Even a 1% probability event will occur with about 63.4% probability if repeated 100 times | Daniel Bernoulli (May 31, 2025)

Daniel Bernoulli (1700-1782) was a Swiss mathematician and physicist who made significant contributions to fluid dynamics and probability theory.

In particular, Bernoulli's principle demonstrates that as fluid velocity increases, pressure decreases, and it is applied in a wide range of fields such as aerodynamics and hydraulics. He also analyzed the St. Petersburg paradox and introduced the concept of diminishing marginal utility, which continues to influence modern risk management and behavioral economics.

Struggling with the conflict with his father, Johann,he sought to master his studies.

Johann intended for Daniel to become a businessman rather than a mathematician, but Daniel had a strong interest in mathematics and physics and studied at the University of Basel at a young age. However, due to his father's opposition, he was forced to abandon the path of mathematics and study medicine.

When Daniel won the Paris Academy Grand Prize simultaneously with his father in 1734, Johann was enraged and banished Daniel from the house. This event led to a complete rupture in the father-son relationship, and Johann continued to hate Daniel until the end.

This conflict is thought to have been rooted inhis father Johann's strong pride and desire for control.Although influenced by his father, Daniel carved out his own path and left behind important achievements in fluid dynamics and probability theory. It can be said that his life was like a drama where talent and family conflict intersected.

Even an event with a 1% probability,
will occur with about a 63.4% probability if repeated 100 times

This is the "cumulative probability of Bernoulli trials,and it shows that even for an event with a low probability, if you repeat the trials, the probability of it occurring at least once becomes surprisingly high.

This concept is applied in behavioral economics and decision theory.

For example, in entrepreneurship or investment, one tends to think“It’s impossible because the probability of success is low,”but this suggests that by increasing the number of trials probabilistically, you can dramatically increase the chances of success. This also has commonalities with the analysis of risk preference inProspect Theory (Daniel Kahneman).It's quite interesting!

If there is even a slight possibility,
if you keep trying, you will get closer to success!
This kind of mindset is important!

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