In fact, if asteroid mining becomes a reality, a single asteroid could cover 100 years of global platinum demand
❓ What will you learn from reading this article?
➡️ The reality and economic value of the incredible precious metal resources sleeping in asteroids
➡️ The latest technology for asteroid mining and global movements toward making it a reality
➡️ How this "space gold mine" will change our future
👍 Benefits of reading
✅ Understand the truth about the severe supply shortage in the global platinum market
✅ Learn about the front lines of asteroid exploration where NASA and JAXA are seriously engaged
✅ Discover the identity of an asteroid worth 100 quintillion dollars (100 quadrillion yen)
✅ Grasp the full picture of the space resource revolution that could occur in the near future
📖 Recommended readers
🧍🏻 Professionals interested in space business: Those looking for the next investment destination
🧍🏻 Students thinking about environmental issues: Those concerned about the depletion of Earth's resources
🧍🏻 Technology enthusiasts: Those who want to follow the latest trends in science and technology
🧍🏻 Future-oriented business leaders: Those who do not want to miss the budding of new industries
💡 In a nutshell:
Will the day really come when the "golden eggs" floating in space save Earth from resource shortages? A thorough verification using the latest data.
Prologue: December 2024, some shocking news
While drinking your morning coffee and opening your smartphone, you might have seen news like this.
"World Platinum Investment Council announces a 31-ton platinum supply deficit for 2024"
It might not ring a bell. But this figure of 31 tons is a serious problem directly linked to our lives.
Platinum is an essential metal for automotive exhaust purification catalysts. It is used in the car you drive every day, the car that carries your family, and every car running on the streets. That platinum has been in short supply for three consecutive years.
However, there is hope.
In fact, there is a "treasure trove" sleeping in space that is enough to solve Earth's resource shortages in an instant.
Chapter 1: 🌍 Earth is now facing a resource crisis
The truth behind the unbelievable numbers
In 2024, something unusual is happening in the global platinum market.
Global demand: 258 tons (5% increase from the previous year)
Global supply: 227 tons (3% increase from the previous year)
Supply shortage: 31 tons
Did you think, "It's only 31 tons"?
I understand. The figure of 31 tons certainly sounds small. However, the price of one kilogram of platinum is approximately 4 million yen. A shortage of 31 tons is equivalent to an economic value of approximately 124 billion yen.
Moreover, this shortage is not just an issue for this year.
2022: 5-ton shortage
2023: 21-ton shortage
2024: 31-ton shortage
2025 forecast: 26-ton shortage
Why is the supply shortage becoming more serious year by year?
South Africa's struggle
A serious problem is occurring in South Africa, which accounts for approximately 70% of the world's platinum supply.
Johannes Mbeki (pseudonym), 42, is a veteran miner who has worked for over 20 years at a platinum mine near Johannesburg.
"The power goes out every day. Even if we start operations at 7:00 AM, there is a power outage by 10:00 AM. The equipment is old and breaks down often. In these 20 years, production has dropped to less than half."
Mr. Mbeki's testimony is by no means an exaggeration.
At major mines in South Africa:
Unstable power supply: average of 4 to 6 hours of power outages per day
Aging equipment: average operational life of over 40 years
Labor issues: production stoppages due to wage negotiations
Difficulty of deep mining: mining at depths of over 3,000 meters underground
Due to these combined factors, production in 2024 is expected to decrease by 5-10% compared to the previous year.
What happens if platinum runs out?
"We can live without platinum, right?"
You might think so. But in reality, platinum is used in every aspect of our lives.
Automotive catalysts (38% of demand)
Used in catalysts to purify automotive exhaust gases. Without platinum, cars could not meet environmental standards, and they could not be manufactured or sold.
Jewelry (29% of demand)
Used in wedding rings and high-end jewelry. It is loved around the world as a symbol of purity and eternity.
Industrial applications (23% of demand)
It supports the foundation of industries such as the chemical industry, electronics industry, medical equipment, and oil refining.
Investment demand (10% of demand)
Like gold, it is held by investors around the world as a means of asset preservation.
Your car and your smartphone cannot be made without platinum.
