【Investing in the Future💛】Background of Increased Capital Investment and Shortage Perception🏭 From the Perspective of Macroeconomics and Investment Theory🌏: 2026 White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises No. 16

A lecture series carefully reading through the 2026 White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises📘
The theme this time is
Capital Investment Trends for small and medium enterprises.

Last time, we explained the
'hardships and polarization' of small and medium enterprises that have been unable to pass on the rise in raw material and purchase prices to sales prices💦
The situation remains severe in terms of profitability.
However, even amidst this sense of stagnation, small and medium enterprises are
by no means standing idly by.

Continuing to use data from the White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises,
let's organize what kind of investment actions small and medium enterprises are taking
toward their next growth,
and how this connects to other subjects on the exam!

'Recent Upward Trend' Seen in Capital Investment Trends

First, let's check the 'Trends in Capital Investment' by company size (Figure 1 below)👍

The graph shows the long-term trends for 'Large Enterprises (light blue line)',
'Medium-sized Enterprises (orange line)', and 'Small Enterprises (red line)'.

✅① Level difference with large enterprises and recent recovery
Looking at the absolute amount of investment, the capital investment of small and medium enterprises and small-scale businesses
remains at a lower level compared to large enterprises (25.7 trillion yen)📝
However, the recent movement is worth noting!

✅② Upward trend for both medium and small enterprises
Looking at the data for fiscal year 2024,
medium-sized enterprises reached 14.2 trillion yen, and small enterprises reached 5.0 trillion yen,
both of which have turned to an upward trend recently👍
Even in a harsh external environment of high prices and labor shortages,
it can be seen that investments aimed at labor saving, efficiency, or developing new sales channels are becoming active📈

'Shortage Perception in Non-Manufacturing Industries' Seen in Production/Sales Equipment DI

Next, let's turn our attention to the 'Trends in Production/Sales Equipment DI' (Figure 2 below), which shows how companies evaluate their current equipment levels🔍

This DI is calculated by subtracting the percentage of companies that answered 'equipment is excessive' from the percentage of companies that answered 'shortage'.
Therefore, please remember that the further the graph goes down (into the negative zone),
the more it means that the field feels that 'equipment is insufficient'👍

✅① Notable shortage perception in non-manufacturing industries
The one moving at the lowest position on the graph is
'Small and Medium Enterprises Non-Manufacturing (red line)'.
It has continued to move in the negative zone recently,
and compared to the manufacturing industry (orange line),
the sense of equipment shortage is significant.

✅② Recovery in service demand and delay in investment
The real-world environment of non-manufacturing industries, where the introduction of labor-saving equipment, IT systems, and store equipment to compensate for labor shortages has not kept up with the recovery in demand for face-to-face services and inbound tourism since the COVID-19 pandemic,
is likely reflected in this strong sense of shortage.

Connection to Economics and Economic Policy: 'Investment Decision Theory' that Influences the Economy🌟

The current situation where small and medium enterprises are increasing investment even under harsh environments,
and especially feeling an equipment shortage in non-manufacturing industries,
is the very model linked to the private capital investment function in macroeconomic goods market analysis (IS curve).

To ensure you score points on the exam, let's organize it logically in your brain using mathematical models🧠

① Structure of (Investment Function) seen in mathematical formulas

In macroeconomics, private capital investment $${I}$$ is
expressed using national income $${Y}$$ and nominal interest rate $${i}$$
with the following functional model.

$${\text{投資関数: } I = I_0 + bY - ci}$$

The meanings of each variable are as follows.

• $${I_0}$$: (Autonomous investment) (Investment made spontaneously due to expectations for the future or technological innovation, regardless of current income or interest rates)

• $${b}$$: Income sensitivity of investment ($${b > 0}$$, the ratio indicating how much investment increases when income or demand increases)

• $${c}$$: Interest rate sensitivity of investment ($${c > 0}$$, the ratio indicating how much investment is restrained when interest rates rise)

② The mechanism by which autonomous investment and demand changes overcome the headwinds of interest rate hikes

The current Japanese economy is in a phase of rising interest rates
(an increase in the interest rate $${i}$$)🏦

In the above formula, the negative term $${-ci}$$
becomes larger, so theoretically,
investment $${I}$$ should decrease.

However, why is the investment amount
increasing in the White Paper data (Figure 1)?

The reason is that the remaining two factors
are considered to significantly outweigh the decrease
from $${-ci}$$.

① Boosting autonomous investment ($${I_0}$$)
Labor-saving investment to resolve labor shortages (such as self-checkout machines)
and digital investment aimed at DX
are unavoidable investments that cannot be stopped
just because interest rates have risen slightly.
It can be considered that this structural change
is significantly pushing up autonomous investment $${I_0}$$ itself!

② Increase in income sensitivity of investment ($${bY}$$)
Due to the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, demand (national income $${Y}$$)
has increased, especially in non-manufacturing industries!
As based on the accelerator principle in macroeconomics,
the magnitude of the change in demand
is also considered a factor strongly pushing investment appetite!

Mathematical formulation of equipment shortages based on the capital stock adjustment principle

The strong sense of equipment shortage in non-manufacturing industries shown in Figure 2
can be explained by the mathematical model of the capital stock adjustment principle.

If $${K^*}$$ is the optimal amount of equipment for a company in each period
and $${K}$$ is the current actual amount of equipment,
the required capital investment $${I}$$
is expressed by the following relational expression!

$${\\ \text{投資決定モデル: } I = \alpha (K^* - K)}$$
※$${\alpha}$$: Adjustment speed ($${0 < \alpha < 1}$$
coefficient indicating how quickly the gap is filled)

Let's connect current analysis with theory!
The fact that the equipment judgment DI for non-manufacturing industries is significantly negative
means that relative to the actual equipment amount $${K}$$ in the denominator,
the optimal equipment amount $${K^*}$$ accompanying the rapid increase in demand
is relatively large, meaning a gap of $${(K^* - K) > 0}$$ exists.

The magnitude of the gap indicated by this formula becomes the driving force,
which can be theoretically interpreted as causing the robust increase
in current capital investment ($${I}$$)👍

The summary of this lecture is as follows✨

• Capital investment by small and medium-sized enterprises and small businesses, while at a lower level than that of large enterprises, is trending upward at present.

• In the DI for production and business equipment judgment, a sense of shortage is prominent in the non-manufacturing sector, revealing the current situation where companies are being forced to respond to recovering demand and labor shortages.

As shown in economic mathematical models, the gap between changes in demand and
the sense of shortage is driving corporate investment.
By having a perspective that utilizes knowledge and
models based on macroeconomic theory in this way,
you will be able to appropriately analyze
the investment plans of individual companies from a broader perspective🔥

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Reference Links & Recommended Texts📚

✅Small and Medium Enterprise Agency
What is a Small and Medium Enterprise Management Consultant

White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises - Small and Medium Enterprise Agency - Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

2026 Edition "White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises" Full Text

Study & Qualification Exam Preparation Summary Magazine🔖

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