A Quick Break: What Happened at COP29 After All?

My heart is Gen Z! My body is a Showa-era person over 60! I am a grandpa who is a Gen Z supporter!?

Well, the goal of the Paris Agreement and the duty of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to somehow keep the temperature rise from pre-industrial levels within 1.5 degrees by the 22nd century through global cooperation.

The 29th Conference of the Parties, COP29, was held in Azerbaijan, but it received less attention than is usual these days. However, the result of the conference, which was extended and concluded on the 24th with an agreement to set a climate finance contribution target of $300 billion (approximately 45 trillion yen) per year by 2035, will likely be reported quite extensively.

Although there are voices of criticism from developing countries regarding the $45 trillion annual climate fund, my honest impression is that it is impressive they reached an agreement at all. I am already worried about what Japan will do when we cannot afford to pay.

This time, it was a COP held after Mr. Trump was elected president, and since it was foreseen that the U.S. would withdraw from the Paris Agreement as Mr. Trump had promised, the reporting lacked excitement from the start.

Climate finance, which is the contribution of funds to support developing countries, was said to be the main theme of this 'Finance COP,' so there was an atmosphere that it would be impossible to agree on future funding contributions while the U.S. was withdrawing.

The Paris Agreement is characterized by its attempt to learn from the lessons of the Kyoto Protocol and involve not only developed countries but also developing countries in efforts to reduce GHG emissions.

Developing countries feel toward developed countries that 'You guys burned fossil fuels to develop your economies, so don't tell us not to burn fossil fuels as we develop our economies now; give us a break.' However, there is a dilemma that GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reductions cannot proceed without the cooperation of developing countries.

The compromise for that was climate finance.

NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) is a promise by each country where all countries cooperate to ensure that the Earth in the 22nd century keeps temperature rise below 2°C, and ideally within 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels, and submit ambitious commitments to the UN.

For developed countries, such as Japan, the NDC is a single annual GHG emission reduction target to be achieved by 2030, which is essentially an emission cap target. Japan has submitted a target of 760 million tons (t-CO2e), a 46% reduction from 2013 levels.

This is an international commitment that must be achieved and is a promise that must be kept.

However, developing countries must develop their economies from now on, so it is assumed that demand for electricity and power (heat) will increase. Therefore, they have submitted two-tiered targets: unconditional reduction targets and conditional targets to the UN against BaU emissions (Business as Usual: GHG emission projections for 2030 based on the current power source and fuel mix).

For example, in the case of Indonesia, which is experiencing remarkable economic development, they have submitted their conditional and unconditional NDCs as follows.

(1) Unconditional NDC
・1st NDC: 29% reduction target by 2030 => In 2022, target raised to 31.89% reduction by 2030
(2) Conditional NDC
・1st NDC: 41% reduction target by 2030 => In 2022, target raised to 43.2% reduction by 2030

In other words, the unconditional NDC is based on self-help efforts, and this conditional NDC is a conditional target that is possible if climate finance is provided.

Developed countries worked toward the goal of contributing $100 billion (15 trillion yen) annually as climate finance by 2020, and as a result, they finally exceeded $100 billion in 2022. Japan has contributed $22.4 billion over the two years of 2021 and 2022. (This means it has undertaken approximately 11.2% of the global contribution target.)

When COP29 began, there was talk of $1 trillion (150 trillion yen) annually. This is a figure that, even if Japan wanted to cooperate, is at a level where we simply cannot afford it. It is no longer a level of commitment that can be agreed to irresponsibly, especially with the U.S. stepping away.

Even the agreed-upon climate finance of $300 billion/year (45 trillion yen) is a staggering amount. If Japan were to cover its share without the U.S., it would amount to 5–6 trillion yen per year. That would wipe out funding for free high school education and subsidies for achieving our own domestic goals.

Furthermore, developed countries are being pressured to make their targets even more ambitious.

In the graph above, the red portion represents the projected range of GHG emission reductions if developing countries implement measures using climate finance, while the gray area represents the range of unconditional NDCs.

2°C or below 1.5°CThe pathways (blue and green) to limit temperature rise are quite far off, aren't they? In short, it's a situation where we should have acted sooner. If we had, this astronomical climate finance might not have been necessary, and now there is a sense that it might already be impossible.

For the time being, we have no choice but to hope that individual U.S. states will maintain decarbonization policies unlike the federal government, and that global companies—especially those that define their purpose not just by profit but by solving social issues as part of their corporate identity—will proactively advance decarbonization while enhancing their competitiveness.

☆☆☆
(Gratitude)

▼ Teacher Kishakoku introduced Gee-Gee's articles in their 'Social Studies' series, 'Real World Teacher,' and 'You are the Teacher' at 12:00 PM every day. Thank you, Teacher Kishakoku. A major change occurred as a result of young people going to the polls. If the ruling party, which lost its majority, pursues active fiscal policy not by breaking the '1.03 million yen wall' or deregulation, but by expanding handouts and distributing money, then there was no point in the minority parties gaining ground. It is important what you do with active fiscal policy; strengthening handouts will only disappoint the youth.

▼ I am using Nana-san's cute illustrations for the header images of the 'Gee-Gee's Preparation' series. Thank you, Nana-san.

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