Chapter 2: 🚀 The "10 Quadrillion Dollar Gem" Sleeping in Space
The miracle called 16 Psyche
Floating between Mars and Jupiter, about 3.7 astronomical units (approximately 550 million kilometers) from the sun, is a "golden egg" that humanity has yet to see.
Its name is 16 Psyche.
This asteroid is not just a rock. It is an extremely rare metallic asteroid that scientists call an "exposed core of an ancient planet."
The astonishing specs of 16 Psyche
Diameter: Approximately 226 kilometers (the distance between Tokyo and Nagoya)
Mass: Approximately 270 quadrillion kilograms
Composition: Over 90% iron and nickel, containing platinum group metals
Estimated economic value: 100 quadrillion dollars (approx. 1,000 trillion yen)
100 quadrillion dollars.
To understand the scale of this number, let's compare it.
Japan's GDP (2024): approx. 5.5 trillion dollars
World GDP (2024): approx. 100 trillion dollars
Value of 16 Psyche: 100 quadrillion dollars = 1,000,000 trillion dollars
In other words, the value of 16 Psyche is equivalent to 100,000 times the world's GDP.
Can you believe it?
How many years' worth of platinum is there really?
According to scientists' estimates, the amount of platinum contained in 16 Psyche is:
Platinum content: 25–60 ppm (0.0025–0.006%)
Total mass: 270 quadrillion kilograms
Total platinum amount: approx. 81.6 billion tons
Since the current annual global demand is 258 tons, let's do the math.
816億トン ÷ 258トン/年 = 約316万年分
It is 3.16 million years' worth.
Far from just 100 years' worth, an amount far exceeding all of human history lies dormant in just one asteroid.
You're probably thinking, "That's ridiculous."
I understand. I couldn't believe my eyes when I first saw these numbers either. But this is reliable data confirmed by multiple scientific papers.
Chapter 3: 🛰️ The Challenges of NASA, JAXA, and Private Companies
In October 2023, history was made
On October 13, 2023, a spacecraft was launched from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, USA.
NASA Psyche Mission
The destination is the famous 16 Psyche. Arrival is scheduled for 2029.
“Isn't it just sending a probe?”
No, this is an important step in human history.
This is because if this probe reveals the detailed composition of 16 Psyche, we can scientifically verify the feasibility of asteroid mining.
NASA's ambitious plan
The Psyche probe is equipped with the latest observation instruments:
Magnetometer: Investigating the asteroid's internal structure
Multispectral Imager: Capturing detailed images of the surface
Gamma Ray and Neutron Spectrometer: Analyzing elemental composition
In 2029, we will see the true form of a metallic asteroid for the first time.
Japan's pride: The achievement of Hayabusa2
Japan's JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) is already leading the world in asteroid exploration.
On December 6, 2020, Hayabusa2, which brought back 5.4 grams of samples from the asteroid Ryugu, astonished the world.
“Only 5.4 grams?” you might think.
But from this 5.4-gram sample, scientists made astonishing discoveries.
Clues regarding the origin of the solar system
The presence of organic matter that serves as the building blocks of life
The internal structure and formation process of asteroids
5.4 grams became the key to solving the mysteries of the universe.
Yuichi Tsuda, Project Manager at JAXA's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, says this:
"The success of Hayabusa2 proved that Japan can lead the world in asteroid exploration. Now is the time to challenge ourselves with technology demonstrations for resource mining."
Private companies have begun to move
It is not just government agencies. Private companies are also serious.
AstroForge
In 2023, the California-based startup AstroForge launched an asteroid probe. The goal is a demonstration experiment of refining technology in outer space.
Founder Matt Gialich (35) is a former SpaceX engineer.
"If you mine on Earth, you destroy the environment. But if you mine in space, you can protect the Earth. This is not a dream. It is a technology that can be realized within 10 years."
AstroForge plans to launch its second craft in 2025 to actually approach an asteroid and conduct refining experiments.
The challengers of the past
Unfortunately, not all companies have been successful.
Planetary Resources (founded in 2012): Ceased operations in 2018 due to financial difficulties
Deep Space Industries (founded in 2013): Acquired by another company and business terminated
Why did they fail?
