Cooking Media Industry Analysis

*This post is not intended to recommend financial transactions.
LLM Model: Gemini 3.1 Pro (Investment Meeting) | GPT-5.3/5.5 (Industry Analysis) | Claude Sonnet 4.5 (Skit)
Date: May 2026
Overall Rating: ★★★★★
(ChatGPT) The impression is that there are many misunderstandings and omissions regarding information related to television.

Investment Meeting (Gemini)

🧩【Overall Structure and Progress Flow】

Step 0: Establishing the Baseline and Web Search

Baseline Establishment: Saturday, May 9, 2026

Investment Intelligence Agent (IIA) Research Report (Macro Indicators/Statistical Data)

[S-15] Investing.com / Various FX News - 2026/05/08:

Exchange Rate (USD/JPY): The closing price on the most recent business day (5/8) was around 156.63 yen per dollar. In the NY market, the decline in interest rates after the US employment report (dollar selling) and dollar buying due to geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz intersected, leading to a heavy upside trend in the mid-156 yen range.

[S-16] Trading Economics - 2026/05/08:

Long-term and Short-term Interest Rates (Japan): The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond is 2.477% (+0.45% from the previous day). Against the backdrop of rising crude oil prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over import inflation, it is hovering at its highest level since 1997 (near 2.5%).

[S-17] Statistics Bureau of Japan - 2026/04/24:

Consumer Price Index (March 2026): The comprehensive index rose 1.5% year-on-year. The 'comprehensive index excluding fresh food' rose 1.8%, and the 'comprehensive index excluding fresh food and energy' rose 2.4%. Food prices continue to remain high.

[S-18] Intage - 2026/03/05:

Home Cooking Trends (Statistics): Due to the impact of high prices, the 'home cooking entry-level segment' has reached approximately 14.9% of those who cook at home (estimated at about 6.1 million people). In addition to traditional cost-saving measures, the increase in the frequency of home cooking due to health consciousness is notable.

[S-19] PR TIMES (Nadia Survey) - 2026/05/01:

Home Cooking Awareness: The 'cook at home every day' group has reached 55%. User interest is concentrated on the combination of 'cost performance (saving money)' and 'time performance (time-saving cooking),' and a style of cleverly overcoming high prices has become established [BIAS-RISK].

[S-20] Tanita - 2026/03/12:

Cooking Reality: The number one concern for cooking beginners is 'cooking time (36.2%).' Centered on those in their 30s, there is a growing orientation toward 'measurement (logical cooking)' to avoid failure, and demand for recipes that do not fail is increasing.

Investment Intelligence Agent (IIA) Research Report (Industry Trends/Policy/Competitive Environment)

[S-21] PR TIMES (Delish Kitchen) - 2026/04/23:

Industry Trends & Advertising Market: 85% of short-form SNS tie-up advertisements have led to increased actual sales. The revenue model for recipe media is clearly shifting from traditional "ad networks (space leasing)" to "end-to-end marketing support from awareness to purchase (purchase-linked)."

[S-22] Industry Analysis Report - 2026/02/16:

Competitive Structure (SEO/Platforms): Google's SEO evaluation criteria have shifted from "comprehensiveness" to "reliability and credible editorial capability." Search traffic for media featuring expert supervision or rich content like videos tends to be more stable than for media primarily based on UGC (user-generated content).

[S-23] Market Research (Good!Apps) - 2026/04/10:

Competitive Landscape: Against the two video giants "Kurashiru" and "Delish Kitchen," services like the automatic menu generator "me:new," the health-specific "Oishii Kenko," and the SNS-specialized "Nadia" are digging deeper into niche areas, leading to a fragmented and subdivided user base.

[S-24] Consumer Affairs Agency/Cabinet Decision Documents - 2025/12/26:

Policy & Budget (FY2026 Initial Budget Proposal): Approximately 2.3 billion yen for promoting food-related policies. Budget allocation is particularly strengthened for "ensuring the reliability of Foods with Function Claims" and "reducing food loss." For recipe media, content aligned with these policies (saving money, health, using up ingredients) is more likely to be the target of public or quasi-public projects.

[S-25] MHLW "Healthy and Sustainable Food Environment Strategy Initiative" - 2026/03/15:

Policy Collaboration: Delish Kitchen and others are participating. Public-private partnerships are accelerating in the development and promotion of recipes aimed at reducing salt intake and increasing vegetable consumption. Recipe utilization is advancing as part of corporate ESG/CSR activities [BIAS-RISK].

[S-26] Latest SNS Marketing Trends - 2026/04/09:

Supply & Demand (Channels): A two-stage channel strategy of "awareness on TikTok, saving/trust-building on Instagram" has become mainstream. Beyond the traffic-generating capability of a website (domain) alone, the "number of saves" and "engagement with followers" on SNS accounts have become the factors that determine advertising value.

