[My View on This Morning's Economy] Why on earth would we read 'minutes from three weeks ago' now?

■ One news item for this morning

A new week has begun. Last Friday, the Nikkei Stock Average saw a sharp reversal of +1,010 yen, closing back above the 70,000 yen mark it had briefly dipped below (69,744 yen). The biggest focus this week is the minutes of the US FOMC meeting to be released on Wednesday, July 8. Due to the time difference, it will be available to read in Japan at 3:00 AM on Thursday, July 9. The content is the "minutes" of the monetary policy meeting held on June 16-17.

■ My view

I want to pause here and note that these minutes are a "record of a meeting from three weeks ago." Nearly three weeks have passed since that meeting. Moreover, in the meantime, there was a major event: last week's employment statistics. The increase in the number of employed persons was about half of what was expected (+57,000), a weakness that has caused the market to lean heavily toward the sentiment that "the Fed's interest rate hikes are already over."

In other words, what we will be reading in the early hours of July 9 is the discussion that took place "before that sentiment emerged." We are going to peek at the hand of cards before the turn, after the premise has already been flipped over. Even so, people brace themselves for the 3:00 AM minutes, wanting to "know the Fed's true intentions." I understand the feeling. I am curious about the content, too. But I think "wanting to know" and "acting on it" are completely different things.

■ So, what will I do?

To be honest, at 3:00 AM on Thursday, July 9, I will be asleep. Even if the market fluctuates based on the minutes, I will not be adjusting my investment settings the next morning based on what I see.

The minutes are interesting as reading material. I don't mind following in text how hawkish Chair Warsh is. But I read that as "general knowledge," not as a "signal for buying or selling." Trying to guess today's move based on a discussion from three weeks ago, especially after the premise has changed, is probably the easiest way for an ordinary household like mine to lose money. So this week, too, I will just calmly continue to invest the amount I decided on every month. I will consciously separate the freshness of the news from whether or not I take action.

■ A word

Rather than staying up until 3:00 AM waiting for the minutes, it is probably better for your assets to be asleep during that time. This week, too, don't let the headlines drive up your heart rate.

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