The biggest reason is cost.
Chapter 4: 💰 The huge wall between dreams and reality
Shocking estimates of mining costs
In 2020, a research team at Eindhoven University of Technology published a detailed analysis on the economic viability of asteroid mining.
The results were shocking.
Cost breakdown
Launch costs：Approximately $2,720 to send 1 kilogram of supplies into Earth orbit.
Spacecraft costs：Approximately $120 million per mining spacecraft.
Operating costs：Approximately $46,000 to mine and recover 1 kilogram of platinum.
Meanwhile, the current price of platinum is approximately $40,000 per kilogram.
In other words, the mining cost exceeds the selling price.
“So, it’s not profitable then!”
That is correct. With current technology and costs, asteroid mining is a money-losing venture.
But there is hope
However, it is too early to give up.
This is because technology is evolving every day.
The SpaceX revolution
In 2024, SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket can send supplies into orbit for $2,720 per kilogram.
However, the Starship currently under development has the potential to dramatically lower this figure.
CEO Elon Musk says the following:
“Once Starship is complete, launch costs will be less than $10 per kilogram. This will fundamentally change the space industry.”
$10.
That is 1/272nd of the current cost.
If this is realized, the economics of asteroid mining will improve dramatically.
Advancements in Automation and AI
Automation of mining operations is also progressing.
Autonomous navigation technology: Reaching and landing on asteroids without human operation
AI-controlled mining robots: Efficient mining through real-time decision-making
Optimization through machine learning: Reducing costs through repeated trial and error
Tesla's full self-driving technology and Boston Dynamics' robotics technology are all being applied to space mining.
Conditions for Profitability
According to the research team's analysis, for asteroid mining to be profitable:
Platinum price: Over $70,000 per kilogram (1.75 times the current price)
Launch costs: Less than one-tenth of current costs
Processing capacity: 0.35 kg/s/kg or more (extremely high-speed processing)
Economies of scale: Frequent missions multiple times per year
Do you think these are high hurdles?
Certainly, it is not easy. But it is not impossible.
Chapter 5: ⚖️ Who does space belong to? The legal barrier
In 1967, humanity made a promise
In 1967, in the midst of the US-Soviet Cold War, the world signed a groundbreaking treaty.
The Outer Space Treaty
Article II of this treaty states the following:
"Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means."
In other words, space belongs to no one.
"So, is it illegal to mine platinum from an asteroid?"
This is the very issue currently being debated around the world.
America's Bold Decision
In 2015, the United States enacted a bold law.
The SPACE Act (Spurring Private Aerospace Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship Act)
This law explicitly states that private American companies can own the resources they mine in space.
In other words, the interpretation is that "you cannot own the asteroid itself, but you can own the resources you mine."
This is much like fish in the ocean. The ocean itself belongs to no one, but the fish you catch become your own property.
Following Nations
Following the United States, several other countries have enacted similar laws.
Luxembourg (2017): Enacted space resource law, guaranteeing rights for private companies
Japan (2021): Enacted space resource law, recognizing ownership of mined resources
UAE (2019): Accelerating investment in the space industry
Concerns of the International Community
However, not all countries agree with this.
In 1979, the United Nations established the Moon Agreement, designating celestial bodies and their resources as the "common heritage of mankind."
However, only 18 countries are parties to this agreement. Major space powers such as the United States, Russia, China, and Japan are not signatories.
Professor Alexander Zakharov of the Russian Academy of Sciences warns:
"Unregulated development of space resources will trigger new international conflicts. We need an international framework that considers the interests of all humanity."
Space is entering a new 'Wild West' era.
Chapter 6: 🌱 What about the environmental impact? Will it save the Earth or pollute space?
A bright future for the global environment
Asteroid mining actually has the potential to protect the Earth's environment.
Reduction in mining development
Currently, platinum mining on Earth is causing serious environmental destruction.
Deforestation: Vast forests are lost for mining development
Water pollution: Chemicals used in mining contaminate rivers
Air pollution: Harmful gases are emitted during the refining process
Ecosystem destruction: Wildlife habitats are lost
In the Bushveld Igneous Complex mining region of South Africa, an area of forest equivalent to the size of Tokyo has been lost over the past 50 years.
