Takarazuka Kinen 2022 Bread + Tea = Night Duty (Analysis 1)
Everyone's favorite 'Bread Tea Night Duty'
What kind of bread do you think the 'Pan' in Panthalassa is?
If my reading is correct, it's a melon pan. A melon pan. Melon Panthalassa. Definitely not a loaf of bread thalassa.
So, shall we take a look at the front-runners everyone is curious about? It'll be easier to visualize if I give them some character traits, so I'll go ahead and do that.
Character Comparison of the 3 Front-runners
・Panthalassa = Melon Pan Theory
Melon pan is delicious, isn't it? It's the perfect bread for light conversation—whether it's sweet, whether it actually contains melon, how you don't see the mobile sales wagons anymore, or how you hate it when it sticks to the back of your teeth.
But, you know, you get tired of it.
You get tired of it while you're eating it.
Sometimes you can finish it easily. It's a mystery!
Actually, there's a commonality between the lap times Panthalassa sets and melon pan.
Every time, the start is a good one, filled with excitement.
In the last four races, the horse has been building the race with the fastest segment speed up to about 700m-800m. After that, it's a horse that 'knows what it has to do,' which is to hang on with whatever energy it has left.
(In the 1800m Nakayama Kinen, it regained its breath in the final 4-3F segment, but this was relatively due to the others collapsing early.)
Basically, a 'start-only' guy.
It's like a Choro-Q toy, a Choro-Q. By the end, it's just finishing on inertial speed. Either it crosses the finish line while it still has speed, or it stops before it gets there. To put it briefly, that's how it feels.
By the way, this horse slows down by more than 2 seconds from its start time to the finish, so extending the distance is a negative.
When it wins, it's because it earned that much of a lead by running away. It's actually amazing, in a way.
There's a limit to how long you can make a Choro-Q run, right?
Where did the melon pan talk go...
Well, you know, you slow down while eating melon pan too, right? I wanted to convey that feeling.
Okay? Just remember that Panthalassa is a melon pan.
・Titleholder = Round-trip Slap Theory
In the Tenno Sho (Spring) and Nikkei Sho, it took the lead with the fastest lap in the first half, then dropped to the 13-second range during the middle of the race. This is a horse that has killed off the followers by changing the flow again with another pace-up.
It's a sadist that pulls away again the moment the chasing horses think, 'I finally caught up!'
It slaps your left cheek and then, with that same momentum, turns around to finish off your right cheek.The round-trip slap tacticis what it is.
Did you think there was only one dash? Heh heh, you fool!
The Arima Kinen was a swing and a miss at the start. It was fine that Panthalassa went ahead, but it kept pace until the 3rd furlong and couldn't use its specialty, the '13-second range cushion in the middle of the race,' resulting in a sloppy finish.
This cushion can only be used when it 'takes the lead and controls the race.' That is the important point this time.
In other words, 'taking the lead' is essential for this horse to 'run the race it wants to run.'
So, what if we let Panthalassa go and take the second position, which is effectively the head of the pack? That's the question. But the middle laps of the field should be faster than in the Tenno Sho (Spring). The back is being targeted, isn't it?
I'll answer that in my final verdict.
・African Gold = The Guy Who Only Tries Hard at the First Party of a Drinking Session Theory
Just a beer to start! Cheers! Yay! -> Then everyone, feel free to have whatever you like. That's the character.An overwhelming booster vibe.
Against a weak field, it can push through with just beer, but once people start drinking tequila or sake, it's already out of the loop. By the time everyone goes home, it's the 'Wait, where did that guy go?' character.
In terms of laps, it's the type that only tries hard for the first furlong and can't hold on after that.
However, if it competes with Panthalassa, the gap with the followers will widen by that much. If it gets swallowed by the pack early, it looks like it would be getting cared for by the girls near the back of the pack.
So, that's what I wanted to say: even among front-runners in the same category, the characters are this different. The melon pan part is actually irrelevant.
・Summary
Now that we've established the character traits, let's compare them using past lap times.
Panthalassa
→low 11-second range allows for a 3F near-front-running pace. Be careful, as the further out the gate, the more energy is spent just to get to the front.
Titleholder
→high 11-second range for a 3F front-running pace, then able to accelerate again from around the 6-7F mark to pull away from the pack. A one-man two-stage rocket.
African Gold
→ The first 1F start is comparable to Pan-kun. It's not impossible for him to hit the low 11-second range. However, he has that 'college freshman party animal' vibe—the type that gets all fired up and then immediately fizzles out.
Which means...
The Hanshin turf 2200m is 525m from the start to the first corner. By the time the formation is set and they enter the corner, it will likely be one of these three patterns:
① Panthalassa → African → Titleholder
② Panthalassa → (Titleholder, African)
③ A hellish scenario we've never seen before: Panthalassa = Titleholder = African
One of these three patterns is highly likely. This is where the gate, or rather, the
order of the three horses becomes the key point. The final race development and finishing order predictions after the gate draw will come after Analysis 1 and 2. Please forgive me, as this time is strictly for analyzing the characters of the front-runners. Since Panthalassa won't yield—or rather, since that's all he can do—Titleholder will be forced to choose between pushing through or yielding for a moment. That's why the order is so important.
Choro-Q vs. Sadist vs. Party Animal
The Takarazuka Kinen 2022 kicks off with this battle! I'm looking forward to it. If possible, I want to see hell.
Honestly, it's all about Titleholder's position relative to the other horses. It's about what kind of opening move he chooses. I guarantee that will determine the quality of the race.
Hmm? Melon pan? I ate it for a snack. I'm already sick of it (lol).
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