Wartime Economy Research 019

Assuming a hypothetical scenario where Country C begins an attack on Japan, we will simulate what kind of attack that would be. Expert analysis suggests that an attack on Japan would not be a sudden all-out war, but rather a phased and hybrid approach.

1. The first possibility is non-military, gray-zone attacks.
This occurs well before any missile strikes.

• Large-scale cyberattacks (government agencies, power, communications, finance)

• Disruption via social media and information warfare (fake information)

• Pressure on the Senkaku Islands by coast guard vessels and maritime militia fleets

• GPS jamming and satellite interference

• Interference with merchant vessels and occupation of marine resources in the EEZ

While not war, this is pressure that is close to actual aggression. These are methods already habitually used around the world, and they are partially occurring in Japan as well.

2. The next stage is intimidation attacks using missiles (limited).
A sudden all-out attack on the Japanese mainland would lead to a full-scale war with the U.S. military, carrying enormous risks, so the scenario includes limited missile launches for intimidation purposes.
Types anticipated

• Ballistic missiles

• Cruise missiles

• Hypersonic missiles (aimed at attacking bases)

Likely targets

• Self-Defense Force bases (air, maritime)

• Radar bases

• U.S. military bases (Yokosuka, Okinawa, Misawa, etc.)

Targeting urban areas is unlikely in the first stage because it would result in a loss of international legitimacy.

3. In the worst-case scenario, it would escalate to a full-scale missile attack.
This is at the level of a major war where the survival of the nation is at stake.

• Simultaneous multiple ballistic and cruise missile attacks

• Saturation attacks by drone swarms

• Combined use of cyberattacks and electromagnetic pulse attacks

• Mass deployment of manned and unmanned aircraft

Many experts believe that even if a Taiwan contingency occurs, the possibility of Country C launching a full-scale attack on the Japanese mainland is extremely low.

4. Attacks on Japan are most likely to occur first in Okinawa and the Nansei Islands
If a Taiwan crisis occurs, the battlefield will likely center on the Nansei Islands (Yonaguni, Miyako, Ishigaki, Okinawa) rather than the Japanese mainland.

• Sea and air blockade

• Attacks not involving landings on islands (missiles, drones)

• Neutralization of Self-Defense Force bases

The Japanese mainland would only be involved in a very limited capacity, such as if the invasion of Taiwan were to fail significantly.

In summary,
A scenario where missiles suddenly rain down on Tokyo is hard to imagine. The sequence that is actually possible is:
1. Cyber and information warfare
2. Gray-zone pressure from coast guard vessels and maritime militias
3. Military tension in the Nansei Islands
4. Limited missile attacks on bases
5. Full-scale war (this is almost impossible)

[Column]
When people hear that Japan might be drawn into a war and attacked, many may intuitively imagine missile attacks on urban areas. However, based on publicly available defense research and security analysis, that imagination is not necessarily realistic.
Many experts believe that if an attack on Japan were to occur, it would not be a sudden full-scale war, but rather a gradual and hybrid form.

The first thing that could happen is pressure in the domain not called war. Cyberattacks on government agencies, power, communications, and finance; information manipulation via social media; continuous demonstrations by coast guard vessels and maritime militia fleets around the Senkaku Islands; and interference with GPS and satellite communications—all of these are non-military but are acts that substantially erode sovereignty, and they have already become commonplace around the world. These are already happening to Japan in part.

The next stage that can be considered is limited military action. If Japan's urban areas were directly attacked, it would invite a full-scale war with the United States and result in the loss of international legitimacy. Therefore, even if missiles were used, it is highly likely that the targets would be limited to Self-Defense Force bases, radar facilities, and U.S. military bases in Japan. This would be an action aimed at political and psychological intimidation rather than military victory.

Full-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks by drones are also theoretically conceivable. However, because that would lead directly to a major war that risks the survival of the state, many experts assess that possibility as extremely low.

The places where tensions are likely to rise in reality are not the Japanese mainland, but Okinawa and the Nansei Islands. If a crisis surrounding Taiwan occurs, the focus will be on the islands such as Yonaguni, Miyako, and Ishigaki, and it is believed that the focus will be on sea and air blockades and the neutralization of bases.

To summarize, the assumed sequence is as follows: cyber and information warfare, gray-zone pressure, military tension in the Nansei Islands, limited base attacks, and then full-scale war. However, the possibility of reaching the final stage is not high.

This series is not intended to incite anxiety. It is important to understand the structure calmly. War often begins quietly. That is precisely why a calm awareness is required, rather than excessive fear.