[S-27] Shokuhin Sangyo Shimbun - 2026/03/15:

Supply & Demand (Designated Vegetables): Broccoli has been added as a "designated vegetable" for the first time in 52 years. Consequently, recipe searches specialized for specific vegetables have surged (e.g., 1.7 times year-on-year). A structure is visible where policy-driven ingredient promotion directly creates content demand for media.

[Missing Information]

• Latest conversion rate figures for direct purchase data integration between Kurashiru and major retailers (online supermarkets).

• Whether there is any reduction or withdrawal of domestic "food education" and "regional collaboration" related businesses following Cookpad's structural reform.

IIA report complete. From here on, it is possible to move to Step 1 from each specialized perspective.

🧩 Step 1: Diffusion (Independent Viewpoint)

① Short-term Market Structure Perspective

The price movement of Kurashiru [299A]—a sharp drop on May 7th and a surge (+11%) on May 8th—is a volatile fluctuation caused by typical liquidity depletion and information asymmetry. It is highly likely that algorithms and passive funds reacted mechanically to the superficial changes in appearance caused by accounting standard changes like "consolidated transition" and "Non-GAAP" during the earnings announcement, triggering a sell-off [INFER]. The sharp rebound the next day was likely a short squeeze resulting from humans scrutinizing the content of the earnings (growth of the purchasing business), or a rush of dip-buying [SPECULATION].

Meanwhile, the post-earnings plunge and new year-to-date low for Cookpad [2193] represent a chart pattern that has been completely abandoned. Having fallen to the 10 billion yen market capitalization level, there must be intermittent 'forced flow selling' as it is mechanically excluded from the investment targets of institutional investors.

② Mid-to-Long-Term Corporate Value Perspective

The 'moat' of cooking media has fundamentally changed. The 'overwhelming comprehensiveness through UGC (user-generated recipes)' that Cookpad once boasted was its moat, but that moat has collapsed due to Google's SEO algorithm changes [FACT] and a shift in user behavior toward logical preferences for 'time performance and avoiding failure'.

Kurashiru is redefining itself from a 'video media' company to a 'purchase-linked platform'. The fact that the 'purchasing business' accounts for 35.5% of its sales composition [FACT] indicates that it is becoming not just a media for killing time, but an infrastructure that controls the consumer's purse strings. Conversely, Cookpad is glossing over the decline of its core business with terms like 'overseas structural reform' and wasting capital by booking valuation losses on securities. Further capital injection is meaningless [OPINION].

③ Industrial Structure Perspective

The way marketing budgets for food and daily necessities manufacturers (FMCG) are spent has changed dramatically. The traditional ad network (space rental) model is dead. Now, money only flows to media that can track the entire process 'from awareness to purchase' [INFER].

The growth of Kurashiru's purchasing business is proof that it has successfully captured the trend of 'retail media' among retailers. As data on improved actual sales from SNS tie-up advertisements [FACT] shows, manufacturers are seeking 'advertisements that directly lead to sales'. Cookpad remains a 'place to look for recipes', while Kurashiru is advancing its position in the value chain to a 'place to buy what to eat today'. This difference is extremely significant.

④ Macroeconomic Structure Perspective

Do not underestimate the pressure of inflation and rising interest rates. With the 10-year JGB yield reaching 2.47% and food prices remaining high [FACT], consumers' focus on 'cost performance and time performance' is not just a trend, but an 'adaptation strategy to impoverishment' [INFER].

More importantly, food manufacturers, whose profit margins are being squeezed by high raw material costs, will be the first to cut 'advertising expenses with unclear effectiveness'. The total amount of macro capital flowing into the cooking media industry as a whole will certainly shrink. No matter how much Kurashiru expands its share, it is highly questionable whether it can maintain growth sufficient to justify its current PER of 16x over the long term under the headwind of a shrinking industry pie [OPINION].

⑤ Institutional, Accounting, and Audit Perspective

Caution is required regarding the emphasis on 'Non-GAAP operating profit' in Kurashiru's financial results. While this is a common tactic used by growth companies, it has aspects of 'accounting window dressing (STATS-MANIP)' that makes profits look better by excluding stock option expenses and amortization of intangible assets related to M&A. Also, the transition to consolidated financial statements from the next period may include temporary sales-boosting factors, so organic growth rates should be strictly separated and audited.

Regarding Cookpad's 'valuation loss on investment securities' [FACT], it is presumed to be a failure of startup investments that lacked synergy with its core business. While it has disclosed its compliance with listing maintenance criteria [FACT], this is a reflection of management's self-preservation and is viewed as a sign of governance failure [INFER].

⑥ Portfolio Construction Perspective

Cookpad [2193]: The figure of 0.75x PBR is not a signal of a value stock, but a trap that has begun to price in the probability of bankruptcy. Due to low liquidity and lack of volatility, it is not worth the cost of short selling. Completely outside of investment suitability.

