US Secretary of Defense's Fleet Reorganization Plan
On October 6, US Secretary of Defense Esper gave a speech at an online event hosted by the US think tank CSBA, where he unveiled the new fleet reorganization plan (Battle Force 2045), revealing a vision to increase the number of US Navy vessels from the current 293 to over 355 by 2035, and further to over 500 manned and unmanned vessels by 2045.
Secretary of Defense Esper cited as background that China aims to complete basic military modernization by 2035 and become a world-class military by 2049, emphasizing the need to increase the number of US vessels before China achieves its military modernization to ensure that US military superiority is not threatened.
As stated in the latest trends in the Third Offset Strategy dated October 4, on September 16, Secretary of Defense Esper announced the US Navy's radical review plan (Future Forward) in a speech at the RAND Corporation, and while he did state that surface vessels would be increased from the current 293 to 355, the new fleet reorganization plan (Battle Force 2045) can be said to be a further concretization of that content.
This time, I would like to organize and introduce the background leading up to this, as well as the main points and issues of "Battle Force 2045."
1. Background to the issuance of "Battle Force 2045"
The US Navy usually prepares a 30-year Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans along with its annual budget request, but this year, Secretary of Defense Esper did not approve it due to doubts regarding the appropriateness of the costs required for shipbuilding and the feasibility of the plan.
(1) Future Naval Force Study (FNFS)
Therefore, Secretary of Defense Esper conducted the Future Naval Force Study (FNFS) as part of the "New Joint War Plan" that the Department of Defense conducted independently for about half a year starting this spring.
In this study, the Department of Defense's Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE), the Joint Staff, the US Navy, and the Hudson Institute each independently conducted a 30-year plan review involving wargames and analytical evaluations, and each reported their results to the Deputy Secretary of Defense.
Part of the content was leaked to the US media this April, and the content was as follows:
○ Reduce aircraft carriers from the current 11 to 9
○ Introduction of 65 small vessels that can be operated unmanned in emergencies and with a small crew in peacetime
Keep large vessels such as Aegis ships at over 80, close to the current 90, and increase small vessels to 55-70, which is more than the current number
(2) US Navy's radical review plan (Future Forward)
After that, the FNFS ended, and the Secretary received the FNFS report from the Deputy Secretary and others early in the week of September 14. Since he was convinced that the content could truly be a game-changer, he decided to officially announce it as "Future Forward" at the RAND Corporation on September 16.
2. Main points of "Battle Force 2045"
And as mentioned at the beginning, on October 6, Secretary of Defense Esper announced Battle Force 2045, which further concretized Future Forward, and its main points were as follows:
○ Increase the number of vessels from the current 293 to over 355 by 2035
○ Possess over 500 manned and unmanned vessels by 2045
○ Increase attack nuclear submarines (SSN) from the current 51 to 70-80
○ Increase the construction pace of Virginia-class SSNs from the current 2 per year to 3 per year
○ Nuclear-powered aircraft carriers (CVN) from the current 11 to 8-11 (Note: Congressional approval is required for plans where the number of deployed aircraft carriers falls below 11)
○ Increase light aircraft carriers based on the America-class amphibious assault ship (LHA) to 6 (Note: Possibility of ending the America-class, which is scheduled to procure 10 ships, at the 4th ship)
○ Increase manned (optionally unmanned) vessels (including submarines) to 140-240
○ Increase small vessels like the next-generation frigate (FFG(X)) from the current 52 littoral combat ships (LCS) to 60-70
○ Increase amphibious ships (LPD/LSD) from the current 38 to 50-60
○ Increase combat logistics ships (AOE) from the current 32 to 70-90
○ Enable the operation of unmanned aerial vehicles from aircraft carriers
3. Issues regarding "Battle Force 2045"
(1) Still in the conceptual stage
This concept, compiled by the US Navy and CAPE and launched by Secretary of Defense Esper, is expected to be budgeted as early as fiscal year 2022. However, according to an article published by the US Naval Institute (USNI) on October 21, it appears to be awaiting approval from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) of the federal government at this time (if OMB approval is not obtained, it may not be reflected in the budget request submitted in February 2021, potentially missing the deadline for fiscal year 2022).
(2) Budgetary feasibility
One reason why OMB approval has not yet been obtained may be the time required to examine the budgetary feasibility of this conceptual plan.
While Secretary of Defense Esper states that "by deploying a balanced mix of manned and unmanned vessels, we can complete it within the budget framework within the necessary timeframe," he also notes that "a budget increase is essential" for realization, adding, "It is my job and the job of the US Navy leadership to find funds within the US Navy and other departments to realize the content under consideration."
Furthermore, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has pointed out that the US Navy underestimates the long-term costs of its shipbuilding plans. In fact, there is the reality that the Ford-class aircraft carriers, Littoral Combat Ships, and Zumwalt-class destroyers have become far more expensive than originally planned.
However, the Budget Control Act (BCA), which set caps on defense spending and was enacted in fiscal year 2013 following the Lehman Shock, will expire in fiscal year 2021, which is one aspect that brightens the budgetary outlook as the constraints will be lifted from fiscal year 2022.
(3) Significant revision of the shipbuilding pace
Since the start of the Trump administration, the increase to 355 ships has already been legislated, and for the time being, there is a plan to increase to 305 ships by 2025. However, at the current pace, it would reach 355 ships around 2050. Therefore, to realize the concept of increasing to 355 or more ships by 2035 as Secretary Esper says, and possessing over 500 manned and unmanned vessels by 2045, it is necessary to significantly revise the plan and increase the pace of shipbuilding.
