The Miraculous Conditions for Civilizations to Emerge in the Universe: The Lonely Truth Revealed by Plate Tectonics
When you look up at the night sky, everyone has surely wondered at least once.
Is there any civilization other than us in this vast universe?
To this eternal question, the latest scientific research offers an answer. In conclusion, extraterrestrial civilizations might be far rarer than we imagine.
The Hidden Condition for the Birth of Civilization: The Miracle of Plate Tectonics
Among the characteristics of Earth that we take for granted, there is a factor that is critically important for the birth of civilization. It is a crustal movement called "plate tectonics."
The Earth's surface is divided into "plates" like pieces of a giant puzzle, and these are constantly moving slowly. While this movement causes earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, it actually plays a crucial role in stabilizing the Earth's climate over long periods.
According to the latest research, plate tectonics functions as the "Earth's thermostat," regulating the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Specifically, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reacts with rocks to become carbonates, which are then transported into the Earth's interior through the subduction of plates. Without this process, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would continue to rise, turning the planet into a scorching world like Venus.
A Yardstick for Measuring Extraterrestrial Civilizations: The Relationship Between Energy and Progress
So, if other civilizations exist in the universe, how can we measure their stage of development? To this question, scientists have proposed an interesting scale called the "Kardashev scale."
In this classification system, the level of a civilization is divided based on the amount of energy it can consume as follows:
Type I Civilization: Can utilize the energy of an entire planet (approx. 4×10¹⁷ watts)
Type II Civilization: Can utilize the energy of an entire star (approx. 4×10²⁶ watts)
Type III Civilization: Can control the energy of an entire galaxy (approx. 4×10³⁷ watts)
The current human civilization is at a "sub-Type I" stage, not yet having reached Type I. This is because we are unable to utilize the majority of the energy that pours down onto Earth from the sun.
The Harsh Reality: The Probability of Civilization Emerging
However, the latest research results present us with a harsh reality. According to a research team at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, the probability of an Earth-like habitable planet being born is incredibly low, at one in every 1,000 to 1,000,000 rocky planets.
The reason is that the conditions necessary for a civilization to be born are extremely strict:
Long-term stable plate tectonics
Appropriate atmospheric composition (78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen)
Oxygen concentration of at least 18% (necessary for technological development using fire)
Appropriate amount of carbon dioxide (neither too much nor too little)
Oxygen concentration is particularly important. If it falls below 18%, it becomes impossible to start a fire, making metal smelting impossible. Without fire, there can be no tool-making or cooking, and the development of a technological civilization cannot be expected.
Research suggests that advanced civilizations cannot emerge on planets that do not have both continents and oceans. While early life begins in the ocean, a technological civilization must develop on land.
A Lonely Universe: 33,000 Light-Years to the Nearest Civilization?
Considering these stringent conditions, it is expected that the number of technological civilizations existing in the galaxy at the same time as us is extremely small. According to researchers' calculations, even the closest technological civilization is located about 33,000 light-years away from Earth, and it is highly likely to be an old civilization with a history of at least 280,000 years, or in some cases, millions of years.
Even more shocking is the calculation that for 10 civilizations to exist at the same time, the average lifespan of each civilization would need to be over 10 million years. Considering that the history of human technological civilization is only a few thousand years, this is an incredibly long period.
Earth's plate tectonics are not permanent either.
Research indicates that more than two-thirds of rocky planets in the galaxy are not expected to maintain plate tectonics over a long period.
The Miracle and Responsibility of Our Civilization
At first glance, these research results might feel disheartening. However, looking at it from a different perspective, it teaches us how miraculous and precious our human existence is.
Our civilization was born over a long period of 4.5 billion years on the planet Earth, protected by the exquisite system of plate tectonics. It may be a "jewel"-like existence that is extremely rare in the universe.
At the same time, this discovery makes us feel a great responsibility. If extraterrestrial civilizations are truly rare, do we not have a mission to carefully nurture our own civilization and sustain it for as long as possible?
The Significance of Not Giving Up Hope and Continuing the Search
That said, these research results do not mean that we should stop searching for extraterrestrial civilizations. As researchers emphasize, "Extraterrestrial intelligent life may be rare, but the only way to confirm it is to keep searching."
If nothing is found in the search, this theory becomes more plausible. Conversely, if something is discovered, it will be one of the greatest scientific discoveries in human history and will prove that we are not alone in the universe.
Conclusion: On the Miraculous Stage of Earth
When we look up at the night sky, we might feel a little different now. The possibility that a civilization like ours exists among those stars may be much lower than we thought.
However, that is precisely why our existence is special. Protected by Earth's unique system of plate tectonics and wrapped in an atmosphere of exquisite balance, we are able to think about, explore, and create the mysteries of the universe.
What should we accomplish on this miraculous stage? And how should we pass on this precious civilization to the next generation? The lonely truth of the universe is asking each of us such a profound question.
Reference Article
〇Civilization Can't Arise Without Plate Tectonics And Carbon Dioxide (September 2025)
○ Plate Tectonics and the Origin of Life (November 2024)
○ On the Scale for Measuring Civilizations in the Universe (May 19, 2024)
○ The importance of continents, oceans and plate tectonics for the evolution of complex life: implications for finding extraterrestrial civilizations (April 12, 2024)
○ Earth's Tectonic Activity May Be Crucial for Life--And Rare in Our Galaxy (March 11, 2024)
○ Plate Tectonics And CO2 On Planets Suggest Alien Civilizations "Are Probably Pretty Rare" (September 17, 2025)