FedEx Corporation ( $FDX ) FY26 Q4 Earnings Analysis (2026.6.23) and Future Outlook

Good morning, this is Momo-chan.

This time, I will summarize the earnings analysis for FedEx Corporation's FY26 fourth quarter (March-May period).

This is the first earnings announcement following the completion of the FedEx Freight spin-off (June 1, 2026). Additionally, the fiscal year-end will change from May 31 to December 31 moving forward.

<FedEx Corporation Earnings Summary>

Q4 FY2026 Earnings Release | FedEx Corporation

EPS Forecast: $5.95 Result: $6.31
Revenue Forecast: $24.0B Result: $25.0B (YoY +12.6%)

FY2026 EPS Forecast: $19.86 Result: $20.24
FY2026 Revenue Forecast: $93.66B Result: $94.70B (YoY +7.7%)
New FY2026 EPS Guidance Result: $16.90-$18.10
New FY2026 Revenue Guidance Result: YoY +11.0%
*New FY2026 (CY2026)... Due to the change in fiscal year, disclosures will shift to Calendar Year (CY) moving forward.

GAAP Operating Income: $1.55B / 6.2% of revenue (Previous year same period: $1.79B / 8.1%)
Adjusted Operating Income (Non-GAAP): $2.09B / 8.4% of revenue (Previous year same period: $2.02B / 9.1%)
GAAP Net Income: $1.60B (Previous year same period: $1.65B)
Adjusted Net Income (Non-GAAP): $1.53B (Previous year same period: $1.46B)
Capital Expenditures: $3.8B (FY2026) (4.0% of revenue, the lowest level in the company's history)
Share Buybacks this period: $776M (FY2026)
Remaining Share Buybacks: $1.3B
Cash and Equivalents: $13.3B (Includes $4.1B dividend associated with the FedEx Freight spin-off)

(Source: Created by Momo-chan from FedEx Corporation earnings materials)

FedEx Corporation's revenue growth rate is +12.6% YoY and +4.2% QoQ.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

Following the earnings announcement, the stock price fell approximately 4.7% in after-hours trading.

FedEx Corporation's NTM P/E ratio for the next 12 months is approximately 13.5x.

<Momo-chan's Impressions>

FedEx Corporation's earnings were impeccable in terms of the numbers.

Both EPS and revenue exceeded analyst expectations, and the company achieved its goal of over $B in cost reductions through structural reform.

Having completed the major milestone of the FedEx Freight spin-off, FedEx has entered a new phase focused on package logistics.

Adjusted EPS of $0.24 for FY2026 is up 11.3% year-over-year, showing solid profit growth.

If I were to point out a concern, it is that the stock price fell in after-hours trading despite the strong earnings.

The background to this is that the midpoint of the new FY2026 guidance EPS ($6.90-$18.10), which is $7.50, was slightly below the market consensus ($9.86), as well as uncertainty regarding profitability after the spin-off.

The decline in adjusted operating margin from 9.1% in the same period last year to 8.4% remains a persistent challenge.

However, the NTM P/E ratio of approximately 13.5x is historically undervalued, and there is significant room for margin improvement if cost reductions through Network 2.0 continue.

I look forward to the logistics industry's stable cash-generating ability and the strategic deployment leveraged by the agility gained after the spin-off.

<Investment Rating>

Quality of Earnings: ★★★★☆

Both EPS and revenue exceeded analyst expectations, and the achievement of cost reduction targets of B or higher is also commendable.

The fact that they achieved revenue and profit growth while managing a major transformation like a spin-off demonstrates the capability of the management team.

Sustainability of Growth: ★★★☆☆

Structural reform through Network 2.0 is progressing steadily, and the path to mid-to-long-term margin improvement is visible.

On the other hand, uncertainty remains regarding the global trade environment and the transition period to a new business model following the spin-off.

Valuation: ★★★★☆

An NTM P/E ratio of approximately 13.5x is undervalued among major logistics companies, and considering the stability of earnings, I think it is an attractive price.

Since the stock was sold off because the guidance was slightly below market expectations, it actually feels easier to buy now.

Overall Rating: A steady stock that I would like to accumulate patiently.

It may not be flashy, but the results of structural reform are steadily emerging, and I believe it is the type of stock that can be held with peace of mind.

As the new FedEx after the spin-off, this is a stock I want to engage with carefully while paying attention to the figures from the next fiscal year onwards to see how much the profit margin can improve.