water purification technology in an environment with limited soil and water, such as the Moon, will lead to the resolution of food shortages and environmental problems on Earth.
Thinking about Space is Thinking about Earth
When we look at space, we find hints for thinking about the future of Earth. The construction of a lunar city requires the consideration of spatial design, energy systems, economic systems, and social systems in an environment with limited resources. Mobility such as rovers and the efficient use of water and energy are also challenges. Addressing these issues may lead to the resolution of urban problems on Earth where resources and energy are tight, the planning of new smart cities, and the creation of new businesses and services. Furthermore, hints for a new capitalism or democracy may also emerge.
Einstein said, "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." When thinking about Earth-level issues, taking a step back and gaining a space-level perspective can sometimes lead to solutions.
Thinking about the space commons provides an opportunity to rethink the terrestrial commons. On Earth, we use shared resources such as water, land, and air almost without limit, and we are facing crises such as depletion and pollution. However, thinking about life and society in space, where resources are limited, gives us hints for a sustainable and well-being life on Earth. Thinking about space is thinking about the future of the Earth. Thinking about the space commons means thinking about new ways of living, new businesses, and new forms of society on Earth. We will continue to explore the space commons that will open up the future of humanity. Aiming for a renaissance of the space commons.
Text: Tomo Sano, Thought Leadership Department, IISE
Worked at JAXA for many years, dedicating efforts to creating new space businesses aimed at solving social issues. Currently in his present position after working at the Cabinet Office (promoting social implementation programs using satellites). Ph.D. in Science.
References
[1] M. Smith et al., “The Artemis Program: An overview of NASA’s activities to return humans to the moon”, IEEE Aerospace Conference, 2020.
[2] S. Li et al., “Direct evidence of surface exposed water ice in the lunar polar regions”, PNAS, 2018, 115(36), 8907-8912
[3] D. Paikowsky, “What is new space? The changing ecosystem of global activity”, New space, 2017, Vol.5, No.2
[4] Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, United Nations, 1967 Oct. 10.
[5] M. Elvis,” The Peaks of Eternal Light: a Near-term Property Issue on the Moon”, arXiv, 2016 Aug 2
[6] Space News, 2021 Apr 26 Early ILRS outline (accessed on 2024 Sep 13)
[7] L. Yangting, et al., “Return to the Moon: New perspectives on lunar exploration”, Science Bulletin, 2024, 2136-2148.
[8] A/AC.105/L.322.Add.6, Proposal on the mandate, terms of reference, and workplan and methods of work for the working group established under the Legal Subcommittee agenda item entitled “General exchange of views on potential legal models for activities in the exploration, exploitation and utilization of space resources”
[9] E. Ostrom, et. Al., 1999, “Revisiting the Commons: Local Lessons, Global Challenges”, Science, Vol284, No.5412, 278-282
[10] Lunar Industry Vision -Towards the Era of Planet 6.0-, July 2021, Lunar Industry Vision Council