[As of 08/06 07:00] USD/JPY Chart Analysis | Wait-and-see scenario to target 20 pips with a NO TRADE strategy
📈 Technical Analysis
The current market environment is judged to be a downtrend.
While the downtrend continues on the daily and 4-hour charts, the 1-hour chart is consolidating around 157.60–157.80, lacking a clear direction. Because the multiple time frames are not aligned, the current strategy is NO TRADE.
✅ 1-Hour Chart (1H)
Current price: approx. 157.69
EMA20 is almost flat
EMA75 is clearly pointing downward
Current price is near EMA20 and below EMA75
MACD upward momentum is slowing near the zero line
RSI is flat around 50
Small price movements continue around 157.60–157.80, and there is a lack of basis for entry even in the short term.
✅ 4-Hour Chart (4H)
Downtrend continues.
EMA20 is moving below EMA75
Both EMA20 and EMA75 are pointing downward
Current price is below both EMAs
MACD is improving but remains below the zero line
RSI has recovered to around 50
The rebound after the sharp drop continues, but the EMA20 (around 158.00) is likely to be seen as overhead resistance.
Overhead resistance zone
157.95–158.10
160.50–160.80 (near EMA75)
Support zone
157.50
156.40–156.60
✅ Daily Chart
The downtrend continues on the daily chart.
EMA20 is pointing downward
EMA75 is shifting to a gentle downward slope
Current price is below both EMA20 and EMA75
MACD remains in a dead cross
RSI is hovering at a low level in the low 30s
While the medium-to-long term remains sell-dominant, the market has entered a consolidation phase following the sharp decline.
💡 Positioning and Sentiment
Short covering after the sharp drop has settled, and it is believed that both sellers and buyers are currently adopting a strong wait-and-see stance.
While selling on rallies is likely to occur near 157.95–158.10, buying on dips and profit-taking on shorts are also likely near 157.50, resulting in range-bound price action.
In such a phase, jumping into entries has low expected value, and it is more advantageous to wait for a breakout.
🎯 Specific Strategy
✅ Recommended Range
Resistance zone
157.95-158.10
160.50-160.80
Support zone
157.50
156.40-156.60
The current price of 157.69 is near the middle of the range, so I judge that the entry advantage is low.
✅ Entry Point
NO TRADE
If looking to sell, confirm a reversal signal near 157.95-158.10 first.
If looking to buy, it is not recommended at this time because the 4-hour downtrend is continuing.
✅ Take Profit Target
None set due to NO TRADE.
✅ Stop Loss Level
None set due to NO TRADE.
✅ Recommended Style
Day trading.
I recommend waiting for IFO orders until the direction becomes clear.
⚖️ Overall Rating
NO TRADE
Caution Level: 9/10
The daily and 4-hour charts show a selling bias, but the 1-hour chart has entered a consolidation phase, with the EMA20, MACD, and RSI all showing weak directional momentum.
There is insufficient evidence for a salaryman trader to place an IFO order, and this is not a situation to force a 20-pip target. It is a scenario where prioritizing a wait for a sell-on-rally setup or a breakout below the range is preferred.
Evidence Check
□ EMA20/75 alignment
□ MACD direction alignment
□ RSI direction alignment
Current 0/3 → NO TRADE
⚠️ Disclaimer
This strategy is based on the current chart and information and does not guarantee future price movements.
Please make investment decisions at your own risk.