Unreadable Again! Pro-Wrestling Market Theory

Are you familiar with the manga "Grappler Baki Gaiden: Mount Toba vs. Antonio Igari"? Do you know it?

It is a story about Giant Baba and Antonio Inoki fighting in secret in an arena beneath the Tokyo Dome, but this work, which packs in the charm of the sport of pro-wrestling as much as possible, is no exaggeration to call the pinnacle of human literary art.
How clean, polite, and serious pro-wrestling is.

Some of you might be wondering what I am talking about,
but this time I will think about "competitive strategy by position" through the pro-wrestling industry.
However, before entering the main topic, I will write a little more of a prologue. Since it is quite unrelated content, you can skip the next chapter if you like.

Are you honest with the truth, or honest with lies?

Some people say that pro-wrestling is "fixed."
It is true that pro-wrestling has a "story." Series events have a beginning, middle, and end, and generally proceed according to a script.
But so what?
Compared to combat sports where a match is stopped just because you took a good punch to the head, in pro-wrestling, they won't stop the match even for a torn medial collateral ligament.
It is not such a soft world. You are not allowed to leave the ring until the story is completed.
It is certainly wonderful to strive for the world's strongest in combat sports. But isn't that obvious?
However, to me, a pro-wrestler who engages in lonely training every day to carry out a fake that is just as dangerous as aiming for the strongest looks incredibly cool.
Who understands the sincerity of a pro-wrestler who shows us the strength of their heart and body and gives us courage, and that loneliness?
"Honesty" is such a lonely word?

Kotler's "Competitive Strategy by Position"

I'm sorry. From here is the main topic.
The competitive strategy by position that we will examine this time is a competitive strategy theory proposed by American management scholar Philip Kotler. From the perspective of market share, he classifies companies into four types: "Leader", "Challenger", "Nicher", and "Follower", and presents strategies according to their competitive position.
I would like to examine the strategies corresponding to these four positions through the pro-wrestling market.
The pro-wrestling market is located in an even more niche area of the relatively niche combat sports industry within the entertainment industry. However, while surviving a long period of stagnation, the division of roles among the four parties became clear, and this formed a stable market in its own way. I would like to look at it carefully as an excellent model case for competitive strategy by position.

Note that this article does not cover women's pro-wrestling (Stardom, etc.). The market structure of women's pro-wrestling is multidimensionally connected to multiple markets such as "women's fighting," "idols," and "catfights," and is more complex than men's, or rather, unanalyzable. I would like to cover it in an independent article someday.

A Short History of Pro-Wrestling: From Lancashire to the Tokyo Dome

The origin of pro-wrestling is in the Lancashire region of England. The "Lancashire style," which focuses on joint techniques, went to America in the 19th century and was commercialized as "catch-as-catch-can." Up to this point, it was a pure combat sport.

However, serious matches tended to be plain and boring for the audience. There are limited enthusiasts who will pay for matches where grappling exchanges continue endlessly.
In addition, to avoid risks such as not being able to fight consecutive matches or injuries, and to make it work as a business, they set up heroes and villains and sublimated it into entertainment with drama.
In the process of this evolution, America steered toward "entertainment" that puts the wrestler's character to the fore, while Japan, perhaps due to its serious national character, evolved differently into "strong style," which is based on the pursuit of technique and generational struggle, as advocated by Antonio Inoki.
Rikidozan, Giant Baba, Antonio Inoki, and Tiger Mask. Japanese pro-wrestling gained national popularity during the golden age of terrestrial television while relying on the charisma of individual stars, but it entered a "winter period" due to the realistic route of mixed martial arts in the 2000s.
Even New Japan Pro-Wrestling, the largest in the industry, was plagued by rumors of a cash shortage, and its very existence as a genre was feared to be in danger.

During such difficult times, Hiroshi Tanahashi removed Antonio Inoki's portrait from the dojo and denied "Showa Pro-Wrestling."
By accumulating sincere and earnest promotions at the grassroots level, surviving on the edge, the turning point was 2012. Card game company Bushiroad acquired New Japan Pro-Wrestling. From here, a V-shaped recovery began. Pro-Wrestling was redefined from an "outdated show" to a "strategic IP business." Furthermore, in 2018, Harold George Meij, who has a reputation for brand building, was invited as President and CEO, and it reached a point where it was once difficult to obtain tickets.