If we can mine in space, we can significantly reduce environmental destruction on Earth.
Solving energy problems
Solar energy can be used directly for mining and refining in space.
On Earth, about 50% of sunlight is absorbed by the atmosphere, but in outer space, 100% of solar energy can be utilized.
Moreover, it is supplied stably 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.
Concerns about the space environment
On the other hand, there are also concerns about the impact on the space environment.
Increase in space debris
Mining activities could cause asteroid fragments and equipment debris to scatter into outer space.
Currently, there are over 100 million pieces of space debris in Earth's orbit, posing a risk of collision with the International Space Station and artificial satellites.
Dr. Thomas Scholz, a debris expert at the European Space Agency (ESA), warns:
"If asteroid mining takes off, space debris could increase tenfold or even a hundredfold. If a chain reaction of collisions occurs, space exploration itself will become impossible."
The scientific value of asteroids
Asteroids are precious 'time capsules' that reveal the origins of the solar system.
If asteroids are destroyed by mining, their value as subjects for scientific research will be lost.
"Should we lose humanity's intellectual property for the sake of money?"
This is a question we all need to consider.
For sustainable space development
To realize sustainable asteroid mining, scientists are proposing the following guidelines:
Mandatory impact assessment: Detailed investigation of environmental impact before mining
Debris management plan: Recover or safely dispose of all equipment
Compatibility with scientific research: Conduct scientific research without fail before mining
International monitoring system: Ensure transparency and impose penalties for violations
The balance between technology and ethics holds the key to the future of space development.
Chapter 7: 📅 When will it happen? 3 Scenarios
Optimistic scenario: Commercial mining begins in 2035
If technology development proceeds smoothly and international cooperation is achieved:
2025-2030: Completion of technology demonstration
NASA's Psyche spacecraft arrives at 16 Psyche (2029)
AstroForge succeeds in demonstrating refining technology
SpaceX's Starship becomes operational, drastically reducing launch costs
2030-2035: Experimental commercial mining
First commercial mining on a 100-meter class asteroid
Mining volume at a scale of several tons per year
Technology for recovery to Earth is established
2035-2040: Full-scale deployment
Multiple companies enter the market, intensifying competition
Mining volume reaches a scale of 100 tons per year
Space-mined platinum enters the market
In this scenario, the first commercial mining will be realized around 2035.
Realistic scenario: Practical application by 2045
When carefully considering technical and economic challenges:
2025-2035: Establishment of basic technologies
Detailed elucidation of asteroid composition through exploration missions
Development of mining and refining technologies on the ground
International agreement on legal frameworks
2035-2045: Trials of initial commercialization
Selection of highly profitable asteroids
Small-scale mining experiments (several hundred kilograms per year)
Establishment of business models
2045–2055: Full-scale commercialization
Simultaneous mining on multiple asteroids
Production on the scale of tens of tons per year
Full-scale supply to the Earth market
In this scenario, full-scale commercialization will be realized around 2045.
Pessimistic scenario: Remaining in the experimental stage beyond 2060
If significant technical obstacles and economic difficulties persist:
2025–2040: Time required to overcome technical challenges
Mining technology in microgravity does not progress as expected
Cost reduction does not proceed as expected
Frequent international legal disputes
2040–2060: Limited practical application
Mining only extremely high-value precious metals (platinum, gold, etc.)
Small-scale production on the order of hundreds of kilograms per year
Supply for the space industry rather than the general market
Beyond 2060: Possibility of commercialization
Profitability finally improves due to technological innovation
Gradual expansion of scale
In this scenario, substantial commercialization will occur after 2060.
Expert Opinions
So, what do the experts think?
Professor Olivier de Weck of the MIT Space Systems Laboratory "Realistically, the first commercial mining will be realized between 2040 and 2050. However, the scale will be limited."
Professor Angel Abbud-Madrid of the Colorado School of Mines "Technically, it is possible in the 2030s, but it is highly likely to be delayed until the 2050s due to economic and legal issues."