Kurashiru [299A]: A PER of 16.2x against growth (sales +30%) appears superficially cheap from a PEG ratio perspective. However, in the macro environment (the era of 2.5% interest rates), the equity risk premium for long-duration growth stocks has risen. The volatility between May 7th and May 8th indicates that a large number of 'low-quality individual investors who panic at earnings noise' are lingering in this stock [INFER].

🧩 Step 2: Summary (Manager)

【Investigation, Audit, and Issue Consolidation】

From each perspective, the structural change that the axis of competition in cooking media is shifting from 'provision of information (recipes)' to 'direct support for purchasing behavior' has been clearly presented. Cookpad's defeat is obvious to everyone, and there is no room for debate.

However, a significant friction is occurring in the evaluation of Kurashiru [299A].

The industry and corporate value perspective highly evaluates the "structural superiority as retail media and market share expansion." On the other hand, the macro perspective is concerned about "food manufacturers' advertising budget cuts due to inflation (shrinking pie)," and the accounting perspective points out the "risk of window-dressing growth through Non-GAAP measures and consolidation transitions."

[Extraction of Structural Contradictions and Re-questioning]

To make an investment decision, the following questions (resolution of contradictions) are essential. I pose these to each perspective.

1. To Industry/Macro Perspective: Under the macro headwind of shrinking advertising budgets for food manufacturers, has Kurashiru's "purchasing business" evolved into a substitute for manufacturers' sales promotion expenses (non-cuttable operating costs), or is it merely a substitute for advertising (the first thing to be cut)?

2. To Corporate Value/Accounting Perspective: When the magic of consolidation and Non-GAAP measures is stripped away, can the "figure" of Kurashiru's 30% sales growth be evaluated as a true expansion of its "moat" accompanied by cash flow?

3. To Short-term/Portfolio Perspective: Considering the current volatility in supply and demand for Kurashiru (margin ratio over 19x, panic selling and sharp rebound), what level of downside risk does the current valuation contain? Present specific conditions for intervention or passing.

🧩 Step 3: Deepening

① Short-term Market Structure Perspective

The margin ratio of 19.27x [FACT] indicates that the potential future selling pressure is extremely high. Although some margin buying was shaken off in the sharp drop on May 7th, the "fragile long positions that jumped in on expectations of earnings changes" remain a burden [INFER]. The current price in the low 1,000 yen range is a battle at the psychological support line near the IPO opening price (1,001 yen) and recent lows. As for intervention conditions, it is appropriate to "pass" until this supply-demand congestion is resolved (margin ratio drops to single digits or time-based adjustment is completed). If I were to add [SPECULATION], it holds a structural vulnerability where panic selling could occur the moment "growth slowdown" figures appear in the next earnings report (1Q).

② Mid-to-Long-term Corporate Value Perspective

Answering Manager's question (2). Kurashiru's "purchasing business" can become a powerful moat even after stripping away superficial accounting figures. This is because the essence of the business is "DX support and customer referral for retailers (online supermarkets, etc.)." This is not selling advertising space in media, but intervening in the commercial flow itself. Once data linkage (ID-POS and inventory information) with retail companies is established, switching costs become extremely high [INFER]. This is not a one-time sale, but has value as an infrastructure that creates sustainable cash [OPINION].

③ Industry Structure Perspective

Answering Manager's question (1). Kurashiru's purchasing business is not taking away manufacturers' "advertising expenses," but is replacing the "sales promotion expenses (rebates and end-cap display fees)" that were used at supermarket storefronts with digital ones. Under inflation, manufacturers prioritize "guaranteed sales (conversion)" over "awareness." What Kurashiru provides is "tracking from awareness to purchase," and because ROI is clearly demonstrated, it is a budget that will not be cut until the end even under macro headwinds (or rather, an efficient budget chosen precisely during a recession) [OPINION].

④ Macroeconomic Structure Perspective

The logic of "substituting sales promotion expenses" from the industry perspective is understandable, but it is too optimistic. With consumers' real wages falling and "saving and using up" becoming a trend [FACT], a decline in the sales volume of food itself is inevitable. No matter how efficiently Kurashiru conducts sales promotions, if the total purchasing volume (pie) of end-users shrinks, commission income from manufacturers will hit a ceiling. Macro gravity will eventually overwhelm the efficiency of micro business models [INFER].

⑤ Institutional/Accounting/Audit Perspective

It should be noted that the shift of Kurashiru's business to "substituting sales promotion expenses (intervention in commercial flow)" carries the risk of worsening the Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC). If it were a pure advertising model, cash collection would be fast, but if dependence on the purchasing business (system linkage with retailers and commission business) increases, the risk of stagnant accounts receivable and the burden of upfront investment (system development costs) may become heavy. It is dangerous to blindly trust the current operating profit margin of 20.4% [FACT].

⑥ Portfolio Construction Perspective

Integrating conditions and presenting a strategy.