In this history, over 100 pro-wrestling organizations have sprung up in Japan. Factions over the ideal image of pro-wrestling, friction in master-disciple relationships, and friction in generational change. Every human drama has created the separation and gathering of organizations, and as a result, an extremely fragmented market structure has been created.

The Current State of the Domestic Pro-Wrestling Market: Recovery and Structural Changes Told by Numbers

The total attendance for domestic pro-wrestling recorded 1.14 million (2,313 events) in 2019, before COVID-19. In 2020, it plummeted to 430,000 (1,601 events) due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it has recovered steadily since then, returning to 910,000 (2,870 events) in 2024.

However, while the number of events is 2,870, significantly exceeding the 2,313 before COVID-19, attendance is 910,000, which has not yet reached the 1.14 million of 2019. In other words, the number of events has increased, but the attendance per event has decreased. This is a structural issue for the entire industry.

Looking at the market share by organization, the composition becomes even clearer. In the 2024 annual domestic total attendance ranking, New Japan Pro-Wrestling (NJPW) took the top spot with 249,502 people, a 27% share. Following them are DragonGate with 93,589 people (10%), Stardom with 79,505 people (8%), NOAH with 64,312 people (7%), All Japan Pro-Wrestling with 63,551 people (6%), and DDT with 55,499 people (6%).Surprisingly, DragonGate is in 2nd place!

What is noteworthy is that New Japan's share has been gradually declining from 34% in 2018 to 27% in 2024. While their absolute lead remains unshaken, their dominance is certainly waning. Meanwhile, NOAH has risen from 7th place (2% share) in 2020 to 4th place (7%) in 2024. DragonGate has consistently maintained its position in the 2nd-place tier (9-10%). While the top ranks are becoming fixed, we are seeing the rise of mid-tier organizations—a typical movement in a mature market.

Let's break down this market structure using marketing theory.

Four Positions

The competitive position strategy proposed by Philip Kotler is a framework that classifies a company's position in the market into four categories and defines the optimal way to compete according to each stance.

Leaders are companies with the top market share. With the largest management resources in both quality and quantity, their basic strategy is 'market expansion' and 'share defense.' They bear the responsibility of setting industry standards, developing new customers, and growing the pie itself.

Challengers are the industry's 2nd and 3rd place companies. They have the resources to challenge the leader, but cannot win in a head-on collision. Their basic strategy is differentiation from the leader and attacking the leader's weaknesses.

Nichers have limited management resources but build a unique position in a specific specialized field. This is what the Lanchester strategy calls 'local warfare and concentration on a single point.' They monopolize areas that major players cannot touch or find no profit in entering.

Followers are not at the top of market share, but their main strategy is to imitate the leader to ensure stable revenue without overly provoking them. The essence is not mere 'copying,' but taking an intentional non-confrontational strategy.

When applying these four positions to the pro-wrestling industry, the placement is surprisingly clear.

Leader: New Japan Pro-Wrestling—Intellectual Property and the Logic of 'Assimilation'

The market leader in the domestic pro-wrestling industry is New Japan Pro-Wrestling. There should be no disagreement there.

The annual attendance in 2024 was 249,502, ranking first in the country with a 27% share. For the fiscal year ending June 2024, non-consolidated sales were 5.017 billion yen, with ordinary profit of 447 million yen. In the internal rating of the parent company Bushiroad, it is positioned as a powerful intellectual property, or an 'A-rank IP,' generating annual sales of over 4 billion yen. Their proprietary video streaming platform, 'NJPW WORLD,' has reached a record high of 116,000 members, and their television exposure via BS Asahi's 'World Pro Wrestling' remains robust.

New Japan's leader strategy is textbook. Since becoming a subsidiary of Bushiroad, they have sought to expand the market beyond traditional core fans—to children, women, and light fans—through transit advertising, collaborations with card games, and appearances on variety shows. They conduct dominant regional development through national tours, culminating in big matches like 'WRESTLE KINGDOM' and 'G1 CLIMAX,' and have expanded overseas to Singapore, Taiwan, and the United States.