However, even if it were possible to secure the budget, another problem may arise: whether the shipyard capacity can keep up.
(4) What is the future vision aimed at by this concept?
According to this concept, what will the future force structure of the US Navy look like?
① Introduction and integration of unmanned systems
The Secretary states, "We are moving toward introducing vessels that can be operated quickly by a small number of people and can also operate unmanned when necessary."
Considering the vast theater of the Western Pacific, it is believed that the conclusion was reached that compared to conventional manned systems, unmanned systems are capable of longer-term operations, can operate in environments where there is a high risk of losing personnel in contingencies, have no risk of personnel attrition, and are cheaper in terms of Department of Defense expenses.
Incidentally, last year, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gilday also stated, "I understand that the future fleet will include unmanned vessels. To counter adversaries who are building ships at a furious pace, we must change our way of thinking" (it is unclear whether the future concepts of the Department of Defense and the US Navy are in complete agreement).
② Total number of aircraft carriers to increase
In the US Navy, studies have been underway for some time to shift the weight from operations centered on conventional Carrier Strike Groups (CSG) that boast overwhelming offensive power to distributed operations backed by robust networks, and to connect with unmanned systems. However, it seems that there is no change in the fact that they continue to need aircraft carrier task forces that possess powerful force projection capabilities.
Regarding supercarriers (CVN) such as the Nimitz class, the possibility of reducing them to 8 ships has been indicated, but even so, by increasing 6 light aircraft carriers based on the America-class amphibious assault ships (LHA), the total number of aircraft carriers will increase from the current 11 to 14 (if 11 supercarriers (CVN) are maintained, it will be 17).
③ Surface combatants, especially small ships and unmanned ships, will increase significantly
As for surface combatants, it is thought that the current Ticonderoga-class cruisers (CG), Arleigh Burke-class destroyers (DDG: Flight I/II), and Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) will disappear, and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers (DDG: Flight III), next-generation frigates (FFG(X)), and unmanned surface vessels will become the main components.
Furthermore, on Monday, October 12, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gilday said, "The US Navy will consider the next-generation missile destroyer (DDG(X)) from a blank slate. It will be smaller than the 16,000-ton Zumwalt-class DDG, but it will be a ship that can carry more missiles than now." Procurement is said to begin in 2025, but the specific details are unknown at this time.
On the other hand, another center of distributed operations backed by a robust network is the next-generation frigate (FFG(X)), which will be the successor to the current Littoral Combat Ship (LCS). The US Navy terminated the procurement of Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) and launched a new next-generation frigate (FFG(X)) program in 2017, and in April 2020, it decided to adopt the FREMM (a general-purpose frigate jointly planned by France and Italy) proposed by the Italian defense industry company Fincantieri.
Currently, the U.S. Navy plans to procure the first FFG(X) in fiscal year 2020, two per year between fiscal years 2021 and 2029, and the 20th FFG(X) in fiscal year 2030.
④ Significant expansion of manned/unmanned submarines
To maximize underwater superiority, in addition to increasing nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN), there is a plan to also increase unmanned submarines. This is to avoid crew fatigue associated with long-duration submerged operations during peacetime, to perform missions in dangerous waters under enemy threat in place of manned submarines during contingencies, and to avoid crew attrition from attacks.
It appears that the FNFS has indicated a direction of investing a significant budget into extra-large unmanned underwater vehicles (XLUUV). In particular, the results of the CAPE study seem to recommend the procurement of 50 XLUUVs.
The U.S. Navy signed a contract for the first four XLUUVs with Boeing in February 2019 and has since expanded it to five, but it appears they have a plan to purchase two per year from 2023 onwards.
Summary
○ Battle Force 2045 is still at the stage of being the Secretary of Defense's concept. It will require White House approval and congressional approval for parts of the concept and budget, so it is still very fluid
○ However, the Secretary of Defense, who oversees the entire military rather than just the U.S. Navy, is personally taking the initiative to support the U.S. Navy, which is a tailwind for the U.S. Navy's expansion
○ It is likely that the technical aspects are somewhat in sight, but how to secure such a large budget remains an unknown.
○ However, since the BCA will end soon, budgetary constraints will be resolved.
○ Under the current plan, it is difficult to achieve over 500 ships by 2045, so the shipbuilding plan needs to be revised to increase the construction pace. However, it is unclear whether shipyard capacity can keep up.
○ It is presumed that the U.S. Navy will while maintaining the power projection capability of carrier strike groups, gradually shift its weight toward distributed operations connected with unmanned systems.
○ The main surface combatants may become Arleigh Burke-class destroyers (Flight III), next-generation frigates (FFG(X)), and unmanned surface vessels.
○ In conjunction with this movement, there is a possibility that U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, will be forced to procure U.S.-made unmanned systems and participate in distributed operations.
○ Although the relationship with the Third Offset Strategy is not explicitly stated, it is clear from the reality that it is an aspect of a third offset strategy to "ensure superiority over hostile nations through technological superiority."
○ The success of distributed operations requires securing a robust network in domains such as space, cyber, and electromagnetic waves, and coordination with these is a future challenge.
We will continue to monitor developments on this matter, which is of high interest to security stakeholders, and will post updates if any occur.