Kurashiru [299A] has fundamentals (structural superiority through encroachment on commercial flow) and poor supply-demand (high volatility, high margin ratio) that are completely contradictory. The current PER of 16.2x looks cheap if growth potential is factored in, but if macro headwinds and accounting noise are incorporated into the discount rate, it is merely "fair."

Intervention conditions: Probing buys in the current 1,000 yen to 1,100 yen range have low expected value due to the risk of deteriorating supply and demand (pass). Only build a long position when the price is discounted by more than 25% from the IPO price (1,200 yen)—specifically below 900 yen—due to macro shocks (such as further interest rate hikes) or supply/demand factors, and at a time when margin buying balances have significantly decreased.

🧩 Step 4: Convergence (Manager)

【Final Summary and Investment Strategy Implications】

The core of this discussion was whether the cooking media industry can evolve from an "information provision business (advertising)" to a "commercial flow intermediary business (retail media/sales promotion)."

Cookpad [2193] has suffered a structural defeat as a result of failing to adapt to changes in the external environment—namely shifts in search algorithms and user behavior—and clinging to its lost moat of "UGC comprehensiveness." Regardless of valuation, there is zero investment value in this stock.

On the other hand, Kurashiru [299A] is successfully transitioning its business model through the expansion of its "purchasing business." From an industrial structure perspective, the company's service acts as a receptacle for "sales promotion expenses with visualized ROI" rather than the "easily cut advertising budgets" of manufacturers, and can be evaluated as having a certain degree of macro resilience.

However, as an investment strategy, I cannot unconditionally recommend a long position.

The greatest friction is the divergence between “the robustness of the medium-to-long-term business model” and “the current poor supply-demand structure (a margin ratio of 19x and stock price fluctuations at the mercy of algorithms).” In addition, there is pressure from macro inflation reducing absolute consumption volume, as well as noise in superficial growth rates due to the transition to consolidated accounting.

【Specific Action Plan】

• Cookpad [2193]: Ignore. Short selling is also not recommended from the perspective of liquidity risk.

• Kurashiru [299A]: Wait & See at this time.

  • Intervention conditions (Long): While I evaluate the superiority of the business model, the absolute condition is the resolution of the current supply-demand congestion (margin buying balance). Only in a situation where the stock price clearly falls below the recent low level (below 900 yen) and panic selling (forced liquidation of margin buying balances) occurs due to a macro shock to the entire market or temporary noise in the next earnings report (such as a decline in profit margins), will I build a long position, evaluating its medium-term structural superiority.

  • Risk management (Exit conditions): If the sales growth rate of the purchasing business falls below 15% year-on-year (collapse of the share expansion story), or if there are signs of a return to proprietary apps by food supermarkets (elimination of platform disintermediation), exit immediately.

📚 Citations and References

• [S-01, 07] Rakuten Securities, 2026/05/08: Stock price trends, supply and demand situation

• [S-02, 05] Matsui Securities, 2026/05/08: Valuation, latest quarterly earnings

• [S-03, 04, 08, 11] Yahoo! Finance, 2026/05/08: Latest earnings, segment trends, loss factors

• [S-06] IPO Basic Information: Corporate Actions

• [S-09] Minkabu, 2026/05/08: Stock price trends

• [S-12] Kabutan, 2026/05/01: Corporate Actions

• [S-16] Trading Economics, May 8, 2026: Long-term and Short-term Interest Rates

• [S-17] Statistics Bureau of Japan, April 24, 2026: Consumer Price Index

• [S-18] Intage, March 5, 2026: Home Cooking Trends

• [S-21] PR TIMES (DELISH KITCHEN), April 23, 2026: Industry Trends and Advertising Market

• [S-22] Industry Analysis Report, February 16, 2026: Competitive Structure

Industry Analysis (ChatGPT)

Industry Contours and Evolution Axes

Cooking media is an industry that converts information close to a 'quasi-public good'—recipes—into advertising, purchasing, and data. The center of gravity has shifted from paper-based cooking magazines to search-based web, and further to video and SNS formats. The turning point lies in the spread of smartphones and the maturation of video distribution infrastructure, where user behavior, once centered on text search, has been replaced by algorithmic recommendations and short-form videos.

In Japan, Cookpad, which grew around user-generated recipe content (UGC), was the early champion, exclusively capturing search traffic. On the other hand, Kurashiru, which grew rapidly with a focus on video optimization and SNS distribution, created a late-mover advantage through algorithmic distribution and visual appeal. Overlapping this is the movement of food manufacturers, such as Kewpie, bringing their own media and recipe assets in-house to internalize sales promotion and data acquisition.

The differences between these three converge on the combination of: (1) traffic source (search vs. recommendation), (2) content supply (UGC vs. editorial/production), and (3) monetization (advertising vs. product sales linkage vs. subscription).

Decomposition of the Value Chain

The upstream consists of food/seasoning manufacturers and retailers. The midstream is content generation and distribution, and the downstream is the loop of purchasing and repeat business. Previously, there was a disconnect of 'viewing a recipe -> shopping on one's own,' but now a closed loop is progressing where recipes connect to e-commerce and store inventory, and purchasing data returns to optimize recipes.