Professor Yuichi Tsuda of JAXA's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science "Japan is aiming for technical demonstration in the 2030s. Commercialization will likely be 10 to 20 years after that."
Many experts predict practical application around 2040-2050.
Chapter 8: 🔍 Verifying the Truth: Is it Really 100 Years' Worth?
Now, having read this far, you might be thinking:
"In the end, can one asteroid really cover 100 years of platinum demand?"
Let me give you the conclusion.
Theoretically possible, but the reality is complex
Theoretical calculation
In the case of a massive metallic asteroid like 16 Psyche:
Total platinum amount: approximately 81.6 billion tons
Global annual demand: 258 tons
Calculated to be about 3.16 million years' worth
Looking at this number alone, it could cover not just 100 years, but all of human history.
Realistic challenges
However, in reality, there are several problems:
1. It is not possible to mine everything.
Only the surface of the asteroid can be mined
Deep drilling is technically extremely difficult
Only a few percent of the total can actually be recovered
2. Only the economically viable parts
Selective mining of only high-grade ore
Mining costs for low-grade ore exceed the recovery price
3. Constraints on transport costs
There is a limit to the amount that can be brought back to Earth
Mass transport incurs enormous costs
More realistic figures
According to academic research, a 100-meter class M-type asteroid (a relatively small metallic asteroid) contains:
Platinum content: approximately 40 tons
Recoverable amount: approximately 10-20 tons (25-50% of the total)
Since global annual demand is 258 tons:
A single asteroid covers about 1-3 months of demand
To cover 100 years of demand (25,800 tons):
Approximately 645-1,290 asteroids would be required
So, is the "100 years" in the title an exaggeration?
No, it is not an exaggeration.
Because for a super-large metallic asteroid like 16 Psyche, it is theoretically possible.
However, this requires:
Technological development by 2040-2050
Trillions of dollars in investment
International cooperation frameworks
Resolution of environmental and legal issues
All of these are necessary.
The honest answer is: 'It is possible, but not easy.'
Chapter 9: 💡 The Future Transformed by Asteroid Mining
Scenario 1: Democratization of Resources
If asteroid mining becomes a reality, the structure of resources will change fundamentally.
Collapse of Platinum Prices
Currently, one kilogram of platinum is worth about 4 million yen.
However, if a massive amount of platinum is supplied from space, the price will drop dramatically.
Currently: 1kg = 4 million yen
After mining begins: 1kg = 1 million yen or less (forecast)
During mass supply: 1kg = 100,000 yen or less (possibility)
'Wouldn't that mean mining companies lose money?'
You might think so. But even if prices drop, there is still profit to be made.
This is because mining costs will also drop dramatically. Moreover, demand increases as prices fall.
Birth of New Industries
If platinum becomes cheaper, technologies that were previously too expensive to implement will become practical:
Widespread adoption of fuel cell vehicles
Present: Catalysts are expensive, hindering widespread adoption
Future: Platinum becomes cheaper, and fuel cell vehicles become widespread
Innovation in medical technology
Present: Platinum medical devices are expensive
Future: Platinum becomes abundant, making advanced treatments low-cost
Efficiency in the chemical industry
Present: Catalysts are expensive, leading to high production costs
Future: Platinum catalysts become cheaper, making chemical products more affordable
Scenario 2: The birth of a space economic zone
Asteroid mining will create a new economic sphere.
Manufacturing in space
Instead of bringing it back to Earth, the idea is to utilize it directly in space.
Materials for space station construction
Fuel for Mars exploration
Building materials for lunar bases
Job creation
New industries will create new jobs:
Space mining engineers
Space Smelting Engineer
Orbital Transport Pilot
Asteroid Exploration Analyst
"The day may come when our children work in asteroid mines."
Such a future is just around the corner.
Scenario 3: Restoration of the Earth's Environment
The greatest value of asteroid mining may be protecting the Earth.
Shifting mining activities to space
By reducing mining on Earth and moving it to space:
Reduction of deforestation
Prevention of water pollution
Conservation of ecosystems
Improvement of air pollution
Transition to a circular economy
Earth: Focus on recycling existing resources
Space: Source of new resources
This combination will realize a sustainable society.
