[7/13 Market Analysis] Bullish trend continues despite 181.44 advance-decline ratio? A thorough explanation of this week's capital flow and AI/semiconductor strategy

[7/13 Morning Market Analysis]
The advance-decline ratio remains at a high level. This week is a turning point between 'continued AI/semiconductor strength' and 'profit-taking'.

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■ Conclusion

I judge the current market as:

'A bullish market that is continuing, but remains in a phase of short-term overheating.'

I will basically maintain a bullish stance this week as well.

However,

I believe this is a market for 'waiting for dips to buy',

not a market for 'chasing and buying'.

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■ ① Advance-Decline Ratio

[6-day Advance-Decline Ratio]

181.44

This remains at a very high level.

Generally,

120% or higher: Overheated

150% or higher: Significantly overheated

180% or higher: A level where short-term profit-taking is likely to occur

is considered the standard.

We are clearly in a short-term overheating zone right now.

However,

in a strong bull market, there are many cases where it continues to rise even after exceeding 180.

Therefore,

it is dangerous to judge a market top based solely on the advance-decline ratio.

What is important is

where the capital is flowing.

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[25-day Advance-Decline Ratio]

116.37

This is not yet extremely overheated.

It is at a healthy level in the medium term.

In other words,

I believe this is a phase where sector rotation is more likely to occur rather than the entire market collapsing.

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■ ② Arbitrage Balance

The arbitrage buying balance is

approximately 2.45 trillion yen,

which remains at a high level.

This is also evidence that the index-led rise is continuing.

On the other hand,

with the arbitrage buying balance accumulated,

there is also a risk that the index will fall significantly when profit-taking occurs.

I will continue to check the arbitrage balance every week.

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■ ③ US Market

In the US market, capital continues to flow into AI and semiconductor-related stocks.

On the other hand,

this week we are awaiting the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) and earnings announcements from major companies,

so a wait-and-see mood remains across the market.

Going forward,

the earnings results of AI-related companies could influence the entire market.

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■ ④ The Biggest Event of the Week

The biggest event this week is

the US CPI (Consumer Price Index).

If

inflation slows down

↓

US interest rates fall

↓

NASDAQ rises

↓

SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) rises

↓

Capital flows into Japanese semiconductor stocks

If this flow occurs,

AI and semiconductor-related stocks could lead the market once again.

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■ ⑤ Capital Flow in Japanese Stocks

Last week,

the TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) remained firm,

and a movement of capital returning to AI and semiconductor stocks was confirmed.

This week, I am focusing on these five themes:

・AI

・Semiconductors

・Electronic components

・Data centers

・Power infrastructure
I believe that rather than the entire market rising,
it will be a market where capital concentrates on strong themes.
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■ ⑥ Trading Strategy for the Week

I

will not chase and buy.

What I am targeting is:

✅ Dips after earnings

✅ Declines due to profit-taking

✅ The first dip accompanied by volume

These three.

In an overheated market,

the idea of

'buying because it went up'

is not the way,

but rather 'picking up dips'

is the important mindset.

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■ Points to watch this week

・US CPI

・SOX Index movement

・NASDAQ strength

・USD/JPY

・US 10-year Treasury yield
・TOPIX strength
・6-day Advance-Decline Ratio
・Arbitrage balance
・Surprise stocks in the earnings season
I will judge the market while checking these 9 items every day.
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■ Summary
The current market is

'a short-term overheating phase within a bull market.'

There is no need to rush and jump in.

While checking the flow of capital,

pick up strong stocks on dips.

I will continue this stance.

This week will be an important week as the US CPI and earnings season begin.

Since there is a possibility that the market flow could change significantly, let's respond flexibly while checking news and timely disclosures.

※ This article is a personal analysis and does not recommend buying or selling specific stocks. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.