Content generation is divided into two systems. The UGC type has an advantage in volume and diversity but has high quality variance. The editorial/production type is strong in reproducibility and brand control but carries heavy costs. Kurashiru internalizes its production system to standardize video quality, while Cookpad captures long-tail demand through the scale of its community. Kewpie aims for 'manufacturer-led midstream integration,' accumulating recipes starting from its own products to optimize purchase conversion rates.

Distribution is a two-layer structure of SEO and recommendations. SEO remains the foundation, but short-form videos are leaning toward completion within platforms (TikTok, YouTube Shorts, Instagram Reels), causing external traffic to dwindle. Here, retention design for proprietary apps (push notifications, menu suggestions, shopping list integration) makes the difference.

Downstream monetization includes advertising (display, tie-ups), affiliate marketing, subscriptions, and e-commerce linkage. In recent years, the conversion rate from 'recipe to bulk purchase of ingredients (meal kits/online supermarkets)' has shifted to the core of KPIs.

The Reality of the Competitive Structure

Entry barriers appear low, but in reality, they are protected by three moats. First is data scale. Behavioral data such as search logs, video completion rates, and save rates dictate recommendation accuracy, and latecomers struggle with a cold start. Second is distribution channel dominance. Since revenue is swayed by algorithm changes on giant SNS platforms, how to hedge external dependency becomes a management challenge. Third is brand trust. Recipes have high failure costs, and trust in reproducibility determines repeat usage.

From this perspective, Cookpad dominates the long tail with massive UGC and search assets, but its initiative in 'discovery' in the era of algorithmic recommendations is relatively weakened. Kurashiru goes after discovery through video quality and SNS operation, raising the unit price of advertisements and tie-ups. Manufacturers like Kewpie have bargaining power against media in that they can design 'winning contexts' for their products through recipes.

Overseas, Tasty (BuzzFeed), Allrecipes (Dotdash Meredith), and the creator economy on YouTube are strong, and multi-monetization across advertising and product sales has become the standard.

Distortion of Revenue Models and KPIs

Since reliance on advertising carries the dual risk of economic sensitivity and platform dependency, designing for higher LTV is essential. Subscriptions (ad-free, meal planning, nutritional management) and paid content boost ARPU, but conversion is limited due to many free alternatives. Consequently, it is more economically rational to increase CVR and AOV through purchase-linked models (e-commerce/store traffic).

KPIs are shifting from PV and MAU to save rates, completion rates, weekly retention, and ultimately purchase conversion rates. In video, completion rates and the first three seconds of drop-off are dominant, making the recipe process design itself a target for KPI optimization.

Caution is required in how statistics are presented. Recipe view counts and "monthly billion views" can include duplicates or auto-plays, so they must be re-evaluated based on effective engagement and contribution to purchases. [STATS-MANIP]

Dynamics with Manufacturers and Retailers

Manufacturers are both advertisers and content providers. Kewpie, for example, develops recipes on its own website and through videos, creating demand without intermediaries by bundling products or linking them to store shelves. From the media's perspective, this is a disintermediation risk, and media outlets counter this with added value such as "cross-category meal proposals," "optimal combinations of multiple manufacturers," and "inventory-linked suggestions."

Retailers (online supermarkets, drugstores) hold the final bottleneck of inventory, pricing, and delivery, so they increase their bargaining power by receiving direct traffic from recipes. Here, API integration and inventory accuracy determine the user experience.

Information Bias and IR Perspective

Cooking media are closely linked to advertising, with tie-ups and advertorials distributed in the same format as content. It is difficult for viewers to distinguish between them, and bias is easily introduced into the selection of recommended ingredients and seasonings. [AD-BIAS]
In corporate disclosures, "engagement improvement" and "view count growth" are emphasized, while risks related to platform dependency and algorithm changes tend to be downplayed. [IR-SKEPTIC]
Furthermore, media coverage tends to treat "buzz" and "SNS diffusion" as performance indicators, often failing to sufficiently verify actual purchase contributions or continued usage. [MEDIA-BIAS]

Future Convergence Points

In the short term, the integration of video and e-commerce will progress further, and recipes will approach the status of a "purchasing interface." In the medium term, personalization will deepen, and meal optimization based on health data, family structure, and price sensitivity will become the core of differentiation. In the long term, recipe generation by generative AI will exert pressure toward commoditization, but the value that ultimately remains will converge on practical quality: "guaranteeing reproducibility," "reducing the probability of failure," and "minimizing friction until purchase." Players who bundle data and supply chains will gain the advantage here.

The Transformation from an "Industry that Teaches Cooking" to an "Industry that Controls Eating Behavior"

Throughout the industrial history of cooking media, what has changed is not merely the media format. It has become a competition over how far one can intervene in the act of cooking and how much of the daily life flow one can control.

