Japanese Stocks on July 29 | SOX down 4.5%, will semiconductor stocks move from 'across-the-board selling' to selective buying?
While the overall U.S. stock market remains resilient, semiconductor stocks continue to decline. Today, rather than the rebound width of the Nikkei 225, the focus is on whether semiconductor stocks will stop falling and if the TOPIX's relative strength will continue.
Overseas markets last night
In the U.S. market on July 28, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 537.24 points to 52,747.32, and the S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 7,428.78.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq fell 0.22% to 24,876.91, and the SOX index dropped 4.5%. Concerns are rising regarding the profitability of AI capital expenditure and competition with Chinese semiconductor companies.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.604%. WTI crude oil dropped to $79.26, and Brent crude fell to $84.09. The dollar-yen exchange rate remains in a historically weak yen range, centered around the 163 yen level.
Key factors for today
1. Continued selling of semiconductor stocks
Following a 2.2% decline the previous day, the SOX index fell 4.5% on the 28th.
For Japanese stocks, the focus is on whether selling will continue in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, memory, electronic components, and AI data center-related stocks.
2. Capital rotation is underway in the stock market
While semiconductor stocks fell, companies like Boeing and Coca-Cola rose in the U.S., and the number of advancing stocks exceeded the number of declining stocks.
This can be viewed not as a collapse of the entire market, but as a rotation of funds from AI and semiconductors into consumer staples and cyclical stocks.
3. U.S. and Japanese monetary policy and major earnings
The Bank of Japan will hold its Monetary Policy Meeting from July 29 to 30. In the U.S., with the FOMC results announcement approaching, attention is focused on whether there will be a rate hike and the future policy stance.
Today, domestic companies such as Socionext, Makita, and NEC are scheduled to announce earnings. Microsoft will announce its earnings after the U.S. market closes.
Sectors and themes to watch
Caution: Semiconductor manufacturing equipment, memory, electronic components, AI data center-related
Focus: Domestic demand, food, transportation, telecommunications, finance
On July 28, the Nikkei 225 fell 3.95% to 62,364.92 yen. The TOPIX fell approximately 2.52%, and the Growth 250 index dropped to 676.57. Pay attention to the gap between the Nikkei 225, which has a high dependency on semiconductor stocks, and the TOPIX, which represents the broader market.
Conditions to check today
Will semiconductor stocks continue to hit new lows after the opening?
Can the TOPIX maintain its strength relative to the Nikkei 225?
Will the rebound in semiconductor stocks be accompanied by trading volume?
Conditions for Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish Outlooks
Bullish: Semiconductor stocks do not hit new lows, and both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 rebound.
Neutral: Even if the Nikkei 225 remains weak, capital continues to rotate into domestic demand, financial, and transportation stocks.
Bearish: Semiconductor stocks experience another sharp decline, and the Nikkei 225 falls below the previous day's low.
July 29 Japanese Stocks
Today's Nikkei 225
SOX Index Decline
Semiconductor Stock Plunge
FOMC Japanese Stocks
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This article organizes the market environment based on publicly available information and does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific financial products or stocks. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.