The core of New Japan's strength lies in the overwhelming quality of human resources and brand power. Hiroshi Tanahashi (retired in 2026), Kazuchika Okada (currently with WWE), and Tetsuya Naito (left in 2025). They have continued to produce star wrestlers who represent the Japanese pro-wrestling world. The 'dojo system,' which has its roots in sumo stable training dating back to the era of former Sekiwake Rikidozan, is a classical training method. However, this long-term talent development, which is only permitted for a leader with surplus resources, produces employees (wrestlers) who technically surpass those of other organizations.

And there is one more strategy unique to a leader: the 'assimilation strategy.'

New Japan incorporates novel productions and event formats that other organizations have succeeded with into their own company using overwhelming volume and production power. The moment a leader says, 'We'll do that too,' the effectiveness of the differentiation created by challengers or nichers vanishes. This is a rational defensive strategy that a leader should take, and it is self-evident that if the same service is provided, the service of a leader with financial power will be of higher quality. During the stagnation of the COVID period, they actively held joint events with other organizations and absorbed their know-how. Now, New Japan even does deathmatches.

However, it is not without blind spots. The average attendance for the G1 CLIMAX dropped from 2,804 in 2023 to 2,267 in 2025. The decline of their flagship series is beginning to show in the numbers. Their share has also gradually declined from 34% to 27%. The ordinary profit margin is about 8.9%, and profitability is lackluster. A structural issue is their high dependence on box office revenue, failing to increase the weight of media rights revenue like the WWE mentioned later. Also, the 'dojo system,' which trains wrestlers thoroughly before their debut, inevitably leads to a late debut, causing the overall roster to age. From an event perspective, there is also the circumstance of having to rely on veteran wrestlers with established brand power. Even for New Japan, it is difficult to make an event successful if they hold back.
Did you notice that the three people mentioned at the beginning—Tanahashi, Okada, and Naito—are already gone? The
metal fatigue of the asset known as wrestlers is the biggest challenge. The pro-wrestling industry is a
labor-intensive industry. It is common management knowledge that the only way to stop the decline in manpower due to aging is to train young talent, but the organizational rigidity inherent in being a leader is hindering this.

Challenger: DRAGON GATE—Excessive Service

The challenger's position is held by DRAGON GATE.

With an annual attendance of 93,589 and a 10% market share, they have consistently maintained a second-place position from 2018 to 2024. In fact, this organization is the industry's perennial runner-up in terms of attendance. They possess their own streaming service, "DRAGONGATE NETWORK" (1,650 yen per month), which broadcasts over 50 major events annually, and they have the capability to draw a capacity crowd of 4,795 for their annual event at the Kobe World Memorial Hall. With 165 events per year, they are among the most active of the major organizations.

The strategic essence of DRAGON GATE lies in hiring wrestlers different from the leader and appealing to the market with a different strategy. They are a challenger leaning toward a nicher, and a notable point is that, despite being a challenger, they have no intention of overtaking the leader.

New Japan Pro-Wrestling's entrance exam once had a "height of 180cm or taller" requirement. This was based on the philosophy that "if you aren't strong, you aren't a pro-wrestler." DRAGON GATE founder Ultimo Dragon, who only stands 170cm tall and had failed the New Japan entrance exam, did not set a height limit, opening the door to those who were not blessed with a large physique—people who otherwise would not have become pro-wrestlers. They then launched a visual strategy of "lean, tanned, and handsome," which was completely different from the traditional image of a pro-wrestler.
Unlike the old New Japan, which sold the silent "fight of men" to attract male customers, Dragon Gate pioneered a blue ocean of female fans through frivolous microphone performances and handsome wrestlers.They avoided fighting on the leader's turf (traditional strength) and built a unique segment with a different customer base, different match developments, and a different tempo.While New Japan develops heavy, long-term storylines, DRAGON GATE ran in the exact opposite direction with fast-paced stories and dizzying unit feuds. This is what is known in Lanchester strategy as "differentiation of weapons" and "victory in local warfare."