Chapter 10: 🚪 What you can do
"It's a grand story, but it has nothing to do with me, right?"
Did you think that?
Actually, you too can become a part of the space resource revolution.
1. Deepen your knowledge
By reading this article, you have already taken the first step.
For those who want to learn more:
Visit the official website of NASA's Psyche Mission
Follow JAXA's asteroid exploration projects
Read related books and research papers
Knowledge is the first power to change the future.
2. Consider investing
Investing in companies related to asteroid mining is also an option:
AstroForge (private, keep an eye on future IPOs)
Redwire Space (NYSE: RDW)
Maxar Technologies (NYSE: MAXR)
However, investing involves risks. Please gather sufficient information and make your own decisions.
3. Build a career in related industries
The following fields are directly linked to the future space industry:
Robotics
AI and Machine Learning
Materials Science
Aerospace Engineering
Resource Economics
Your expertise might support space development.
4. Participate in the discussion
Space resource development requires legal and ethical debate.
Share your opinions on social media
Attend related symposiums
Participate in local science cafes
Democratic discussion is what leads to sound space development.
Epilogue: What the universe teaches us
In December 2024, we stand at a turning point in history.
Asteroid mining is not just a matter of technology.
This is a trial for humanity to leave the cradle of Earth and become a true spacefaring species.
A question
I have a question for you.
Do we truly need the resources of the universe?
Or is it more important to use Earth's resources carefully?
The answer might be both.
Utilizing space resources while protecting the Earth.
Advancing technology while not forgetting ethics.
Pursuing profit while considering the well-being of all humanity.
Striking this balance is the mission imposed upon us in the 21st century.
In conclusion
The 81.6 billion tons of platinum sleeping on 16 Psyche certainly holds the potential to solve humanity's resource problems.
However, what is even more important is the way humanity cooperates and grows through this challenge, isn't it?
In 2029, when NASA's probe arrives at 16 Psyche, we will take a new step forward.
At that time, where will you be and what will you be doing?
And, looking toward that future, what can you do today?
Space is waiting for us.
📌 Action Plan: 5 steps you can take starting today
To you who read this article and thought, 'I want to know more.'
Here is a concrete action plan you can start today.
Step 1: Follow information sources (Time required: 5 minutes)
NASA Psyche Mission Official Twitter/X: @NASAPsyche
JAXA Official Website: Institute of Space and Astronautical Science page
AstroForge Official Website
Step 2: Watch a documentary (Time required: 1 hour)
Netflix 'Journey to Space' series
NHK 'Cosmic Front'
National Geographic 'Mars: Inside SpaceX'
Step 3: Read related books (Time required: 1 week)
"The Impact of Space Business" by Hidetaka Aoki
"The Great Challenge of the Asteroid Explorer 'Hayabusa2'" by Yuichi Tsuda
"The Case for Space" by Robert Zubrin (English)
Step 4: Listen to expert lectures (Time required: 1-2 hours)
TED Talks: Space development related
Public lectures by the Planetary Society of Japan
Open courses from various universities
Step 5: Participate in discussions (Ongoing)
Search for hashtags #AsteroidMining #SpaceResources on social media
Join online communities
Share your opinions
Small steps lead to a big future.
💬 Let me hear your thoughts
What did you think after reading this article?
Do you think asteroid mining will become a reality?
What are your thoughts on the environmental impact?
Who do you think space resources belong to?
Please share your opinions in the comments section.
And, if you found this article interesting,please click the 'Like' button!
Your 'Like' helps convey the possibilities of space to more people.
📚 References and Data Sources
World Platinum Investment Council, "Platinum Quarterly Q4 2024"
NASA Psyche Mission Official Website
JAXA Institute of Space and Astronautical Science
Hein et al. (2020), "Economic Assessment of Asteroid Mining"
National Space Society, "Asteroid Resources"
U.S. SPACE Act (2015)
Japanese Space Resources Act (2021)
European Space Agency Debris Reports
MIT Space Systems Laboratory Publications
AstroForge Company Information
Thank you for reading until the end!
Please check out other articles if you are interested.
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