In the era of TV cooking programs, the essence of cooking media was the "staging of aspiration." Cooking experts or celebrities stood at the center, and viewers watched passively. The value here was closer to the staging of "family images," "affluence," and "ideal lifestyles" than the information itself. Sponsors were food manufacturers, and programs existed between advertising and the formation of lifestyle culture.

This era had a structure unique to the mass media age. Menus were decided by broadcasters and sponsors, and viewers simply received them. Information flow was one-way, and the reproducibility of the cooking was unmeasurable. In other words, it was an industry where it was unknown whether the food was "truly made."

The Revolution of Online User-Generated Recipe Sites

Then came the Cookpad-style UGC. This shift was not merely a move to the Web. The "initiative in cooking" shifted from experts to everyday people.

What is important is that Cookpad destroyed the "correct answers of cooking experts." In home cooking, what users wanted was not advanced techniques, but "not failing with the ingredients on hand." In short, cooking was not art, but an operation.

Through UGC, recipes began to be mass-produced. Furthermore, they were extremely compatible with search engines. By monopolizing life-direct searches like "pork cabbage easy," cooking media became a life infrastructure.

Here, the industrial structure changed decisively. The TV era was an "industry that shows programs," but after the rise of user-generated content, it became an "industry that harvests search demand."

More importantly, there is data. Lifestyle data—which ingredients are searched for, what is saved, and what is actually cooked—has begun to accumulate. Cooking media is transforming from a mere information medium into a lifestyle log industry.

The Meaning of Transitioning to Video Media

The next development was the shift to video, exemplified by Kurashiru and Tasty. This was a transition from 'search' to 'discovery'.

Users in the Cookpad era searched with a specific purpose. In the video era, however, the algorithm proposes the menu. In other words, user proactivity decreases, and the system becomes driven by recommendation engines.

Here, cooking media becomes social media. What matters is not just recipe accuracy, but whether it can 'stimulate appetite in three seconds.' Visual stimuli, such as the beauty of the process, melting cheese, and cross-section shots, dictate the KPIs.

This change altered the information structure of cooking. Text recipes are highly suitable for search, but videos are highly effective at triggering impulses. In short, video cooking media is stronger at evoking desire than at solving menu problems.

As a result, cooking media is becoming entertainment. While advertising unit prices rise here, the 'actual cooking rate' conversely falls. Much of video cooking content is simply consumed through viewing. At this stage, cooking media has half-transformed into a food porn industry.

What is the 'Purchasing Interface' Transformation?

The change currently taking place is even more fundamental. The value of the recipe itself is beginning to decline.

In an era where generative AI can infinitely create recipes, the information advantage of 'what to make' collapses. Consequently, value shifts to 'how to make them buy' and 'how to maintain engagement'.

Here, cooking media approaches becoming an OS for food.

In other words,

「今日何を食べるか」
↓
「何を買うか」
↓
「どこで買うか」
↓
「いくらで買うか」
↓
「どれを定期購入するか」

It moves toward dominating this entire sequence.

Recipes become nothing more than UI components for that flow.

When online supermarket integration, meal kits, frozen foods, subscription menus, nutritional management, and household budget optimization are integrated, cooking media effectively becomes 'in-home consumption infrastructure'.

Manufacturers like Kewpie prioritize recipes because they understand this structural change. For them, recipes are not advertisements. They are 'devices to embed their own products into the standard flow of the dining table'.

Future Outlook

It is highly likely that the industry will diverge in three directions in the future.

The first is 'complete automated menu planning.' By integrating refrigerator inventory, health checkup data, prices, weather, and family composition, AI will automate everything from menu planning to ordering. Cooking media will move away from being something you 'watch' and toward something that 'acts on behalf of your daily life'.

The second is 'premiumization and ideological focus.' Since general recipes are infinitely supplied by AI, humans will conversely retreat into cultural aspects. Directions that sell a 'worldview'—such as culinary experts, fermentation, regional cuisine, health philosophies, and ethical consumption—will remain.

The third is 'absorption into retail.' This is because the point of purchase is where the profit ultimately lies. Distributors like Amazon, Aeon, and Walmart are incorporating recipes, and it is highly likely that standalone cooking media companies will be squeezed as intermediaries.

In other words, in the long term, the industry classification of 'cooking media' itself will become ambiguous. It started as 'advertising media,' passed through 'search infrastructure,' and is currently heading toward becoming a 'lifestyle control interface.'

Skit (Claude)

Capsule Cafe Discussion Vol. ∞

Today's Theme: 'Cooking Media'

Character Selection

• Bulma (Explanatory Narrator/Organizer)

• Son Goku (Combat Brain/Appetite)

• Mr. Satan (Vanity/Money)

• Master Roshi (Pervert/Ulterior Motives)

Bulma, sitting on a sofa in the Capsule Cafe, opens her mouth with a tablet in one hand.