Dragon Gate's talent development involves opening a wrestling academy called "Toryumon," where new recruits learn Mexican Lucha-style wrestling before debuting in Mexico or Japan.
Dragon Gate's founder, Ultimo Dragon, is a great man who has also worked hard for friendship between Japan and Mexico, and this system is established thanks to his connections.
Also, Dragon Gate has a coach for microphone performances. They are not just pursuing strength.

Dragon Gate tours small gymnasiums across the country, with an average attendance of 562. The high frequency of 165 events per year increases the physical burden on the wrestlers. As a labor-intensive industry, the biggest fears are injuries to employees (wrestlers) and a decline in motivation. Improving the working environment can be said to be the biggest challenge.

There is also the problem of inter-departmental conflict. Dragon Gate's story development is fast, and friends and foes change constantly, sotrue emotions can sometimes get mixed in.
People who don't know pro-wrestling might not understand what this means, but to put it simply, they bring the conflicts from the ring into their private lives.
Therefore, rather than persona-like good guys and bad guys, genuine conflicts arise, which has sometimes led to the organization splitting.
Thinking in terms of organizational theory, the textbook solution would be to improve communication through messages from the leader or bottom-up group meetings, but it is a typical flat organization, and who one looks up to as a leader becomes a new source of conflict, eventually leading to a collapse. The disintegration of the organization led to a decline in motivation and talent outflow. Many also flowed into New Japan, which is a contributing factor to New Japan's model change to "talkative and handsome."

Due to splits and departures, there is a high turnover of people, and because of the personnel shortage, they are forced to debut inexperienced newcomers. Also, because there are many small wrestlers and they perform high-risk moves like aerial maneuvers, having many injured people is one of the challenges.

However, Dragon Gate is the one I watch the most. The reason isexcessive serviceThe reason is. When I was lining up to buy a limited-edition T-shirt for a certain wrestler, it sold out right in front of me. The person selling it at the shop was the wrestler himself (which is normal in Dragon Gate!). Perhaps feeling sorry for me standing there stunned, the wrestler slowly
took off the T-shirt he was wearing and sold it to me.That's too amazing! DragonGate!!The most fun I've ever had watching pro-wrestling was the "Iga Tournament" held in a small gymnasium. Dragon Gate doesn't cut corners even in local events.
By the way, my alarm clock is the Dragon Gate theme song "DRAGON STORM 2007."

The endless "dream chaser" just walks the road to tomorrow♪

Nicher 1: Big Japan Pro-Wrestling / FREEDOMS - The Sanctuary of Deathmatches

Big Japan Pro-Wrestling and FREEDOMS are organizations specialized in the extremely sharp field of "deathmatches." In a world where fluorescent lights, barbed wire, thumbtacks, and bamboo skewers—weapons unthinkable in normal pro-wrestling—fly about, they have formed their own enthusiastic community. They never aimed for mass appeal from the start.And they have no intention of doing so.

Big Japan Pro-Wrestling's 2024 attendance was 25,377 (2% share). Events at Korakuen Hall are mainly in the 300 to 600 scale, but the loyalty of these fans isabnormally high. Their own streaming service, "BJW CORE," is set at an exceptional price of 888 yen per month, building a direct billing model with core fans.

The qualification for a nicher is clear. It is a field that the leader can never touch. New Japan cannot constantly hold deathmatches with high injury risks if they want to run events stably. That is precisely why this field is allowed to be monopolized by nichers. They establish a strong position in a specific enthusiastic segment andmaximize the LTV (Life Time Value)of core fans.
When I watched it before, they were using a stapler as a weapon. Creative!
Seeing a razor blade stuck in someone's head and the commentary boothlaughing their heads off saying "It looks like an Ice Slugger lol"made me think something was broken. Recently, New Japan has also gained a talent named El Desperado and holds deathmatch events regularly. Despy is the best.

