Why do people see 'hope' in cold probabilities? — The psychology of Bayesian statistics and future prediction

We usually have a somewhat cold impression of the word probability.

A 30% chance of success.
A 70% chance of failure.

Looking only at the numbers, there is no emotion there.
They are just calculation results.

Yet, strangely, people find 'hope' within probability.

Even if the success rate is 10%,
we feel that 'there is still a possibility'.

Conversely, even if the success rate is 90%,
we feel anxious, thinking 'maybe I might fail'.

Where does this contradiction come from?

■ Probability is a 'tool for updating the future'

This is where the concept of Bayesian statistics comes in.

The basics of Bayesian statistics are very simple.

Update the probability every time new information comes in.

For example, let's think about the weather forecast.

In the morning,
the probability of rain is 30%.

But by noon,
dark clouds have appeared.

Then we naturally think:

'The probability of rain might be higher.'

In this way,
the thinking of updating the probability of the future based on information.

This is Bayesian thinking.

This is what is important.

The future is not something fixed, but rather
a distribution of possibilities that changes based on information.

■ Hope is born in the 'margin of probability'

If the probability is 100%,
there is no hope there.

This is because the outcome is already determined.

However, if the probability is 80%,
there is still a 20% margin.

People see
possibility in this margin.

It is the same in sports matches.

Even if they are losing with one minute left,
the players keep running until the end.

If you look only at the probability,
a comeback is difficult.

Yet, people still take action.

This is because probability is
a 'map of possibilities' and
not a 'determination of the future'.

■ The human brain is bad at probability

However, human intuition is
not good at understanding probability accurately.

Take the lottery, for example.

Even though the winning probability is extremely low,
many people feel that they 'might win'.

Conversely, even though the probability of a plane crash is extremely low,
some people feel strong anxiety.

This is because the brain
adjusts probability based on emotion instead of logic.

We judge based on images,
not numbers.

However, this trait
is not entirely a bad thing.

In fact, human drive
often stems from this 'distortion of probability'.

■ Actions change even with the same probability

Here, let's consider the perspective of the 3-layer trait activation method.

For example, when there is a challenge with a 30% success rate.

People of the 'Heat' type are likely to say,
'If there's a 30% chance, let's do it,' and move toward action.
This is because the challenge itself becomes their energy.

'Creation' types might think,
'Is there a way to change the probability?' and
create a new strategy.

If it's a 'Law' type,
they will analyze 'how to increase the success rate' and
repeat preparations and verifications.

'Harmony' types might try to increase the success rate by
gathering allies or
building cooperative relationships.

And 'Intuition' types,
because they strongly imagine future possibilities,
if they can visualize success,
they may move toward action all at once.

Even with the same number of 30%,
the way the 'future is seen' changes depending on the trait.

■ The future is not fixed

What Bayesian statistics shows is
a very important way of thinking.

The future is not singular.

It exists as a collection of possibilities.

And through information and action,
that probability changes.

In other words,
the future is not something static, but
something that continues to be updated.

■ Hope lies within probability

Probability looks like cold numbers.

However, within it,
there is a future that has not yet been decided.

As long as it is not 100%,
there is room for maneuver in the world.

That room for maneuver
moves people.

People who challenge.
People who keep learning.
People who start new things.

They are not ignoring probability.

Rather, they understand it.

They understand that probability does not bind the future, but is instead a
map for updating the future.

That is precisely why hope can be born from any probability.

As long as the possibility is not zero,
the future can still be rewritten.

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