2026: How AI Evolution Will Change Work

If the multi-layered subcontracting problem is corrected by AI, how will your work change?

The multi-layered subcontracting structure has been a long-standing prerequisite for small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan. There is a prime contractor, followed by primary, secondary, and tertiary subcontractors, with small-scale businesses at the end performing the actual work.

I am not saying that this structure itself is evil. However, this mechanism has always had the weakness that information and evaluation gather at the top, making the value of the front lines invisible.
The advent of AI is quietly beginning to break this premise.

■ Why has multi-layered subcontracting been established?
The reason multi-layered subcontracting has been established is simple: the ordering party could not see the front lines directly.
Who is doing what kind of work, where, with what quality, and how much? The cost of grasping that was too high. That is why a hub called a prime contractor was necessary.

Small and medium-sized businesses have provided technology and labor, and in return, have entrusted sales and credit building to prime contractors. This division of labor was rational, but at the same time, it was a structure that gave up price-setting power and evaluation criteria.

■ Where is AI starting to break things?
What AI is breaking is not the work itself. It is the parts related to evaluation and visualization.

Progress management, quality evaluation, work logs, and comparison of deliverables. AI has made it possible to handle parts that humans previously judged intuitively as data across the board.

Ordering parties are becoming able to see the actual capabilities of the front lines directly without going through anyone. In other words, the role of the middle layer is not thinning out, but the definition of the role is changing.

■ Will the work of small-scale businesses be taken away?
There will be a clear distinction between work that is taken away and work that actually increases in value.

Work that is just done as told. Work that is replaceable and easy to compare. This will compete directly with AI.
On the other hand, work that involves understanding context, making judgments according to the situation, and taking responsibility for results will conversely come to the forefront.

The correction of multi-layered subcontracting by AI does not mean that the end of the line will disappear. It is closer to saying that the concept of the 'end of the line' itself will disappear.

■ The position required of small and medium-sized businesses from now on
Small and medium-sized businesses from now on will no longer be able to be discussed on the axis of whether they are subcontractors or prime contractors.

What can I do? How far can I make judgments? Which processes can I take responsibility for? Whether you can verbalize this and put it out into the world is everything.

AI can act as a sales agent and a translator of achievements. Conversely, value that cannot be explained will be treated as if it does not exist.

■ Practical changes to be aware of from now on
First, the awareness of leaving a record of the work process becomes important. Not just the deliverables, but the way of thinking, reasons for judgment, and history of revisions. These are all credit information in the AI era.

Next, the axis of price negotiation will change. Instead of hourly rates or work volume, indicators such as judgment unit price, reproducibility, and low accident rates will come to the forefront.

Finally, it is to gradually let go of the premise of being protected by prime contractors. It is scary, but at the same time, it is also an entrance to being fairly evaluated.

The correction of the multi-layered subcontracting problem is not a story where someone is saved. It is a story about transitioning to a world where the structure becomes transparent and the location of value is constantly questioned.

For small-scale businesses, it is not a weeding out, but a timing to re-choose their position.

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AI Future Appraiser / Recruit Storyteller
Lepnet LLC Representative Partner Yuki Kato
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