What are the conditions for overcoming the 'popularity barrier'? — The laws of 'self-sustaining SNS' revealed through data analysis #96

Review of the previous session

Previous conclusion

"If the number of follows increases, the number of followers increases at almost the same rate"
($${R^2 = 0.892}$$).

In other words, the data confirmed that "the volume of activity (follows) generates awareness and strongly influences follower acquisition."

However, this is only about "volume of activity."

Among them, there are so-called "popular accounts" where the number of followers is overwhelmingly higher than the number of follows,
that exist.

They seem to continue gaining followers without having to follow anyone anymore.

"When and how can one be freed from this competition of activity volume?"
— This time, we will look at that question using data.

Hypothesis: Does "popularity rate" measure brand power!?

Ultimately, success on SNS is the transition from "active behavior" to a "state where followers gather on their own."

Therefore, I defined this "popularity rate" as an indicator to measure an account's "brand power."

New indicator: Popularity rate

$${\text{Popularity Rate} = \frac{\text{Followers} - \text{Follows}}{\text{Followers}}}$$

Popularity rate is positive (> 0)

"Popular/self-sustaining accounts" where the number of followers is greater than the number of follows.

Popularity rate is negative (< 0)

"Accounts in growth" that rely on following behavior to gain followers in order to grow.

Data analysis: Distribution of popularity rate and the "self-sustaining line"

1. Looking at the data distribution: Are most accounts negative!?

Once again, using data from 314 accounts, I looked at "popularity rate (= the balance between followers and follows)."

However, this time I didn't use a histogram, but rather a violin plot──
the kind that lets you see the "thickness" of the distribution clearly.

The result?
── Yeah, as expected, it's deep in the negative.

The mean is -0.24, and the median is -0.10.

In other words, more than half of the accounts are in a state where they are "following more people than they are being followed."
It feels like everyone is still at the stage where "if you don't make the first move, no one will notice you."

In terms of the graph, the left side (the negative side) is packed, and the right side (the positive side) is completely empty.

The winners with a positive popularity rate (>0) are only a few percent of the total.

Even the maximum value only reaches 0.85.
In other words, those who are truly "spontaneously followed" are a very select few.

In short, the so-called "popularity barrier" was thicker than I imagined.
It's not about how many people you follow, but only those who have built a "structurally followed mechanism" can make it to the other side of the wall.

── By the way, this is a data analysis unrelated to monetization or the "quality" of followers talk.
It's strictly about the "relationship between the number of follows and followers," and it's a different dimension from active rates or view counts, so please don't misunderstand that.

2. Regression analysis: When does the popularity rate turn positive?

Next, I created a scatter plot of the relationship between "number of followers" and "popularity rate."
The vertical axis is the popularity rate, and the horizontal axis is the number of followers.

But before that, I'll state the premises clearly.
This analysis is based on the following premises.

In other words, the results will change drastically depending on how you slice the data!

• The popularity rate is the ratio of follows to followers, and has nothing to do with view counts

• It is a snapshot as of the acquisition date (at that time)

• Noise (extreme values or dormant accounts) has not been removed

• And, the model validation logic of "is a regression line appropriate?" was not included this time

Roughly speaking, this is what can be read from the results.

While you have few followers, the popularity rate stays stuck at the bottom in the negative.
It's like being trapped in a "gravity well of popularity."

But once you exceed a certain number of followers, the graph should suddenly lift up lol

In this data, that turning point is approximately 18,700 people.
From this point on, the number of accounts whose popularity rate jumps into the positive (>0) increases all at once.
In other words—
there is a possibility that around the '10,000 follower mark' lies a 'barrier where you start to be followed naturally'
exists.

In other words, around 18,000 followers might be the
boundary line between a 'world reached through effort' and a 'world that grows through structure'.

Accounts that cross this line can gain the favor of the algorithm and discover the possibility that the 'structure of being followed' itself changes—

This is just, an observation seen from current data analysis, though!!

In other words, around 18,000 followers might be the
boundary line between a 'world reached through effort' and a 'world that grows through structure'.

Accounts that cross this line can gain the favor of the algorithm and discover the possibility that the 'structure of being followed' itself changes.
※This is just an observation based on current data analysis!!

Observation: The boundary line where an SNS account begins to 'self-sustain'

Generally speaking, it is said that SNS has things like 'network effects' and a 'brand critical point'.

In other words, there exists a moment where, beyond a 'certain point', effort turns into structure.

This phenomenon might already be common knowledge among Note power users or the web marketing community, but when you actually see it in the data—you should think, 'Wow, it's true...'
(Assuming you properly filter out the noise, that is? lol)

Initial Phase (Negative Territory)

A stage where you follow more people than follow you, and you still 'cannot get found unless you take action yourself'.
During this period, the volume of action is life.

Following, commenting, reposting—everything works as an 'exposure action'.
This is the phase where you get the world to remember your face through 'update frequency' and 'consistency'.

Critical Point (Zero Line)

Around the point where the number of people you follow and the number of followers are roughly the same.
Once you cross this, the content itself begins to act as a 'primer'.

In other words, the 'snowball effect' where followers call for more followers is activated.

In a sense, the 'popularity rate = 0 line' is the boundary line that transitions from the 'world of action' to the 'world of structure'.

Self-Sustaining Phase (Positive Territory)

Accounts whose popularity rate has turned positive begin to function as a brand.
Regardless of the number of followers, it is a state where followers increase naturally when you post.

'Even if you don't move, it keeps moving'—in other words, the birth of a self-sustaining account.

In short:

At first, you expand through 'volume of action',
then that action turns into 'cognitive assets',
and eventually, it begins to self-sustain as 'popularity'.

In other words, the popularity rate data shows the very process of
evolving from 'quantity' to 'structure'.

Conclusion: The next stage, from 'quantity' to 'quality'

What became clear from the analysis of the 'popularity rate' I defined on my own is that
a 'boundary line for transitioning from volume of action to self-sustainment' definitely exists. By the way, I just defined the popularity rate like this for the hook👇
$${\text{Popularity Rate} = \frac{\text{Followers} - \text{Following}}{\text{Followers}}}$$
—that's all!

First, as concluded last time—
gain recognition through action (following) and aim for the critical point.

However, to advance beyond that, in addition to mere volume of action,
'appeal beyond the act of following' becomes necessary. In other words,
content with a sense of unity ora consistent posting style.

On SNS, everyone starts with 'action' at first.
But only those who can turn that action into 'assets'
eventually reach theself-sustaining phase known as 'popularity'.

—In other words, it's being said that
'continuation of action' creates 'change in structure'.

Afterword

I realized once again that if you have data, you can really do all sorts of analysis.
……Well, data processing is the most tedious and time-consuming part, though lol

But, while playing with it, didn't you start to think, 'I want to try this myself'?

Google Colab × Python × Plotly

While tinkering with these three,the fun of data should become clear to you.

If you thought this article was
'interesting', 'helpful', or 'a little curious about data analysis'
—
pleaselike, follow, and comment!

And,
☕ if you support me with a tip—
I'll pump my fist and think, 'Oh, my data article really hit the mark!'

Both tips and Amazon are forms of 'thank you'.

Oh, I've been trying out men's grooming to use asconversation topics with young people.
(The experimental spirit is the same for data and skin. Haha)