Nicher 2: DDT Pro-Wrestling - Sanshiro Takagi's Management Style

DDT Pro-Wrestling is an extremely unique existence even among nichers. Their 2024 attendance was 55,499 (6% share). While they have the power to draw a capacity crowd of 4,131 for their once-a-year big match at Ryogoku Kokugikan, they pursue their own unique worldview in small venues for daily events.

To talk about DDT, one must talk about the person who is the president, Sanshiro Takagi.

The foundation of Mr. Takagi's management philosophy is summarized in one point: "You can't win by doing the same thing as the big companies." While long-established organizations like New Japan Pro-Wrestling sell the "athletic" machismo, DDT called itself "cultural pro-wrestling." Street pro-wrestling, presentation pro-wrestling using PowerPoint, matches against dolls (Yoshihiko). They are seriously fooling around. They fight seriously while fooling around. They captured a subculture demographic and female fans completely different from traditional pro-wrestling fans, growing a small organization with annual sales of 5 million yen into one of the largest in the country.

In 2017, Mr. Takagi decided on an M&A with CyberAgent. Twenty years after its founding, it had grown to the point where it could hold events at Ryogoku Kokugikan and Saitama Super Arena, but there was a limit to what they could do on their own to increase the speed of growth further. Watching New Japan grow rapidly under the Bushiroad umbrella, he said he felt an impatience, wondering, "Is it okay to continue at this pace?"

The conditions he gave to the M&A brokerage firm were excellent. "The management of the other party does not necessarily have to be someone who likes pro-wrestling." If acquired by an owner who likes pro-wrestling, there is a risk that friction will arise due to "differences in the direction of the pro-wrestling they like," leading to the organization splitting. He sought a partner who would judge that "pro-wrestling is a business," not a pro-wrestling fan. This dryness is the true essence of Sanshiro Takagi as a manager.

What was prioritized over the acquisition price was that it be a company with high general recognition. Compared to long-established companies like New Japan and All Japan, DDT had a weaker brand. It was determined that joining a group of companies that everyone knows was essential for DDT's 'generalization.' In addition, Mr. Takagi secretly thought that a 'company that owns media' would be the best. AbemaTV, which is strong with the younger generation, and CyberAgent, which is skilled in internet business, were the perfect partners.

In a top-level meeting with CyberAgent President Susumu Fujita, instead of explaining DDT's features in words, he presented by showing videos of 'Street Wrestling' directly on his smartphone. The moment President Fujita reacted by saying 'That's very interesting,' he immediately made a direct plea: 'I want to grow the organization through synergy with CyberAgent.' After requesting mediation in July 2017, the final contract was signed by the end of August—a speedy resolution in about one month, which is unusual for a corporate acquisition.

When asked about the loneliness of letting go of his own company, Mr. Takagi immediately replied, 'There is no loneliness at all. There are limits to what we can do on our own. I only have expectations for the future.' A small-to-medium enterprise manager who can discard his own ego and attachments and make the best moves to maximize the organization and business.This person is a genius.

Mr. Takagi's analysis that 'most of the reasons why old pro-wrestling organizations went bankrupt were related to taxes' cannot be overlooked. While thoroughly doing the obvious thing of paying taxes properly, as soon as he saw the news about JR Central's 'Shinkansen Chartered Car Package,' he launched the 'Shinkansen Wrestling' project and concluded the negotiations. The coexistence of steadiness and breakthrough power. As a venture-type small-to-medium enterprise manager, there are few better role models than this.This person really is a genius.

His development ability is also high. It is not a characteristic development system, but rather developing people relatively by looking at them. He respects autonomy. He has developed worldwide star wrestlers such as Kenny Omega, Kota Ibushi, and KONOSUKE TAKESHITA.
Is he also good at personnel matters? This genius.

The semi-final of the 15th anniversary show at Ryogoku in 2012 was 'Danshoku Dino vs. Invisible Man'.An invisible man.The semi-final is Danshoku Dino,to put it clearly,doing it alone. It is surreal.
However, it gradually became clear that the true identity of this invisible man was”the embodiment of DDT, which was treated like an invisible man and ignored by everyone when it was launched”making it a moving match.
By the way, if I were to explain Danshoku Dino to someone who doesn't know him,”he is the Hiroshi Tanahashi of New Japan”you can think of it that way.It is an excellent explanation, if I do say so myself.

