Why the music market is at an all-time high, even though people say 'you can't make a living on music streaming.'

Truth be told, I am a huge fan of Sakanaction. I am praying that my lottery ticket for their live concert wins again this year. The words spoken by Ichiro Yamaguchi of Sakanaction, an artist I admire so much, in a YouTube stream recently became a hot topic.

He also mentioned that in the CD era, the royalty was “90 yen from a 3,000 yen CD.” On the X timeline, comments like “there’s no dream in this” and “it’s an era where you can’t make a living from music” were lined up.

I understand how they feel. When a 3,000 yen CD sells, you get 90 yen. If it sells 2 million copies, that’s 180 million yen. Now, it’s a fraction of a yen per stream. It’s natural that people who know that era would want to say it’s “basically non-existent.”

However, there is more to this story.

Following this statement, a post that actually calculated the numbers started circulating. Using actual values via a distribution service called TuneCore, it’s about 0.64 yen per stream. For 300 million streams, that’s 0.64 yen × 300 million = 192 million yen.

The royalties for 2 million CDs were 180 million yen. 300 million streams on a subscription service is 192 million yen.

It is basically the same amount.

Don’t you think, “Wait, what?” The subscription revenue that was supposed to be “basically non-existent” turns out to be the same amount as a massive hit in the golden age of CDs when you calculate it. Is Mr. Yamaguchi wrong, or is the estimate wrong?

I believe both are correct. And it is precisely in the place where “both are correct” can hold true that the most important structure of today’s entertainment business is hidden.

There is only one question.

Has music really become cheaper?

In this note, titled “Practical Studies in Entertainment Business,” I write articles that decode the structure of entertainment × IP from the perspective of someone in the field. If you are interested, I would be happy if you followed me and checked out my other articles.

“Basically non-existent” and “192 million yen” are both correct

To give away the punchline first, Mr. Yamaguchi’s lived experience and the 192 million yen estimate are talking about different things.

The unit price of 0.64 yen is an actual value for cases where it comes directly to the artist via a distribution agency. On the other hand, the streaming revenue for artists signed to major labels passes through many layers— “streaming service → label → agency → recovery of production costs → the artist themselves”—before it reaches them. Each layer takes its cut as compensation for its function. In the summary, there were also points made that “if you are signed to a major label, the actual take-home pay is negligible.” Depending on how many layers it passes through, the amount received for the same 300 million streams changes drastically.

In other words, it’s not that “subscriptions don’t pay,” but rather that for the same 300 million streams, your take-home pay changes by an order of magnitude depending on whether you receive it directly via TuneCore (a global music distribution service that allows independent artists to easily distribute and sell their music to stores like Apple Music and Spotify and social media to monetize it) or receive it at the end of a multi-layered structure.

Previously, in an article about J-POP’s global expansion, I wrote that “which path you choose to go out is not about how much you earn, but a choice that determines what you will have left in your hands five years from now.” It’s not just when you go out. When you receive, the exact same structure of paths is at work.

I have seen copyright royalty distributions to death

Let me talk about my past here.

I am not in the music industry. However, at my previous job at an entertainment company, I saw an endless amount of 'copyright royalty distribution' in the manga industry.

When a paper manga volume is sold, roughly half of the list price—or 60% for powerful publishers—goes to the publisher. This is called the 'net price' (the wholesale rate from the publisher to the distributor), and it is strictly determined. A little less than half of the remainder goes to the bookstore side. Then, even more is deducted from that. The copyright royalties that go to the author are included in this net price, and it is roughly around 10% of the list price.

When it comes to e-books, there are no paper costs, shipping, or returns. The cost of reproduction is almost zero. So, has the author's share increased? In my experience, it is 10%. Sometimes 15%. The publisher's share is 40-50% at the low end, and up to 70% at the high end. The distributor's fee is 3-5%, and the platform starts from what is left.

On the other hand, there are services like note, blogs, and Amazon Indies manga where you can receive sales directly. On note, the author receives everything except for a 10% fee. Blogs also earn advertising revenue based on page views. No publishers or distributors stand in between.

Even though the cost of reproduction disappeared, the layers of distribution did not.

To be clear, this hierarchy is not exploitation. Editing, promotion, and inventory risk are all functions that each layer performs in exchange for their share. Works that were released because of a publisher reach an even wider audience. The issue is not about good or evil, but rather about the facts.

What determines the creator's take-home pay is not the unit price, but the number of layers.

As someone who has watched copyright royalty distribution, when I saw the figures from Sakanaction's Yamaguchi and J2kawa side-by-side, it looked like a familiar scene. If you receive it at the bottom of a multi-layered structure, it is 'almost nothing.' If you receive it through a direct path, it is the same amount as a big hit in the CD era. Both are true; the difference is not the song or the number of plays, but the path it travels on.

Far from being a 'declining industry,' music is at an all-time high

Let me present another surprising figure.

IFPI (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry) 2026 report, the global recorded music market in 2025 was $31.7 billion. This is a 6.4% increase from the previous year and the 11th consecutive year of growth. For the first time in history, it has exceeded $30 billion. There are 837 million paid streaming subscribers.

Far from being an 'era where you can't make a living on music,' the recorded music market is the most profitable it has ever been in human history.

