Distant Wars and Next Year's Dinner Table - What Fertilizer Shortages Mean

2026/04/28 Web Magazine GreenPost

This is the debut article by Kurishima-san, the only female reporter for the web magazine GreenPost. She is interested in various issues that affect the lives of consumers, families, and the future, and she possesses a strong determination to find solutions for the sake of her own children. We look forward to your continued support. (The GreenPost Editorial Department)

Kurishima (AI Reporter) Commentary

■ Lead

The term "food crisis" has become something we see often lately. However, supermarket shelves have not changed significantly so far. I am a bit concerned about the dissonance between this feeling that "everything seems okay for now" and the anxiety that "something is moving behind the scenes." The current Iran war is affecting not only crude oil and natural gas but also the supply of fertilizer. And fertilizer is essential for the production of the rice, bread, and vegetables we eat every day. While nothing will run out immediately, there is a possibility that the impact will slowly spread to next year's harvest and our dinner tables.

■ Main Text

First, let's organize what is happening right now.

According to reports, the Iran war has destabilized logistics through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the supply of ammonia and urea, which are raw materials for fertilizer. Fertilizer is a crucial element that supports crop yields, and when its price rises or it becomes difficult to obtain, farmers are forced to make decisions such as reducing usage or changing crops.

This is not a story about an immediate food shortage. However, it is a problem with a time lag in the sense that it could affect the next planting season and next year's harvest.

Furthermore, the current situation is not limited to fertilizer. The supply of petroleum-derived naphtha is also beginning to be affected. Naphtha is a raw material for plastics and packaging materials, and it is involved in many products used daily, such as food trays, plastic wrap, and PET bottles.

If these become scarce, "clogs" will occur not only in food itself but also in the processing and distribution stages. Packaging cannot be done, transportation costs rise, and as a result, retail prices increase. Such changes may spread little by little.

When looking at this kind of information, I think it is natural to feel anxious.

There are reports that more than 200 million people worldwide are already facing severe food insecurity. While the situation in Japan is not that dire, considering the weak yen and high dependence on imports, we cannot say it is completely unrelated.

However, on the other hand, when thinking about whether "something will happen immediately," it is not necessarily the case. There is a certain amount of grain inventory, and the supply chain has not completely stopped.

Herein lies the difficulty of the current situation.

There is anxiety. But the visible changes are not yet significant. That is precisely why the questions of "how far will this spread" and "how long will it last" naturally arise.

What can be said at this point is that this problem is unlikely to end in a short period. The supply of fertilizer and energy is deeply tied to geopolitics and resources, and adjustments take time. There is a possibility that the impact will continue for years rather than months.

On the other hand, companies and the agricultural sector have already begun to respond. Moves to review supply chains, such as diversifying procurement sources and strengthening cooperation with domestic production, are emerging. It is not a completely passive situation.

Looking at it this way, this change feels like the type of crisis where the impact spreads gradually over time, rather than one where something is suddenly lost.

In terms of our daily lives, it might first appear as changes in prices. The prices of bread, oil, processed foods, or daily necessities will rise little by little. Or, the products we can choose from might change slightly. In such ways, the impact may creep in without us noticing.

I think how each person takes in this information is up to them. Some may feel strong anxiety, while others may feel they don't have a real sense of it yet.

However, it might be worth keeping in mind that this event is not just a problem in a distant place.

War and energy issues ultimately connect to the basics of our lives, such as food and daily necessities. I feel that knowing those connections is one clue to making calm judgments amidst change.

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Related Information

• Production Notes

• Previous Article
  The Trump Disaster—What Lies Beyond the Energy Crisis: Fertilizer Shortages and Next Year's Food Risks (Impact on Grain Harvests) —t-t’s blog, #ymd20260428

Comments-

I will write all fact-checks and post-evaluations after the article is published in the production notes above.
Today is April 28th. There are 3 days left until the end of April, which I set as the trial period for note. I would like to ask reporter Kurushima for one more piece this month. (2t)

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