Follower: Pro-Wrestling NOAH—Has the Ark found a new world?

The attendance in 2024 was 64,312 (7% share). It rose from 7th place in 2020 (2% share) to 4th place. It belongs to CyberFight (the same operating company as DDT) under the CyberAgent umbrella, and has a strength in broadcasting linkage with ABEMA. Followers often have limited management resources, but NOAH has relatively strong financial power. As a matter of reality, it is theonly existencethat has the potential to replace New Japan.
It mobilized 5,088 people at the Nippon Budokan event on New Year's Day 2025, and 4,521 people at the Ryogoku Kokugikan in May. The ability to attract customers to big matches is steadily growing.

If I were to express NOAH's strategy in one word, it would be 'tracing the success experience of New Japan Pro-Wrestling'.

Profound match development, a route leaning toward strong style that pushes technical ability to the forefront, and an annual story structure that culminates in big matches at large venues. Similar wrestler images, similar storylines. It would be blunt to call it an imitation of the leader, but the essence of the follower strategy lies exactly here. While following the leader's success model, the target is slightly shifted. In NOAH's case, that shift is 'toward the younger generation'.

From 2021 to 2022, they partnered with brand consulting firm Bannister to carry out a rebranding that shifted the fan base, which had been skewed toward people in their 40s and 50s, to the younger generation. They used customer journey maps to redefine the target and placed the experiential value of 'superimposing oneself on the wrestler's way of life and making it food for tomorrow' at the core. Brand concept 'Stream Trek', tagline 'Gong your soul'. The story of the Ark sailing in search of a new world, and the definition of being an existence that rings the gong to the audience's soul.

The rebranding itself is strategically correct. However, the annual average attendance is 738, which is more than double the difference from the leader's 1,813. The operating company CyberFight is reported to have a final loss of 14 million yen for the fiscal year ending September 2025. The management foundation is still fragile.
It is hoped that it will become profitable content while CyberAgent is investing by utilizing its financial power. Followers are in a fairly secure position, but NOAH in particular is carrying a quite heavy task of fulfilling long-term plans while continuing to achieve short-term goals for each period to meet the trust of stakeholders.

By the way, the wrestler I have liked the most throughout history is NOAH's founder, 'Mitsuharu Misawa'. He died in a ring accident. With the sudden death of a genius of taking bumps, I realized the danger of pro-wrestling. They are doing a 'created story' while risking their lives.
They do it even if they are not praised or even if they are ridiculed. I respect them.

Threats in the overseas market—a world of a different order of magnitude, a world of different status

The domestic market is a market where the power balance is maintained with New Japan as the leader, and although it is small-scale, it is stable, but that is only if we are talking about domestic only. The existence of a powerful overseas market is putting the domestic pro-wrestling market into a critical state.

The global pro-wrestling market size is approximately 4.97 billion US dollars (approximately 750 billion yen) as of 2024. It is expected to expand to approximately 6.91 billion US dollars by 2029, with an average annual growth rate of 7.1%. What is driving the growth is the soaring value of broadcasting rights and streaming distribution rights, and the expansion of the fan base through digital marketing.

Reigning at the top of this global market is WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment). The 2025 revenue of the group parent company TKO Group Holdings is 1.794 billion US dollars (approximately 270 billion yen). The revenue structure is fundamentally different from domestic organizations. Media rights and distribution rights account for approximately 58.5% of the total, and live events account for approximately 24.1%. It is a structure where more than half of the revenue comes in even without putting customers in the venue.

In January 2025, WWE's flagship program 'RAW' began streaming on Netflix. The total viewing time in the first year was 525 million hours. It ranked in the top 10 of Netflix's global English TV category in 47 out of 52 weeks of the year. It was proven that the fact that pro-wrestling is 'the only live content that can provide stories without interruption throughout the year' has overwhelming value for the platform.

The revenue of New Japan Pro-Wrestling, the largest in Japan, is approximately 5 billion yen. WWE is approximately 270 billion yen. It is a 54-fold difference. A different order of magnitude. Two orders of magnitude, even.