What is even more interesting is that, according to the same report, physical media (CDs and records) has returned to growth at 8.0%. Records in particular are up 13.7%, marking 19 consecutive years of growth. In 2025, when streaming has become the norm, 'physical' music is growing.

Even though the unit price per play continues to fall, the industry as a whole is at an all-time high, and physical goods are making a comeback. They may look like unrelated phenomena, but when you put them on a single map, everything connects.

The value of things that cannot be copied is skyrocketing

The price of entertainment is beginning to polarize based on whether it 'can be copied or cannot be copied.'

Things that can be copied: playback, streaming, data. These are becoming infinitely thinner, broader, and cheaper. It is a world of 0.64 yen per play. In exchange, it reaches the other side of the globe in an instant.

Things that cannot be copied: live performances, on-site experiences, physical goods. These, conversely, continue to hit all-time highs.

I will pile on the evidence.

Pia Research Institute reports that Japan's live entertainment market reached 760.5 billion yen in 2024. This is a 10.9% increase from the previous year and an all-time high. It is also a 20% increase compared to 2019, before the pandemic. In an era where all kinds of music can be heard at any time, the price of 'that night, in that place' has become the highest.

Across the ocean, it is even more extreme. In 2024, the NBA signed an 11-year, $76 billion broadcasting rights deal with Disney, NBC, and Amazon. That is about 2.6 times the annual amount compared to before. And this month's Game 3 of the Finals was watched by an average of about 24 million people, including simultaneous streaming, which is the highest figure for a Game 3 since 1998. That is the first time in 28 years, since Jordan's last championship year. Even though it has been over 10 years since people said 'TV is dead,' only live broadcasts continue to set records on the supposedly dead medium of television.

Netflix's moves are the most honest. The company that became the world's best with the weapon of 'watch anytime' is now buying up 'things you can only watch that night.' The Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight in November 2024 was watched live by 108 million people worldwide, according to Netflix's announcement. The NFL Christmas game averaged 26.5 million viewers in the U.S. alone. Starting in 2025, they secured the flagship WWE program Raw with a 10-year contract. The king of copyable works is coming to buy the uncopyable 'tonight.'

And then there is the World Cup currently underway. For the 2026 tournament, all104matches will only be available to watch live onDAZNexclusively. For the 2022 tournament, all matches were free on ABEMA, weren't they? In just four years, the world's greatest "simultaneity" has moved from a free window to behind a paid one. I don't think there is any clearer evidence that the price of simultaneity continues to rise.

Playback has become a fuse, not a collection device

Once you reach this point, you can see where Mr. Yamaguchi's "meaningless" fits in.

It is not that 300 million streams are meaningless. It is that we have entered an era where recovery cannot be completed with "only" 300 million streams.

In the CD era, reproduction was the collection device itself. Because you had no choice but to buy it if you wanted to listen, a price of 3,000 yen could be attached to a reproduction. Now, a reproduction is like a fuse, spreading thinly across the world for 0.64 yen. And the collection device where the fire is lit has moved outside of the reproduction. The live music market is hitting a record high of 760.5 billion yen. Recorded music has grown for 19 consecutive years. People go to venues even if it's expensive, and they buy things because they want to deliver support directly to that person.

K-POP is the textbook example of this. Even though it is said that CDs don't sell, K-POP albums continue to sell in physical form. That is no longer a "disc for listening to music," but a "physical connection to your favorite artist" that includes photo cards. The CD as a reproduction is dead, but the CD as an uncopyable object is alive.

Previously, in an article reading Spotifydata, I introduced the figure that 80% of artists earning 100 million yen a year have never had a viral hit. It is a structure supported by a core 1% of fans outside of streaming—through live shows, merchandise, and direct support. Viral success (an explosion of streams) and being able to make a living (recovery) are now separate events.

An era where you can design how you are received

To conclude.

Musicians of Mr. Yamaguchi's generation know the most prosperous landscape of the era when reproduction was the collection device. Compared to that view, the current per-stream rate is certainly "almost nothing." I don't think that feeling is a lie or an exaggeration.

But the map that people starting out now should look at is a different one.

Reproduction is at its cheapest and reaches further than ever before. A 0.64 yen fuse carries fire to someone in a country where not a single CD has ever been placed. And the collection device is waiting at an all-time high value. Japan's live music market is at a record high of 760.5 billion yen. The global recorded music market has grown for 11 consecutive years to 31.7 billion dollars. Just as Ado filled 20,000 seats in Los Angeles and obtained a "list of her own customers," those who turn relationships into assets at the end of the fuse will accumulate revenue outside of reproduction.

As someone who has watched the distribution of manga royalties, one last thing. What determines a creator's take-home pay is not the amount of talent or the number of streams, but the design of the business structure. And the options for that are overwhelmingly greater now than in the era when there were only CDs and paper books.

300 million streams are not meaningless. You have become able to choose for yourself how to extract the meaning.

That is how this era looks to me.

Until next time.

In this note, I share information about entertainment, pop culture, and technology from a producer's perspective. If you are even slightly interested in these topics, please be sure to like and follow.

The membership "Awakening Conference" is 980 yen per month, and you get unlimited access to two or more exclusive articles every week, as well as all past articles. Rather than buying just one, it is much more cost-effective to read everything for the price of one lunch. If you are curious, please take a look.