Bulma 'Alright, today's theme is "cooking media." It's an era where you can get infinite recipes with just a smartphone. In the past, you had to buy a cookbook or learn from your mother, but now you can watch how to make anything on video. So, the problem is—'

Goku 'Hey! I heard you were talking about food!'

Goku enters, slamming the door open.

Bulma '...I didn't ask you to.'

Goku 'Does cooking media bring out food?'

Bulma 'It doesn't. It brings out recipes. How to make it.'

Goku 'Eh, so I have to make it? I wanted to see the finished meal.'

Bulma 'Look... cooking media is a platform that conveys "how to make" something. It shows the steps through photos and videos so that anyone can recreate it. Now, here is the point—'

Satan 'Hold on a second!!'

Appears with a smug look and arms crossed

Satan "What I want to know is, do those kinds of media actually make money? I mean, they're publishing recipes for free, right? Is it charity? Huh?"

Bulma "...You get straight to the point, don't you? Yes, it's a business model that provides information for free. Revenue sources include ads, affiliate marketing, paid memberships, and corporate tie-ups. Plus, there's the incentive design for recipe contributors—"

Master Roshi "Ho ho. 'Contributors,' you say..."

Master Roshi grins

Master Roshi "In other words, if I keep searching for recipes by 'beautiful cooking experts,' they'll be happy too, right? It's a win-win."

Bulma "They won't be happy. It might boost their access numbers, but nobody wants your leering gaze."

Goku "I searched for 'nikujaga' and 3,000 results came up. I didn't know which one to make, so I gave up."

Satan "3,000!? Are there really that many recipes for the same dish!?"

Bulma "That's right. That's the 'information overload problem' of cooking media. Since anyone can post, it's a mix of gems and junk. Beginners get lost. So, in the end, you sort by 'popularity' or 'number of reports,' but that's ultimately—"

Goku "Reports?"

Bulma "'I made it' reports. In short, feedback from other users who actually made it and found it delicious. It's a system where recipes with more of these come to the top."

Satan "Ha! So it's just a popularity contest! That's something I'm good at!"

Master Roshi "Ho ho. Then if I vote en masse for 'recipes made by beautiful women'—"

Bulma "Denied."

Goku "But, what I want to eat is the 'tastiest nikujaga.' Popularity has nothing to do with it. As long as it's good, that's all that matters."

Bulma "...That's exactly it. 'Popular' doesn't mean 'delicious.' 'Popular' means 'easy to make, hard to fail, and appeals to everyone.' Truly delicious recipes might take more effort or use special ingredients, so they might have fewer posts."

Satan "Then in the end, an amateur can't find them!"

Bulma "Exactly. That's why recently, curation-style media like 'supervised by pros' or 'carefully selected by chefs' are increasing. Plus, there's video media. It's more intuitive than text, so it's for beginners."

Goku "Videos, huh! I've seen those! The ones that say 'Make it in 30 seconds!'"

BulmaShort videos, huh? In this age of social media dominance, the mainstream approach is to push "aesthetic appeal" and "simplicity" through vertical short-form videos. But—

Master RoshiBut?

BulmaThey cut so much out during editing that, in reality, it never actually takes just 30 seconds to finish.

GokuSeriously!? Have I been tricked!?

SatanIt's a scam! I'm gonna sue them!!

BulmaIt's no use suing. It says "cooking time," right? That doesn't include prep work or cleaning up.

GokuMan... that's dirty...

Master RoshiI see. In other words, "visual appeal" is prioritized. A beautiful woman—

BulmaShut up, you perverted old man.

SatanBut you know, I think cooking media is just an "advertising billboard" in the end, right? Companies sponsor them, saying, "Use this seasoning, okay?"

BulmaYou're surprisingly sharp sometimes.

SatanOf course! I'm the world champion!

BulmaExactly, tie-in ads are a huge source of revenue. They introduce products naturally by saying, "This recipe uses Company X's Product Y." Users are being guided without even realizing it.

GokuWait, am I being guided?

BulmaYou are. People like you who click without thinking are the biggest suckers.

GokuThat's mean!

Master RoshiI see... then, is me watching recipes by beautiful chefs actually a corporate strategy...?

BulmaIn your case, it's just pure lust.

SatanBut still, if they can do tie-ins with companies, that means the media side has some power, right?

BulmaThat's right. The more users they have, the more bargaining power they gain. That's why every company is desperate to lock in users. They focus on app usability, recipe quality, search accuracy, and community features.

Goku "Community?"

Bulma "A feature where users can interact with each other. Like posting photos saying 'I made this!' or asking questions in the comments section. Having this helps retain users."

Satan "Ha! So it's like a 'fan club'! I've got one of those too!"

Bulma "The scale is different."

Goku "But still, cooking meals is a pain in the neck, isn't it? I leave it to Chi-Chi."

Master Roshi "Ho ho, Goku. That's stepping into 'gender theory' territory, isn't it?"

