Stories of the Japanese 00734 [Late Kamakura Period] Kaitaishi-sho: Admonitions to the Crown Prince

February, 1330 (Gentoku 2). Retired Emperor Hanazono authored a document known as the "Kaitaishi-sho" (Admonitions to the Crown Prince) and presented it to his nephew, Crown Prince Kazuhito. This document recorded admonitions for the Crown Prince, and the original manuscript written in Retired Emperor Hanazono's own hand is still preserved today in the Imperial Household Agency's Archives and Mausolea Department.
The content of this document is incredibly intense. Let us quote a portion of it.
"Heaven created the people and established the Emperor to govern them. One must guide the ignorant people with benevolence and control the unlearned masses through governance. If one lacks the talent for this, one should not occupy that position. Since even the misgovernment of a subject can throw the world into chaos, a monarch must be even more cautious in their actions.
However, the Crown Prince has been raised in the palace and does not know the suffering of the people, nor does he seek to know it. He has no achievements for the nation and no benevolence toward the people. He merely expects to inherit the throne thanks to his predecessor, and intends to stand above the people without virtue or merit. Is he not ashamed of this? Furthermore, among the paths of poetry, history, ritual, and music, can he say he is proficient in even one? I want him to reflect upon himself. (Omitted)
By the way, fools say, 'Our country's Emperor is of an unbroken line. Unlike foreign countries where dynasties have repeatedly risen and fallen, the protection of our Imperial ancestors is exceptional. It is enough to simply protect the existing Imperial line.' The ignorant agree with this. I believe this is a profound error. It is not logical that the Imperial line can be maintained even if virtue is thin. Whether a dynasty prospers for a long time or perishes quickly depends on the presence or absence of virtue. Moreover, since the middle ages, wars have occurred and Imperial authority has declined.
Crown Prince, think carefully about the causes of the rise and fall of dynasties to date. The answer is right before your eyes. In times of peace, even a mediocre monarch might be able to rule. Although a great rebellion has not yet occurred, it has been a long time since the signs of such a rebellion began to appear. If a virtuous person is on the throne, there is no need to worry. If a wise monarch handles state affairs, rebellion will not occur. However, if the monarch is not wise, rebellion will occur within just a few years. And once a rebellion has occurred, even a wise monarch cannot easily govern, and it will take years. If a mediocre monarch encounters this rebellion, the country will decline day by day, the government will fall into disorder day by day, and it will inevitably collapse.
Recent monarchs have managed to avoid this opportunity, but perhaps this period of decline and chaos will arrive while the Crown Prince is on the throne. Without wise intelligence and strategy, one cannot govern a disordered country. This is the reason I encourage academic study. (Omitted)"
Retired Emperor Hanazono feared that the appearance of a monarch without virtue would bring a crisis of survival to the Imperial line. And at this point, he was predicting that a great war would soon occur.
And history proceeded exactly as Retired Emperor Hanazono had feared...