Fact > 0.0001: Verifying the "One in a Ten Thousand" Chance

In the world of insurance, the term "one in a ten thousand" (man-ga-ichi) is often used. It is a kind of euphemism to avoid using the word "death." But is the actual probability really "one in a ten thousand"? I checked the data to find out.

▶ Verifying "One in a Ten Thousand"

When talking about life insurance, we often use the term "one in a ten thousand". When I was selling insurance, I used it often too. Instead of saying "death" or "passing away," I would use phrases like "if something happens, one in a ten thousand." It is a euphemism. It expresses the probability of passing away as "1 in 10,000." So, what is the actual probability?

Please look at the table below. The figures are broken down by age.

The left side of the table shows the mortality rate per 1,000 people (Source: 2022 Abridged Life Table). According to this data, between the ages of 30 and 34, 2.87 men and 1.72 women pass away.

Even for women, 1.7 out of 1,000 people pass away. Since it is 1.7/1,000, in terms of probability, it is a much larger number than "one in a ten thousand." And as you get older, the mortality rate increases. Out of 1,000 men between the ages of 45 and 49, about 9 pass away. That is almost 1 in 100, so it is "one in a hundred."

▶ What if a doctor told you this?

When you are healthy, death feels like someone else's problem. However, in reality, the number is much larger than "one in a ten thousand."

How do you feel when you see a probability of 1 in 100? You might feel it is not that high of a probability. For example, suppose your doctor said this to you:

"There is a 1% chance that you will pass away within five years."

Wouldn't that scare you quite a bit? I was recently diagnosed with an illness, and when I was told there was a 1% chance per year of it manifesting, I was quite scared. I think 1% is a probability that feels quite real.

▶ What is the probability of being unable to work?

Now, the right side of the table shows data regarding the "Injury and Sickness Allowance." The "Injury and Sickness Allowance" is a system where the health insurance system covers a portion of your salary when you are unable to work.

The "Injury and Sickness Allowance" can be received when you are unable to work for four days or more. In the example in the table, 15.22 people per 1,000 received the allowance between the ages of 30 and 34 (Source: 2022 Japan Health Insurance Association / Cash Benefit Recipient Status Survey). Although not shown in the table, the average for all ages is 19.28 days of allowance received per person.

Due to the impact of COVID-19, the number of people receiving it has increased. Even taking that into account, the figure of about 15 people per 1,000, or 1.5 per 100, feels quite high. Regarding the Injury and Sickness Allowance, the probability does not increase much as you get older, but it is about a 1% probability every five years.

For healthy people, it is difficult to imagine a situation where they cannot work. However, besides illness and accidents, there are also cases where people cannot work for mental health reasons. I think it is a probability that should never be ignored.

Knowing these probabilities, it is necessary to think carefully about whether or not to use insurance. Perhaps it is better to stop using the term "one in a ten thousand" altogether.