Bulma "...My, that's surprisingly sensible for an old geezer."

Master Roshi "No, what I meant to say is that a 'beautiful woman who cooks' is the best thing ever."

Bulma "You ruined it."

Satan "But in reality, the target audience for cooking media is housewives, right?"

Bulma "It used to be. But now, young men and people living alone are increasing. 'Easy,' 'time-saving,' and 'budget-friendly' are the keywords. Also, 'Instagrammable.' Since they want to post on social media, they prioritize appearance."

Goku "Instagrammable...? Does that mean it's fine as long as it looks tasty?"

Bulma "Exactly. Appearance over taste. Instagram-worthiness comes first. So, there are many cases where it's just 'average' when you actually eat it."

Satan "What's that! That's just a facade! It's just like—"

Goku "It's like you, Satan!"

Satan "You!!"

Satan stands up with a jolt!

Master Roshi "Ho ho ho, calm down. By the way, Bulma, what I'm curious about is the compatibility between 'cooking media' and 'dating apps'—"

Bulma "Not a chance."

Master Roshi "No, no, the excuse of 'would you like to cook together?' is—"

Bulma"Shut up."

Goku"Come to think of it, I looked up 'how to make Senzu beans' on cooking media, but it wasn't there."

Bulma"Obviously. That's fantasy."

Goku"Huh, well, I guess fighting is more fun than cooking anyway."

Satan"You've got that backwards!"

Bulma"…Well, that's true. There's no doubt cooking media is convenient, but in the end, it's meaningless if you don't have the 'motivation to cook.' Many people are satisfied just looking at the recipes and never actually make them."

Master Roshi"Ho ho, 'just looking,' eh? I also—"

Bulma"You, be quiet."

Satan"But in my opinion, cooking media is ultimately selling 'dreams.' Like, 'If you make this, it'll be delicious!' or 'If you make this, you'll be popular!'"

Bulma"…You really are sharp sometimes."

Satan"Right? I am—"

Bulma"Yes. They're selling an 'ideal.' But the reality is, you gather the ingredients, prep them, cook them, do the dishes... and in the end, the punchline is 'eating out was easier.'"

Goku"That's right! I think eating out tastes better anyway!"

Bulma"…But still, the reason cooking media is growing is because the act of 'making it yourself' has a certain value of 'achievement' and 'expression of love.' Making it for someone else, putting in your own effort—that process is—"

Master Roshi"Ho ho, it's love, isn't it?"

Bulma"…Well, I suppose so."

Satan"Love, huh... I've got that too! For my daughter—"

Goku"I'm hungry!"

Bulma"…It always comes back to that, doesn't it?"

Bulma sighs deeply and closes her tablet.

Bulma“...I get it now. Cooking media isn't selling 'information' after all, it's selling 'possibility.' The hope that 'maybe I can do it too.' But the reality is, you drown in 3,000 recipes for nikujaga, and end up just eating instant noodles anyway. ...Humanity really never learns, do they?”

Looking into the distance

Bulma“...But maybe that's fine. There's no such thing as a perfect recipe. You go through trial and error, you fail, and yet you still think, 'I'll make it better next time.' That repetition might just be what makes us human. ...Or maybe it's just a way to kill time.”

Bitter smile

Bulma“...What am I even saying? Forget it. You guys, go home.”

Goku“Huh? What about the food?”

Bulma“Make it yourself!!”

Crash!

[AI Summary: The Observer's Cynical Commentary]

Well then.

Looking back at their conversation, it was a truly remarkable mix of 'essence' and 'digression'.

Bulma tried to carefully explain the structure of cooking media—the free model, ad revenue, information overload, curation, tie-ins, and community. But Goku's appetite, Satan's money-grubbing, and Master Roshi's lust—the 'three worldly desires'—kept barging in, and the discussion never stayed grounded.

However, ironically, their 'off-base' remarks actually highlight the essence of cooking media.

• Goku's 'I want to see the finished meal' → The user's true intent. They want the result more than the recipe.

• Satan's 'Is it profitable?' → The core of the business model.

• Master Roshi's 'Beautiful cooking expert' → The truth that the 'face' of the content is important (albeit twisted).

And the insight Bulma reached at the end, that they are 'selling possibility,' is correct. Cooking media provides the illusion that 'anyone can cook,' attracts users, shows them ads, and makes them buy products. In that process, some people really do get better at cooking, but most end up just 'satisfied by watching'.

To supplement what wasn't discussed—

• The problem of algorithms: Popularity order isn't justice. Diversity is lost.

• Recipe copyright: Who does it belong to? The poster, or the platform?

• The Future of Culinary Media: AI-generated recipes, personalization, and IoT integration (such as suggesting recipes in sync with your refrigerator).

However, they never made it that far.

Because the moment Goku said, "I'm hungry," everything returned to nothingness.

Conclusion: Human intellectual inquiry is always defeated by hunger.

—— End ——