However, the essence of this story is not just the difference in sales.

The social status of WWE wrestlers is far beyond what Japanese pro-wrestling fans imagine. In the United States, even if top-class Major League Baseball players are practicing before a game, if they hear that a WWE wrestler has arrived in the stands, they will reportedly leave their practice behind to go meet them and ask for a photo.During presidential electionsrequests for WWE wrestlers to give campaign speeches for candidates flood in. Since the number of votes for candidates supported by top-tier WWE stars reportedly increases visibly, their influence on the public and their social credibility are extraordinary.
In the United States, it is a form of content that ranks right after baseball, American football, basketball, and ice hockey. In other words, its social status itself is high. In some cases, they are figures who possess political power, much like Hollywood celebrities.

The salaries are also on a different scale. Although not publicly disclosed, it is said that the annual salary of a top-tier popular wrestler in Japan is10 million yenIn contrast, the minimum guaranteed annual salary for a wrestler promoted to the WWE is $250,000 (calculated at the rate as of November 26, 2023 (1 dollar = approx. 149 yen), it isapproximately 37 million yen). That is the minimum guaranteed wage for a rookie.

This dual gap in "salary" and "status" is the structural cause of the brain drain. Star wrestlers who have been nurtured in Japan over many years are offered astronomical salaries and celebrity status by WWE or AEW, and they head overseas. Shinsuke Nakamura, Konosuke Takeshita, Kazuchika Okada. Star wrestlers polished by the Japanese pro-wrestling world have flowed to America one after another.

The situation is the same for wrestlers in independent promotions. It is not just the salary; the very "title" of being a WWE wrestler is a dream and a goal. This structure creates a negative spiral for the Japanese pro-wrestling world: loss of star wrestlers → decline in drawing power → decrease in revenue → reduction in training funds → further outflow.Despite being a labor-intensive industry, the labor force continues to be sucked overseas. This is the biggest structural problem in the pro-wrestling market.

When the gap is this large, there is nothing more to be done. Even for New Japan Pro-Wrestling's countermeasures, the only way to keep them isloyalty to the companyin the current situation.
It goes without saying, but not only are they unable to pay equivalent salaries, there are also many opinions that mock it socially, such as "it's not a real fight," "it's fixed," or "it can't be done without a script." It tends to be viewed as lower than genuine martial artists.

Future Outlook: Domestic Market and Overseas Market

To foresee the future of the domestic pro-wrestling industry, it is necessary to consider two separate fronts.

Competition for Discretionary Time in the Domestic Entertainment Market

Pro-wrestling's competition is not just pro-wrestling.
There is a limit to consumers' discretionary time and disposable income. This finite pie is being fought over by martial arts, professional sports, music concerts, movies, games, and a vast array of digital content including Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and YouTube. The opponent the pro-wrestling industry is truly fighting is not the promotion standing in the next ring, but the infinite content on the other side of the smartphone.

Here, it is necessary to look calmly at the characteristics of the pro-wrestling industry. Live pro-wrestling events are premised on "physically traveling to a specific place at a specific date and time." This is "experiential consumption," the same as concerts or watching sports, and is fundamentally different from "content that can be consumed anytime, anywhere," like movies or games. The competitors for experiential consumption are other live entertainment that also requires physical movement—J.League, professional baseball, music festivals, 2.5D stage plays, and offline e-sports events.

What should be watched in particular is the competition with Japan's "oshi-katsu" (fan activity) economy. According to estimates by the Yano Research Institute, the Japanese otaku market (including idols, anime, manga, voice actors, etc.) has reacheda scale of 700 billion yen per year. The core fans of pro-wrestling are estimated at 550,000, with an average annual expenditure of about 23,000 yen. Converted to market size, it isabout 13 billion yen, which is only a few dozen times smaller than the idol or anime markets. While having the same "oshi" structure, the size of the pie is completely different.

What is even more troublesome is that there is a physical limit to the number of subscriptions a consumer can join. NJPW WORLD, WRESTLE UNIVERSE, DRAGONGATE NETWORK, BJW CORE. Each promotion has made its own subscription its main business model, but how many services at 1,000 to 1,600 yen per month will consumers sign up for simultaneously? Netflix, Spotify, Amazon Prime, Disney+, DAZN—the "shelves" for monthly billing are already filling up. Since the number of people choosing content is the number of people in that market, as far as subscriptions are concerned, they are being forced to fight for market share in the narrow pro-wrestling market.

Bushiroad's financial results for the fiscal year ending June 2025 clearly show this structure. Sales in the sports business (New Japan Pro-Wrestling and Stardom) were 6.324 billion yen (down 3.9% from the previous year), and operating profit was 173 million yen (down 60.8% from the same). The rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic has run its course, and it has reached a plateau. This is not a problem unique to pro-wrestling, but a common challenge faced by all experiential consumption-type entertainment: "landing at cruising speed after a rebound."

The key to surviving on this front is cooperation with mega-platformers. "ABEMA de Wrestle Universe" in cooperation with ABEMA shows that direction. While enclosing core fans on their own platform, they secure an entrance for light fans by utilizing the drawing power of mega-platformers. "Depth" through in-house distribution, and "breadth" through mega-platformers. The design precision of this two-layer structure will determine the victory or defeat on the domestic front.
Theoretically that is the case, but NOAH, which is currently practicing it, is struggling. In the end, it is necessary to create more attractive topics than other entertainment content.

Competition with Overseas Peers (WWE/AEW)

This is even more serious. As mentioned above, the brain drain due to the dual gap in salary and social status is a common challenge for the entire industry. Leaders, challengers, and niche players are all equally exposed.
WWE's sales are 54 times that of New Japan. Moreover, 58.5% of their revenue is from media rights, and abusiness model that does not depend on live eventshas been established.

However, there is one important realization here. There is absolutely no need for the domestic pro-wrestling industry to imitate the WWE. The WWE's business model can only be established with astronomical capital and a huge market in the English-speaking world. If a domestic promotion with inferior capital tries to stand on the same playing field, it means falling into the follower's trap.

Directly reach niche fans overseas through digital distribution with the strengths unique to Japanese pro-wrestling.
So, what isthe strength of Japanese pro-wrestling?
Wrestlers who are popular with overseas pro-wrestling fans, who are far more numerous than in Japan, are Minoru Suzuki, Tomohiro Ishii, and Katsuyori Shibata. They have a very easy-to-understand commonality. "Rugged fight style," "strength of spirit," "no bad matches," "actions speak louder than words"... The fact that they are popular overseas is a big hint. Perhaps, coming full circle, the "Strong Style" advocated by Antonio Inoki is making a comeback in the Reiwa era.
Nurture wrestlers with such personas and deliver them to the world in the vessel of a subscription.
Alternatively, even if they flow overseas, build a business model where you nurture wrestlers and sell them overseas, like the J.League in soccer, by charging high transfer fees.
If you can establish it as a sales channel and build a good relationship, rather than just being robbed by bundles of cash like now, domestic fans can continue to watch the transferred wrestlers via subscription, and the damage to brand power can be kept to a minimum.

Conclusion

When viewed through the framework of Kotler's competitive position strategies, the market segmentation of the professional wrestling industry was surprisingly faithful to theory.
New Japan Pro-Wrestling leads the market as the leader, neutralizing the differentiation of other organizations through assimilation strategies.
DRAGON GATE, as a challenger, adds depth to the industry with a strategy different from the leader.
Big Japan Pro-Wrestling and DDT inhabit niches using completely different methodologies. NOAH, as a follower, follows the leader's successful model while quietly waiting for an opportunity to rise.

And outside of that domestic equilibrium, there exists a monster market with 54 times the revenue. While it is a significant threat, the current existence of subscriptions makes it possible to capture overseas customers.
For that, "Showa-era Pro-Wrestling," which was discarded during the slump of the 2000s, might become the keyword.

This has become the longest piece yet.
Thank you for reading until the end. Clicking the "Like" button will encourage me when choosing the theme for the next article. Please also follow me.

Takashi Honami, Small and Medium Enterprise Management Consultant | Honami Management Support Lab hona1041@gmail.com